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The avalanche danger will rise to CONSIDERABLE above 2500′ today, as winds pick up in the afternoon forming fresh wind slabs roughly 1′ deep. Natural and human triggered wind slabs will become more likely as the winds increase throughout the day. Glide avalanches are a major concern right now due to the potential for creating very large avalanches 4-6′ deep and their unpredictable nature. Glide cracks have been observed across the forecast area and we recommend giving them a wide berth and trying to avoid travelling underneath them. Avalanches on a buried weak layer 2-4′ deep are also a concern in isolated areas where the weak layers remain intact. Below 2500′ the avalanche danger is MODERATE.
Girdwood Forecaster Chat – Friday, Jan 19th! Mark your calendars for Andrew Schauer’s discussion on the different shades of MODERATE danger at the Girdwood Brewing Co. (6:30pm Jan 19). More details HERE.
Sun, January 14th, 2024 |
Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
No recent avalanches were reported yesterday. Glide avalanches on Sunburst, Penguin Ridge, and Seattle Ridge from Wednesday and Thursday are the most recent known avalanches.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Glide avalanches continue to release across the forecast area, causing very large and destructive avalanches 4-6′ deep on commonly traveled routes. While it is normal for us to have occasional glide avalanches throughout the winter during most seasons, the past few weeks have been unique because of the frequency of glide avalanches and how widespread glide cracks are. A few notable events include a glide release on the Repeat Offender slide path which threatens the motorized uptrack on Seattle Ridge, one just below the normal skin track on Sunburst, and an older release on the SW face of Cornbiscuit. Just because these areas have already had glide avalanches does not mean that they are safe now. Many areas still have widespread glide cracks above popular routes, which can spontaneously release at any time.
The best way to manage this unique avalanche hazard is to avoid spending time underneath glide cracks. This is easier said than done on days like today where poor visibility can obscure your ability to see the slopes above you. If you find yourself needing to travel under a glide crack, try to minimize your time on that slope and spread out your group so you are not all exposed at the same time. The randomness and huge destructive potential of glide avalanches make them a scary hazard.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Strong winds Friday morning likely formed wind slabs 1-2′ deep along upper elevation ridgelines that could still be possible for a person to trigger. Today the winds will start off light but are expected to increase throughout the day and return to averages of 20-30 mph and gusts to 50 mph out of the E by this afternoon. This fresh round of winds will build another generation of wind slabs roughly 1′ deep at upper elevations. To avoid accidentally triggering a wind slab keep an eye out for active wind transport along ridgelines, shooting cracks, and hollow or drum like snow. Jumping on small, steep slopes can be a good way to determine how reactive wind slabs are.
It’s been almost a week since the last big storm triggered a cycle of large avalanches that we believe failed on a weak layer of facets and surface hoar that was buried on January 2nd. The only human triggered avalanche we know of on this layer was in Main Bowl on Seattle ridge and was remotely triggered by a group of snowmachiners riding along the adjacent ridge. Observations from across the region this week have hinted that the distribution of the Jan. 2 buried surface hoar is spotty. On isolated slopes where the buried surface hoar remains intact it could still be possible to trigger an avalanche 2-4′ deep. This is most likely in sheltered bowls and areas that have not seen much traffic in recent days like Lynx Creek, Silvertip, or Johnson Pass. Due to the depth of the weak layer it is difficult to assess without stopping to dig a snowpit. Stability tests like a compression test (CT) or extended column test (ECT) can be useful to determine if there is a concerning buried weak layer in the area you are travelling, especially if you get propagation across your column in an ECT.
Forecaster Daniel Krueger conducting a crown profile on the avalanche that was remotely triggered in Main Bowl on January 8th, 2024. Photo 1.9.24
Yesterday: Mostly cloudy skies with light to moderate snowfall but minimal snow accumulation (1-3″). Temperatures were in the low 30s to mid 20s F at lower elevations and in the upper teens F at upper elevations. Winds were strongest Friday morning with averages of 15-25 mph and gusts to 50 mph out of the ENE. In the afternoon and overnight the winds died down to averages of 5-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph out of the ENE.
Today: Another storm front will move through the forecast area this afternoon. Winds will start out light this morning with averages of 10-20 mph out of the SE and increase throughout the day. By this evening winds are expected to average 20-30 mph with gusts to 50 mph out of the E. Light snowfall will accompany this storm front and is expected to start around 2 pm. Snow accumulation is expected to be minimal in Turnagain Pass and Girdwood with roughly 1″ falling on Saturday, but totals could be higher closer to Portage and Placer. Rain line will creep up to 500′ overnight on Saturday.
Tomorrow: Unsettled weather is expected to continue throughout Sunday, with light snowfall but limited snow accumulation. Rain line should drop back down to sea level Sunday morning, as temperatures decrease throughout the day. Winds should shift the the south and decrease to averages of 5-15 mph in the first half of the day on Sunday before shifting to the SW and remaining light in the afternoon. Cloud cover is expected to decrease Sunday afternoon with periods of broken skies and improved visibility.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | 24 | 0 | 0.0 | 86 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 25 | 0 | 0.0 | 36 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 26 | 2 | 0.15 | 86 |
Bear Valley – Portage (132′) | 32 | 3 | 0.34 | – |
Grouse Ck – Seward (700′) | 30 | 1 | 0.1 | 50 |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | 17 | ENE | 14 | 55 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 20 | SE | 7 | 21 |
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South | H Thamm |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side | Amy Holman |
05/12/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Warm up Bowl | Tony Naciuk |
05/07/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs | A S |
04/29/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Turnagain aerial obs | Tully Hamer |
04/27/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Johnson Pass | Noah Mery |
04/23/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Sunny Side | Travis SMITH |
04/21/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Bertha Creek | Anonymous |
04/20/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Spokane Creek | Schauer/ Mailly Forecaster |
04/16/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Cornbiscuit | Krueger / Matthys Forecaster |
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