Turnagain Pass Forecast Archives
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 Spring Conditions
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The CNFAIC has wrapped up operations and will no longer be posting conditions updates. Thank you to everyone for tuning in!! It was an interestingly chilly winter with many cold outflow wind events and a snowpack which struggled to stay near 50% of normal. Please see more in our Annual Report, which can be found [Read More] | ||
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Spring Conditions
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Saturday, Apr 18th UPDATE: DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS continue in the backcountry today and through the weekend. Travel in avalanche terrain is NOT recommended, avalanches can run into valley bottoms and be very large and dangerous. Yesterday was another very active avalanche day. The snowpack continued to ‘fall apart’ with multiple large to very large wet [Read More] | ||
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Friday, Apr 17th UPDATE: DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS exist in the backcountry today and through the weekend. Travel in avalanche terrain is NOT recommended, avalanches can run into valley bottoms and much further than expected. Hiking trails, such as Crow Pass and Byron Glacier, are threatened from avalanches occurring above. HEADS UP! Yesterday several large and [Read More] | ||
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Operations UPDATE: The CNFAIC Staff would like to thank everyone for their support during the past two weeks of suspended forecasts. We will be issuing our Springtime Tips this weekend. This weekend also marks the end of our regularly scheduled forecast season. We will continue to post observations and highlight any significant rise in avalanche [Read More] | ||
 Normal Caution
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As of Monday, March 30th, we have suspended backcountry avalanche forecasts for the Turnagain Pass region. Please see the official statement below. The avalanche danger has been LOW for the past two days and triggering an avalanche was unlikely; this trend is expected to continue until mid-week (April 1st) with clear and cool weather in [Read More] | ||
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Normal Caution
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The avalanche danger remains LOW in the backcountry surrounding Turnagain Pass. Triggering a slab avalanche or wet loose avalanche is unlikely. Watch for glide cracks and limit exposure under them. As always, give cornices a wide berth. [Read More] | ||
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Normal Caution
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The avalanche danger remains LOW in the backcountry surrounding Turnagain Pass. Triggering a slab avalanche or wet avalanche is unlikely. Watch for glide cracks and limit exposure under them. A few glide avalanches released two days ago. Additionally, give cornices a wide berth. [Read More] | ||
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Normal Caution
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The avalanche danger is LOW today as cooling temperatures have frozen much of the snowpack in place. On upper elevation northerly aspects where a surface crust doesn’t exist, watch for lingering wind slabs. Additionally, glide cracks are opening and these could release despite the cooler weather. SUMMIT LAKE: This area harbors a shallower snowpack with [Read More] | ||
 Wet Loose
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 Wind Slabs
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The avalanche danger is generally LOW today but could rise to MODERATE in the afternoon for triggering a wet loose avalanche on solar aspects in lower elevation terrain. Pay attention to changing surface conditions. In addition, there is still a chance of triggering a lingering wind slab on wind loaded slopes in the Alpine. As [Read More] | ||
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Wet Loose
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Wind Slabs
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Warm and wet weather moving in will keep the avalanche danger MODERATE for triggering a wet loose avalanche below 2,500′. Above this, triggering a lingering wind slab is still possible. Additionally, give cornices a wide berth. SUMMIT LAKE: This area harbors a shallower snowpack with weak snow in the mid and base of the pack. [Read More] | ||
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Wet Loose
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Wind Slabs
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The avalanche danger will become CONSIDERABLE at all elevations today as air temperatures rise and the direct sun begins to impact slopes. Triggering a wet loose avalanche will be likely on steeper slopes as the surface snow warms. Also, winds from the past few days have created windslabs 1-2′ thick in leeward terrain that will [Read More] | ||
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Wind Slabs
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Wet Loose
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The avalanche danger is MODERATE today. The outflow (northwest) wind event that started Saturday night will continue through the day. Human triggered wind slabs 1-2′ thick are possible in steep wind loaded terrain. Watch for blowing snow and wind effect. Late in the the day there is a chance of small wet loose avalanches on [Read More] | ||
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Wind Slabs
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Wet Loose
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Today the avalanche danger is MODERATE. 2-6 inches of snow yesterday and 15-30mph northwest winds today are likely to create new wind slabs on leeward terrain. Small sluffs in the new snow are expected in steeper terrain. Wet loose avalanches will be possible to trigger in lower elevations where winds are calm. SUMMIT LAKE: Increased [Read More] | ||
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Wind Slabs
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Wet Loose
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The avalanche danger will increase to MODERATE today due to several inches of new snow and increased easterly winds. Watch for shallow fresh wind slabs to form on wind loaded slopes at the higher elevations. Small sluffs in the new snow are also expected. In the lower elevations, wet loose avalanches will be possible to [Read More] | ||
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Normal Caution
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A generally LOW avalanche danger exists in the mountains surrounding Turnagain Pass. Low doesn’t mean no danger and there are several ‘Normal Caution’ issues to keep in mind. Watch for wet loose avalanches on any steep southerly slope that heats up this afternoon. Also, watch for dry sluffs on steep shaded slopes and shallow wind [Read More] | ||
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Wet Loose
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 Persistent Slabs
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Today the avalanche danger is MODERATE. Human triggered wet loose avalanches will be possible if sun crusts deteriorate on solar aspects, especially in steep rocky areas. Triggering a dry loose avalanche is possible on protected shaded aspects. As always give cornices and glide cracks a wide berth. Pay attention to changing surface conditions. There is a [Read More] | ||
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Wind Slabs
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Persistent Slabs
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Today the avalanche danger is MODERATE with increasing northwest winds and clearing skies. Pay attention to changing surface conditions. It will be possible to trigger small wind slabs on leeward aspects, wet loose avalanches on protected solar aspects and dry loose avalanches on protected shaded aspects. As always give cornices and glide cracks a wide [Read More] | ||
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Normal Caution
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Today the avalanche danger is LOW. A low danger does not mean no danger. Normal caution is advised for loose wet avalanches, cornices, thin wind slabs, and glide cracks. Loose dry avalanches are possible for a human to trigger on wind protected and shaded aspects. Remain aware of changing surface conditions. SUMMIT LAKE to SEWARD: Extra [Read More] | ||
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Wet Loose
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Persistent Slabs
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Today the avalanche danger is LOW this morning and could increase to CONSIDERABLE in the afternoon with sun effect and warm air temperatures. Pay attention to changing surface conditions. In the heat of the day natural moist loose snow avalanches are possible and human triggered sluffs will be likely. On steep slopes protected from the [Read More] | ||
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Persistent Slabs
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Today the avalanche danger is LOW and could rise to MODERATE as the sun and increasing temperatures penetrate the snowpack. As solar heating occurs, older slabs 1′-2′ thick and moist sluffs could become easier to initiate on steep slopes. On steep slopes protected from the sun and wind, loose snow is expected to be easily [Read More] | ||
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Persistent Slabs
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The avalanche danger remains MODERATE for triggering a slab avalanche 1-2′ thick. These are most likely to be found on the steeper slopes and could be old wind slabs or simply soft slabs that are sitting on weak facets or buried surface hoar. Slopes seeing strong solar heating are more likely to be triggered. Easily [Read More] | ||
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Persistent Slabs
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A MODERATE avalanche danger exists at all elevations. It remains possible for a person to trigger a slab avalanche around 1-2 feet thick. Steep wind loaded terrain is the most likely place to trigger a slab. Slabs may be sitting on buried surface hoar, making them break out larger than expected. Additionally, watch for surface [Read More] | ||
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Persistent Slabs
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The avalanche danger remain MODERATE at all elevations. Triggering a slab around 1-2′ deep that fails on buried surface hoar is possible, especially in steep wind loaded terrain. Watch for sluffing on steep protected slopes and signs of surface heating on solar aspects. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully. SUMMIT LAKE to LOST LAKE and SEWARD: South of Turnagain [Read More] | ||
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Wind Slabs
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 Deep Persistent Slabs
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The avalanche danger is MODERATE at all elevations. With another day of northwest winds, watch for blowing snow and wind affected surface snow. Triggering a wind slab around 1-2′ deep in steep wind loaded terrain is possible. Additionally, there is still a chance of triggering a deep persistent slab. Watch for sluffing on steep protected [Read More] | ||
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Wind Slabs
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Deep Persistent Slabs
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The avalanche danger remains MODERATE and may rise to CONSIDERABLE in the Alpine this afternoon as northwest outflow winds impact the region. Watch for winds actively moving snow. It’s possible to trigger a wind slab around 1-2′ deep in steep wind loaded terrain. Additionally, there is still a chance of triggering a deep persistent slab. Avoid travel on [Read More] | ||
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Wind Slabs
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Deep Persistent Slabs
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The avalanche danger is MODERATE today at all elevations. Triggering a wind slab around 1-2′ deep is possible in steep wind loaded terrain. Additionally, there is still a chance of triggering a deep persistent slab. Avoid travel on or underneath cornices and watch your sluff on steep protected slopes. SUMMIT LAKE: South of Turnagain Pass the overall [Read More] | ||
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Wind Slabs
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Deep Persistent Slabs
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The avalanche danger is MODERATE today at all elevations. It will be possible to trigger a wind slab 6-18″ deep. Watch for blowing snow and pay attention to surface conditions. Additionally, a deep persistent slab problem 3-6′ thick is still a concern. Avoid travel on or underneath cornices and watch your sluff on steep protected [Read More] | ||
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Wind Slabs
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Deep Persistent Slabs
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The avalanche danger remains MODERATE. Finding and triggering a wind slab avalanche, around a foot thick, remains possible. These could be older wind slabs or new ones in areas seeing enough wind to transport snow today. They also may break wider than anticipated as some could be sitting on buried surface hoar. Additionally, there is still [Read More] | ||
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Wind Slabs
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Deep Persistent Slabs
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The avalanche danger is MODERATE today. Triggering a wind slab avalanche around a foot deep will be still possible on slopes that were loaded by the recent outflow (west/northwest wind) event. Additionally, triggering a very large avalanche breaking in weak snow 3-6 feet deep remains a concern region-wide. Avoid travel on or underneath cornices, watch your [Read More] | ||
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Wind Slabs
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Deep Persistent Slabs
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The avalanche danger remains MODERATE today. Northwest outflow winds will continue to impact the region. Watch for winds actively moving snow and wind effect on the snow surface. Wind slab avalanches around a foot thick will be possible to trigger on freshly loaded slopes. Additionally, triggering a very large avalanche breaking in weak snow 3-6 feet [Read More] | ||
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Wind Slabs
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Deep Persistent Slabs
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The avalanche danger remains MODERATE and may rise to CONSIDERABLE tonight as northwest outflow winds impact the region. Watch for winds that could be actively moving snow. Wind slab avalanches around a foot thick will be possible to trigger on freshly loaded slopes. Additionally, triggering a very large avalanche breaking in weak snow 3-6 feet [Read More] | ||
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Wind Slabs
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Deep Persistent Slabs
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The avalanche danger is MODERATE at all elevations. Triggering a wind slab is possible in steep wind loaded terrain. In addition, triggering a very large and dangerous deep slab avalanche remains a concern across the forecast area. Avoid travel on or under cornices and watch for sluffing in steep protected terrain. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully. SUMMIT [Read More] | ||
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Wind Slabs
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Deep Persistent Slabs
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The avalanche danger is MODERATE at all elevations. Triggering a wind slab is possible in steep wind loaded terrain. In addition, triggering a very large and dangerous deep slab avalanche remains a concern across the forecast area. Avoid travel on or under cornices and watch for sluffing in steep protected terrain. Evaluate snow and terrain [Read More] | ||
 Storm Slabs
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Deep Persistent Slabs
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The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE today at all elevations. Relatively warm temperatures, steady 20mph winds gusting to 60mph, and 4″-8″ of new snow make it likely for a person to trigger a storm slab or wind slab. Additionally, it remains possible for a human to trigger a weak layer buried 3-6′ beneath a dense slab. If initiated, [Read More] | ||
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Deep Persistent Slabs
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Wind Slabs
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The avalanche danger remains a scary MODERATE today and may increase to CONSIDERABLE overnight with new snow and wind on the way. Today, the main concern is triggering a large and dangerous slab avalanche that breaks in weak snow 3-6 feet deep. The likelihood is slowly decreasing, but the possibility remains. Other avalanche issues are [Read More] | ||
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Wind Slabs
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Wind Slabs
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The avalanche danger is ‘scary MODERATE‘ due to possibility that a person could trigger a very large and dangerous slab avalanche. These slabs are 3-6′ thick and sitting on weak faceted snow. They could be triggered on, near or even below a slope. Although the likelihood of triggering is slowly decreasing, the consequences could still be [Read More] | ||
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Deep Persistent Slabs
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The avalanche danger is a ‘scary MODERATE‘ for the chance a person could trigger a very large and dangerous slab avalanche. These slabs are 3-6′ thick and sitting on weak faceted snow. They could be triggered on, near or even below a slope. Although the likelihood of triggering is slowly decreasing, the consequences could be [Read More] | ||
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Deep Persistent Slabs
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Wind Slabs
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The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE today. New snow overnight and moderate winds have made triggering a wind slab likely in steep wind loaded terrain. Natural avalanches are possible as loading continues today. In addition, it remains possible for a human to trigger a large and deadly slab avalanche 3-8+ feet deep on slopes steeper than 30 [Read More] | ||
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Deep Persistent Slabs
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Wind Slabs
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The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE above 1000′. It remains possible for a human to trigger a large and deadly slab avalanche 3′-8’+ deep. New snow forecast for this afternoon into the evening adds load to a snowpack that has concerning deep weak layers. Avoid travel on or under cornices, and in steep terrain consider the [Read More] | ||
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Deep Persistent Slabs
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Wind Slabs
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We have issued a Special Avalanche Bulletin through the National Weather Service for the Turnagain Pass area and surrounding mountains. Today the avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE above 1000′ due to the potential size and consequences of triggering an avalanche. It remains possible for a human to trigger a large and deadly slab avalanche 3-8+ deep on slopes [Read More] | ||
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Wind Slabs
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Deep Persistent Slabs
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We have issued a Special Avalanche Bulletin through the National Weather Service for the Turnagain Pass area and surrounding mountains. Today the avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE at all elevations from Girdwood, though Turnagain Pass to Seward. Steady northwest winds throughout the day are expected to create wind slabs that could release naturally or likely triggered by a [Read More] | ||
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Deep Persistent Slabs
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Wind Slabs
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A CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger remains at all elevations from Girdwood, though Turnagain Pass to Seward. There are many avalanche concerns, but the most dangerous is the potential that someone could trigger a large and deadly slab avalanche on slopes 30 degrees or steeper. These slabs are unmanageable and range from 3-6′ thick. They could be triggered [Read More] | ||
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Storm Slabs
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Deep Persistent Slabs
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A CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger exists at all elevations region-wide, from Girdwood, though Turnagain Pass and the Kenai to Seward. Large and deadly slab avalanches will be likely to trigger on slopes 30 degrees or steeper. These slabs range from 3-6′ thick and are nothing to mess with. They could be triggered from the ridge above [Read More] | ||
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Storm Slabs
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Deep Persistent Slabs
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The avalanche danger remains HIGH today due to another day of heavy snowfall and strong winds in the mountains surrounding Turnagain Pass, Girdwood Valley, Portage Valley, and areas on the Kenai including Summit Lake and the Seward/Lost Lake zone. Dangerous avalanche conditions are expected on all slopes 30 degrees and steeper – including runout zones. [Read More] | ||
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Storm Slabs
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Deep Persistent Slabs
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The avalanche danger is HIGH for a second day in a row due to heavy snowfall and strong winds in the mountains surrounding Turnagain Pass, Girdwood Valley, Portage Valley, and areas on the Kenai including Summit Lake and the Seward/Lost Lake zone. Dangerous avalanche conditions are expected on all slopes 30 degrees and steeper – [Read More] | ||
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Storm Slabs
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Deep Persistent Slabs
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We have issued a BACKCOUNTRY AVALANCHE WARNING through the National Weather Service for the Turnagain Pass area and surrounding mountains. Heavy snowfall, rain, and strong winds have created a HIGH avalanche danger in the mountains surrounding Turnagain Pass, Girdwood Valley, Portage Valley, and areas on the Kenai including Summit Lake and the Seward zone. Dangerous avalanche conditions [Read More] | ||
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Storm Slabs
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Persistent Slabs
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The avalanche danger will rise to CONSIDERABLE as the region is impacted by a storm today and tonight. Strong winds, rising temperatures and new snow will create wind and storm slabs and tender cornices. Human triggered avalanches will become likely and naturals will be possible. In addition, weak snow deeper in the snowpack has the [Read More] | ||
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Persistent Slabs
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The avalanche danger is MODERATE at all elevations. It’s possible for a human to trigger a large slab avalanche 1-4′ below the snow surface. Although the likelihood of triggering these slab avalanches is slowly decreasing, the consequences could be deadly. Conservative terrain choices and decision making are necessary to limit the danger. Additionally, cornice breaks remain [Read More] | ||
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Persistent Slabs
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Wind Slabs
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The avalanche danger is a ‘scary MODERATE‘ at all elevations. Triggering a large slab avalanche, 2-4′ thick, is possible. Although the likelihood of triggering is slowly decreasing, the consequences could be deadly. This is due to buried weak layers 2-4’ below the snow surface. It is a tricky setup and a continued cautious mind set [Read More] | ||
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Persistent Slabs
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Wind Slabs
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The avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE above 1,000′. Triggering a large and deadly slab avalanche 2-4′ thick remains possible along with triggering smaller avalanches such as wind slabs 1-2′ thick and cornice falls. Due to the size and destructive nature of triggering a large slab, we need to be on guard, be conservative and consider the [Read More] |
Below are archived forecasts for the past five years with the highest danger rating and Avalanche Problem 1 displayed in the chart. Click on a table cell to read the forecast for that day.