Turnagain Pass
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The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE above 1000′ today. At mid and upper elevations strong winds overnight blew snow into fresh wind slabs 1′ deep or deeper. These may become larger as strong winds continue all day, releasing naturally, and will be easy for person to trigger. The avalanche danger is MODERATE below 1000′ where wet loose avalanches are possible due to above freezing temperatures overnight.
SEWARD/LOST LAKE: Up to 10″ of new snow and rain (1″ SWE) is forecast in the Seward and Lost Lake zones which may increase the size and chance of natural and human triggered wind slab avalanches 1 to 2′ deep. Depending on how much snow falls, storm slabs could also release naturally or be easy to trigger. Wet loose avalanches could be possible on slopes affected by rain and above freezing temperatures as the rain line is expected to reach 1700′ today.
FRIDAY – AVALANCHE OUTLOOK: Strong east winds are expected to continue into Friday afternoon making natural wind slab avalanches possible and likely for a person to trigger. Partly sunny skies and temperatures forecast in the low 40’s could increase the chance of wet loose avalanches on east, south, and west slopes.
Avalanche Center End of Season Operations: We are continuing to issue forecasts on Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday mornings. For the non-forecast days we will give an avalanche outlook on the day prior. The final forecast for the season will be April 28.
Fri, April 19th, 2024 |
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Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
With limited observations there have been no avalanches reported since Monday when a glide avalanche was reported on Penguin Ridge. On Sunday April 14, small wet loose avalanches were seen on Sunburst’s steep south facing slopes.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
It looks like this storm brought more wind than snow. Strong northeast winds pounded Turnagain Pass for 11 hours with winds averaging 50+ mph overnight and gusting around 100 mph! This likely blew new and old snow from mid to upper elevations into touchy wind slabs 1′ deep that will continue to get larger throughout the day. These may release naturally and will be easy trigger. They could be hard wind slabs which may allow someone to get way out on to a slope before they trigger an avalanche. In some places they may be forming over a crust which is a great bed surface for snow to slide on. This problem can be found at upper AND mid elevations along ridgelines, rollovers, in cross loaded gullies and in the trees. Look out for shooting cracks, firm snow over soft snow, and test small slopes to see if you can safely trigger small avalanches. While we recommend a conservative approach into avalanche terrain, steep wind loaded slopes will be easy to trigger, and it may be hard to find enjoyable conditions today.
Strong northeast winds recorded at Sunburst. In Girdwood and Portage strong winds were also reported.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
In Turnagain pass, temperatures are already above freezing and are expected to increase throughout the day. Combined with light rain, wet loose avalanches may be possible. This problem could increase if the rain picks up or if the sun pokes out and temperatures rise in the afternoon. These can be found on all slopes, especially on steep, east, south, west aspects. If you are wallowing in wet snow, it may be a good time to turn around or choose shaded slopes.
It has been over six days since a human triggered an avalanche on a layer of facets and surface hoar buried 1 to 2′ deep. We saw many tracks on all aspects on Tuesday with no signs of slab avalanche activity. Usually this is telling us there is a small chance of triggering an avalanche on this layer. While we do not feel it is likely to trigger one of these avalanches, consider this potential if you travel into steep consequential terrain.
Yesterday: A storm stationed southwest of Kodiak brought cloudy skies and strong winds from the northeast across the Kenai Peninsula. Winds on Sunburst averaged 80 mph with 109 mph recorded overnight! With a trace of snow reported it appears most of the precipitation missed us.
Today: Cloudy skies in the morning may break up for a little sunshine in the late afternoon. East winds look to average 10 to 20 mph with ridgetops gusting 30 to 40 mph. Up to 5″ of new snow is possible that should dissipate in the afternoon as temperatures may reach the high 30s.
Tomorrow: Partly sunny skies may prevail with ridgetop winds from the east averaging 10 to 15 mph with 30 mph gusts. Little to no snow is expected as the freezing line may approach 2,200ft. Temperatures look to range between 30F and 45 F.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | 35 | 0 | 0.1 | 96″ |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 39 | 0 | 0 | 45″ |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 36 | 0 | 0 | 111″ |
Bear Valley – Portage (132′) | 42 | 0 | 0.1 | – |
Grouse Ck (700′) | 36 | 0 | 0.1 | 72″ |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | 25 | ENE | 53 | 109 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 27 | SE | 21 | 42 |
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
10/27/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan | Michael Kerst |
10/21/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Road Observation | Trevor Clayton |
10/19/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan – Below Todds Run | Andy Moderow |
10/18/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Taylor Pass | Eli Neuffer |
10/15/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan Common | John Sykes Forecaster |
10/14/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | CNFAC Staff |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South | H Thamm |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side | Amy Holman |
05/12/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Warm up Bowl | Tony Naciuk |
05/07/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs | A S |
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