Turnagain Pass |
Archives |
The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE above 1000′ today. Winds are expected to increase dramatically throughout the day, which will increase the likelihood of natural and human triggered wind slab avalanches 1-2′ deep at upper elevations. Human triggered avalanches are still possible 1.5-3′ deep underneath the new storm snow from this week, although there is a lot of uncertainty about the potential to trigger an avalanche on this layer. Glide avalanches are also possible and it is important to avoid spending time underneath glide cracks. Below 1000′ the avalanche danger is MODERATE.
Girdwood Forecaster Chat – Friday, Jan 19th!
Mark your calendars for Andrew Schauer’s discussion on the different shades of MODERATE danger at the Girdwood Brewing Co. (6:30pm Jan 19). More details HERE.
Sun, January 7th, 2024 |
Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
We got limited information from the field yesterday and did not hear of any human triggered avalanches. The only avalanche reported was a glide release on Seattle Ridge on the ‘Repeat Offender’ slide path. This path is a major hazard for motorized folks heading up Seattle Ridge and it is a relief that it released without any known human involvement. Unfortunately there are multiple glide cracks in this area, so just because one released does not necessarily mean the glide problem is resolved for the Seattle uptrack.
Glide release on ‘Repeat Offender’, which is the avalanche path that looms over the Seattle Ridge uptrack. Photo Brian Murphy 1.5.24
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Today is looking like an ‘early bird gets the worm’ kind of day, with a brief calm period expected through midday before a strong storm front moves into the area. Winds will start off light, averaging 5-10 mph from the east, and gradually increase throughout the day. By this evening we are expecting east winds to average 40-60 mph with gusts of 80 mph+. Snowfall is expected to start around 3 pm today and continue throughout Sunday, with 15-30″ of new snow above 1000′ from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening.
Our main concerns before the storm arrives are wind slabs at upper elevations and the lingering potential for a storm slab to release at the interface with the old snow surface. Yesterday’s windy weather likely formed wind slabs about 1′ deep along ridgelines at upper elevations. The increasing winds today will create a fresh batch of wind slabs 1-2′ deep. To monitor the development of fresh wind slabs keep an eye out for active wind transport along ridgelines and check for shooting cracks by getting off the skin track or trail in wind affected areas to get a feel for the snow.
The snow surface that was buried during Wednesday’s storm consisted of weak snow grains, like facets and surface hoar, which means it is still possible to trigger an avalanche at the interface between the storm layers. This interface is buried about 1.5-2′ deep in Turnagain Pass and Girdwood and closer to 2-3′ deep in Portage and Placer. Field observations the past few days have showed mixed results on whether this layer is still concerning or not, but since there is the potential to trigger a large avalanche on this layer we recommend a cautious approach to avalanche terrain today. You can use small, steep test slopes to check how well the new snow is bonding to the old snow surface and dig into the snow using hand pits or snow pits to get a little more information about this layer in the area you are travelling. If you want to avoid the problem entirely you can always stick to lower angle terrain.
Snowpit test that failed at the interface with the old snow surface about 2′ deep. Photo 1.4.24
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
The glide avalanche mayhem continues, with a fresh release reported above the Seattle Ridge uptrack yesterday. It is important to be vigilant and continuously assess the terrain above you to identify glide cracks. We recommend avoiding spending time underneath glide cracks altogether, but if it is unavoidable you can spread out your group and move as quickly as possible. When these avalanches release they take the whole snowpack, which results in a very large and destructive avalanche.
Large glide crack lurking under the Tincan Library. Photo 1.4.24
Yesterday: Mostly cloudy with periods of broken sky cover and temperatures in the low 20s F at upper elevations and high 20s to low 30s F at lower elevations. No significant new snowfall. Winds were moderate yesterday morning, with averages of 10-20 mph and gusts to 35 mph out of the east, and gradually decreased throughout the day to averages of 5-10 mph and gusts to 20 mph out of the east in the evening and overnight.
Today: Saturday will be the calm period before the next big storm moves into the forecast area. Winds are expected to start off averaging 5-10 mph out of the east this morning and gradually increase to averages of 20-35 mph out of the east this afternoon. Overnight tonight the winds will continue to increase, with averages of 40-60 mph and gusts of 100 mph possible early Sunday morning. Along with the strong winds will come another round of snow, which will start off light around 3pm and become more intense overnight. Between Saturday afternoon and Sunday at 7am we are expecting 5-7″ of new snow. Rain line should remain in the range of 400-700′ throughout the storm.
Tomorrow: The peak intensity for snowfall is expected to be Sunday morning, with an additional 14-18″ of new snow expected to fall from Sunday morning through Sunday evening. Strong winds will persist throughout the day on Sunday with averages of 50-60 mph and gusts of 80 mph+ out of the east. Rain line is expected to remain at 500-700′ throughout Sunday.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | 26 | 0 | 0.0 | 84 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 23 | 0 | 0.0 | N/A |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 29 | trace | 0.03 | 76 |
Bear Valley – Portage (132′) | 35 | rain | 0.28 | – |
Grouse Ck – Seward (700′) | 33 | 2 | 0.2 | 51 |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | 21 | ENE | 10 | 36 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 24 | SE | 6 | 17 |
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South | H Thamm |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side | Amy Holman |
05/12/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Warm up Bowl | Tony Naciuk |
05/07/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs | A S |
04/29/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Turnagain aerial obs | Tully Hamer |
04/27/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Johnson Pass | Noah Mery |
04/23/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Sunny Side | Travis SMITH |
04/21/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Bertha Creek | Anonymous |
04/20/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Spokane Creek | Schauer/ Mailly Forecaster |
04/16/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Cornbiscuit | Krueger / Matthys Forecaster |
The riding areas page has moved. Please click here & update your bookmarks.
Subscribe to Turnagain Pass
Avalanche Forecast by Email