Turnagain Pass
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The avalanche danger will start out MODERATE and rise to CONSIDERABLE above 2500′ this afternoon, as strong NW outflow winds are expected to pick up around 3pm. The chances of both natural and human triggered wind slab avalanches 1-2′ deep will increase quickly once the winds pick up and start transporting snow.
Glide avalanches are also a concern above 1000′, where the avalanche danger is MODERATE. These avalanches are very large and release randomly. It is important to keep an eye out for glide cracks above you and try to avoid hanging out underneath them. Deeper avalanches releasing 2-4′ deep on a buried weak layer are still a concern in the remote corners of the forecast area where we have limited information. Below 1000′ the avalanche danger is LOW.
Summit Lake / Seward / Lost Lake: The NW outflow winds we are expecting this afternoon tend to impact these areas heavily. Avalanche danger will increase quickly once winds start to transport snow.
Girdwood Forecaster Chat – Friday, Jan 19th! Mark your calendars for Andrew Schauer’s discussion on the different shades of MODERATE danger at the Girdwood Brewing Co. (6:30pm Jan 19). More details HERE.
Wed, January 17th, 2024 |
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Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
The active glide avalanche cycle continues across the forecast area. These can release at random and take the entire 5-7′ deep snowpack with them, creating very large and destructive avalanches. Thankfully the clear skies should make it easier to spot glide cracks today. During these periods where glide avalanches are occurring frequently it is important to be extra aware of the slopes above you and look for open glide cracks or a wrinkly snow texture to indicate where glide cracks exist. We recommend avoiding travelling underneath glide cracks, or if it is unavoidable try to minimize your time underneath.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
NW outflow winds are expected to increase this afternoon, with averages of 20-30 mph and gusts up to 50 mph possible. These strong winds tend to be concentrated along gaps in the terrain where the cold interior air can escape to the coast. Common gap wind areas include Turnagain Arm, Portage, and Seward. Wind slabs have the potential to form quickly due to the soft snow currently on the surface. To identify areas with potential wind slabs keep an eye out for active snow transport, shooting cracks, or hollow and drum like snow in the area you are travelling. Due to the nature of how these gaps winds channel through the terrain, it is possible for wind slabs to form at lower elevations and in unusual locations versus our typical easterly storm winds.
We still have lingering concerns about the potential to trigger an avalanche on a buried weak layer 2-4′ deep. It has been just over a week since the last human triggered avalanche on a buried weak layer, so at this point we think it is unlikely for a person to trigger an avalanche like this. However, in the far flung corners of our forecast zone, like Johnson Pass, Lynx Creek, or Silvertip, where the snowpack tends to be thinner we still recommend evaluating the snowpack carefully to check for buried weak layers before committing to steep terrain.
Yesterday: Clear skies and cooling temperatures, with highs in the teens F at mid and upper elevations and single digits F at lower elevations due to a temperature inversion. Winds were mostly light averaging 5-10 mph with gusts to 20 mph out of the NW. Gap winds started to increase, with higher winds in areas like Turnagain Arm and Seward. No new snowfall.
Today: High pressure continues to build across the region, with clear skies and cool temperatures expected today. Temperature inversions are likely in many areas, with current temps at the road in Turnagain Pass in the single digits F and closer to 20 F at ridgetop elevations. Winds are expected to remain light at 5-15 mph out of the NW through the afternoon. Around 3pm winds are expected to increase to 20-30 mph out of the N and temperatures will start to decrease towards single digits. Gap winds in areas like Turnagain Arm, Portage, and Seward are expected to increase dramatically this afternoon.
Tomorrow: Clear skies and cold temperatures in the low teens to single digits F will continue through Wednesday. Strong N winds will also continue to push through gaps as cold air tries to escape from the interior. Areas like Turnagain Arm, Seward, the Matanuska Valley, and Thompson Pass are expected to see very strong winds, with gusts up to 50-60 mph possible.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | 15 | 0 | 0 | 82 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 7 | 0 | 0 | NA |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 16 | 0 | 0 | 82 |
Bear Valley – Portage (132′) | 15 | 0 | 0 | – |
Grouse Ck – Seward (700′) | 15 | 0 | 0 | 51 |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | 20 | W | 10 | 19 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 17 | SSE | 1 | 7 |
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
10/27/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan | Michael Kerst |
10/21/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Road Observation | Trevor Clayton |
10/19/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan – Below Todds Run | Andy Moderow |
10/18/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Taylor Pass | Eli Neuffer |
10/15/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan Common | John Sykes Forecaster |
10/14/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | CNFAC Staff |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South | H Thamm |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side | Amy Holman |
05/12/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Warm up Bowl | Tony Naciuk |
05/07/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs | A S |
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