Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast
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The avalanche danger remains HIGH as a warm storm continues to impact the area. Rain, snowfall, and strong wind has been overloading the snowpack. Many natural avalanches were seen yesterday, which may continue through today. Human-triggered avalanches will be very likely. Travel in and below avalanche terrain is not recommended.
* Roof Avalanches: Light rain and above-freezing temperatures will keep roof avalanches likely through today. Be sure to keep an eye on children and pets, and be careful where you park your vehicles.
Road Conditions: Dangerous road conditions were seen along the Seward Highway yesterday from Anchorage to Seward. Checking 511.alaska.gov is one way to keep up to date.
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Despite the limited ability to travel along the roads and no known reports from the backcountry, many avalanche paths seen from the highway had fresh debris in them. It is clear a natural avalanche cycle was occurring yesterday, we are just not sure of the extent yet.
Fresh avalanche debris in the 5 Sisters slide path in Portage Valley. This path sits next to the 5 Fingers ice climbs. 12.26.22.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
The first storm in a series of storms is slowing down this morning. Light rain is expected up to 1,000′ with light snowfall above this. Ridgetop winds will continue from the east but have backed off to the 20-30mph range. Despite the slowing of the storm, avalanche danger remains HIGH. Road conditions could also remain dangerous. I attempted to drive to Turnagain Pass yesterday and was turned around due to incredibly slick roads.
How the snowpack is responding to the onslaught of rain, warm snow, and wind is pretty clear from debris in the few avalanche paths seen along the Seward Highway. Today, natural avalanche activity should slow down but probably won’t entirely stop until cooler temperatures settle in and winds become light. We can expect all the varieties of storm avalanches: wet loose avalanches due to rain on snow below 2,000′, wind slabs releasing on wind loaded slopes in the higher elevations, storm slabs releasing in the weak older snow that the new snow is falling on, and dry snow sluffs in steep terrain.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Hopefully we can get some breaks in cloud cover to assess the extent of the recent avalanche activity. We are especially interested to see if avalanches are breaking deeper in the snowpack, in faceted snow around the old Thanksgiving crust. This would create a larger avalanche that could propagate wider than your typical wind slab or storm slab. As we move forward in time, understanding if these old weak layers could be triggered by people will be one of our biggest questions. For now however, avoiding avalanche terrain and letting the mountains do their thing is recommended.
Yesterday: Warm, wet, and windy… Moderate to heavy rain fell to 2,000′, possibly higher yesterday with heavy snowfall above this (.5 to 2″ of water in the past 24-hours, equating to 5-20″ of snowfall up high). Ridgetop east winds were 25-45mph with gusts near 70mph. Temperatures hovered near 35F from 2,000′ and below and were near 25-30F along the peaks.
Today: The stormy weather should continue through today although precipitation rates and winds will be less than yesterday. Between .25 and .5″ of rain is expected at 1,000′ and below while 3-5″ of snow should fall at the high elevations. Ridgetop winds look to be 15-25mph with gusts near 40mph from and easterly direction. Temperatures will slowly decrease through the the day (mid 30’s at sea level and ~32F at 2,000′).
Tomorrow: The active storm pattern should remain tomorrow with light precipitation, strong ridgetop easterly winds, and cooling temperatures. The rain/snow line could drop to close to sea level by tomorrow morning. Stronger pulses of moisture look to hit Friday and into the New Year.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | 35 | rain | 0.3 | 41 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 35 | rain | 0.1 | 28 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 35 | rain | 0.7 | 38 |
Bear Valley – Portage (132′) | 40 | rain | 2 | – |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | 26 | NE | 35 | 69 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 29 | SE | 12 | 24 |
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
01/29/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan Backdoor | AAS-Level 1 1/27-1/30 |
01/28/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Sunburst | Brooke Edwards |
01/28/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Seattle Ridge | W Wagner |
01/28/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan Common | Tony Naciuk |
01/27/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Sunburst | John Sykes |
01/27/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Lynx Creek | Megan Guinn / W Wagner |
01/25/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Cornbiscuit | John Sykes Forecaster |
01/22/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | Schauer/ Guinn |
01/21/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Seattle Ridge | Elias Holt |
01/21/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Lynx drainage – avalanche | CNFAIC Staff |
Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us
Area | Status | Weather & Riding Conditions |
---|---|---|
Glacier District |
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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.