Turnagain Pass
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The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE above 2,500′ due to strong northwest winds yesterday and forecast for today that will be creating fresh wind slabs. These can be 1 to 2′ deep and easy to trigger on slopes that are loaded by the wind. Although an avalanche is less likely, evaluate wind loaded slopes at mid elevations as well. Additionally, give cornices a wide berth and look out for wet loose avalanche activity on sunny, steep, south facing slopes.
SUMMIT PASS: Wind slab avalanches are a concern in the Summit area as well as strong northwest winds are expected to pick up throughout the day. There is also a buried weak layer 1-2′ deep that is still a problem to be aware of. If a wind slab is triggered it has the potential to step down into this layer, creating a larger slide. Extra caution is recommended.
SEWARD/LOST LAKE: Strong northwest outflow winds are expected through today and into the remainder of the week. Natural wind slab avalanches remain likely in this area.
Thu, February 29th, 2024 |
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Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
Although no avalanches were reported yesterday it is still likely that small wind slab avalanches did release on wind loaded features at higher elevations. The last known avalanches were natural wind slab avalanches caused by strong westerly winds at higher elevations over the weekend. These are similar conditions to what we are expecting today. If you see an avalanche, it would be awesome if you snap a photo and send it to us.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Fresh wind slabs will be our main concern today as ridgetop winds form the northwest picked up yesterday afternoon and are forecast to gust 30+ mph today. These winds are coming from the opposite direction as the east winds that arrived with Monday’s storm. This is important to keep in mind as fresh wind slabs will likely be on different slopes that were not loaded by Monday’s easterly storm winds. Blowing snow, stiff snow over soft snow, and cracks shooting from beneath you are all good indicators you are traveling on a wind loaded slope. Areas that typically get loaded are below ridges, rollovers, and in cross loaded gullies. At mid elevations the snow may be spared by the winds making them a good choice to reduce the likelihood of triggering a wind slab avalanche.
Cornices: There was a large avalanche triggered by a cornice fall near Kickstep in Turnagain Pass. Although it is uncertain when this occurred, nature is telling us that in some place’s cornices are reaching there breaking point. If you are traveling in cornice country give them an extra wide berth as they may need just a little more weight to break off, potentially triggering a slab below.
Sun Effect: The sun is back and with that wet loose avalanches will be possible, especially on steep south facing slopes near rocks and vegetation. These also have the potential to trigger a wind slab below. The sun warming the snow can also make wind slabs easier to trigger. Although temperatures are supposed to be cold today, we are approaching the season where solar triggered avalanches will become more common.
Winds transporting snow over ridges and across gullies on the south end of Seattle Ridge. Photo 2.27.2024
Small rollerballs on steep south facing slopes seen here just above the snowmachiners helmet. Photo 2.27.2024
A layer of faceted snow buried 1.5′ to 3′ deep has been showing signs of gaining strength in snowpits in the Turnagain Pass area. We are still keeping track of this layer because it is hard to predict how unstable a facet layer is across our forecast zone. Elevations between 2,000′ to 3,000′ have been the most concerning. The most concerning areas for this weak layer are around Summit Pass and the central Kenai Mountains, south of our forecast zone. Although it is unlikely, keep in mind that persistent layers may offer no red flags or warning signs until they have fractured into a large avalanche.
Yesterday: Mostly sunny skies with valley fog in the morning. Moderate winds at mid elevations with gusty northwest winds (20+ mph) on the ridgetops. Temperatures remained in the mid-teens.
Today: Partly cloudy skies with valley fog are forecast for Turnagain. Ridgetop winds from the northwest will remain steady (10 to 20 mph) with 30+ mph gusts. Northwest gusts (45+mph) are expected near Seward and Whittier as gap winds increase near the coast. Temperatures are trending colder with a high of 10 F to -5 F.
Tomorrow: A few clouds with valley fog breaking up in the afternoon. Winds from the west averaging 10 mph with 20+ mph gusts are forecast around Turnagain. Gap winds are expected to bring twice as much wind from the west near Seward and Whittier. Temperatures will remain between 5 F and -10 F.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | 6 | 0 | 0 | 91 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 9 | 0 | 0 | 47 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 8 | 0 | 0 | 92 |
Bear Valley – Portage (132′) | 17 | 0 | 0 | – |
Grouse Ck (700′) | 9 | 0 | 0 | 67 |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | -3 | NW | 5 | 21 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 3 | NW | 3 | 12 |
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
10/27/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan | Michael Kerst |
10/21/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Road Observation | Trevor Clayton |
10/19/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan – Below Todds Run | Andy Moderow |
10/18/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Taylor Pass | Eli Neuffer |
10/15/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan Common | John Sykes Forecaster |
10/14/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | CNFAC Staff |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South | H Thamm |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side | Amy Holman |
05/12/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Warm up Bowl | Tony Naciuk |
05/07/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs | A S |
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