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The avalanche danger is MODERATE above 1,000’ and LOW below 1,000’. Easterly winds picked up yesterday in the afternoon and continued overnight, likely creating fresh wind slabs on a variety of terrain features. Today wind slabs could be 1-2’ deep and large enough to bury someone. Additionally, there still is uncertainty as to how reactive a layer of buried surface hoar is that is roughly 2-3’ deep and underneath the Holiday storm snow.
A cautious mindset is recommended if headed into the bigger terrain. Be sure to keep in mind that the storm snow may still be unstable and be aware of red flags such as whumpfing in the snowpack.
Thu, December 28th, 2023 |
Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
Other than one fresh looking glide avalanche in the Seattle Creek drainage, no new natural or human triggered avalanches were reported. The last avalanches seen/reported were from Saturday and Sunday when the Holiday storm deposited 2-3 feet of snow accompanied by strong east winds.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Yesterday, gusty ridgetop winds were depositing snow on leeward features from Turnagain Pass to Girdwood. They began in the afternoon and ramped up in the evening, in the 25-50 mph range. These winds combined with all the snow available for transport likely drifted snow into 1-2’ wind slabs. The wind has died down this morning, which will allow the snow to adjust to this load. However, there is a chance that a person could trigger one of these wind slabs. As you are traveling, feel for stiffer snow over softer snow and look for shooting cracks under your machine, board, or, skis. These are great indicators telling you that there is a combination of a wind slab over softer snow. If triggered, these avalanches could become more dangerous if they step down into a layer of buried surface hoar 2-3’ deep.
Avalanches failing under the Holiday storm snow are still a concern. While the Holiday storm has had some time to settle, the surface hoar that it buried has been identified in snowpits between 2 and 3’ deep. This would have been on the surface before the Holiday storm started. First of all, we do not know how intact and widespread this layer is. It was buried between two very soft layers of snow and in many places could be hard to pick out and not an issue. However, this may not be the case everywhere. Therefore, we are still concerned that a person could trigger this layer and get caught up in a large avalanche. While we keep getting more intel, this is a heads-up situation where conditions can seem a lot safer than they might actually be. This a difficult problem to identify and why we recommend a cautious mindset. There is plenty of great skiing to be had in less consequential terrain until we know more.
Ridgetop winds transporting snow yesterday in the afternoon in the Portage area. 12.26.2023
Surface hoar identified 3′ deep but did not fail in stability tests on Tincan yesterday at 1,900′. 12.26.2023
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Glide cracks and glide avalanches have been observed all along both sides of Turnagain Pass, in Girdwood Valley and south through Summit Lake. Two newer glide avalanches were seen on Seattle Ridge on Monday. It is important to look for and know how to identify what these cracks and avalanches look like. Because these avalanches release to the ground it can be easy to spot them as “brown frowns” as they open or “brown spots” when they release. It is important to minimize exposure under these glide cracks because they can spontaneously release and be large and dangerous.
Glide crack on Main Bowl in the Seattle Ridge area. Photo by Troy Tempel 12.26.2023
The Thanksgiving crust/facet combo is now sitting under 4-6 feet or more of snow. We still have not seen avalanches releasing on this layer after the storm but that does not mean this layer is not capable of sliding. Only three days have passed since the storm. We are still gathering information on if there was avalanche activity on this layer. This would have created a very large slide with a big crown face. Due to the depth, the layer is not only very difficult to assess at this point, but also would be very difficult to trigger. We are not forgetting about it however and will continue to look for any evidence that it could be reactive.
Yesterday: Clear skies with a layer of low clouds approaching from the south in the afternoon. Ridgetop winds were light and variable, with a few 10-20 mph gusts from the east. East winds picked in the afternoon into the evening with gusts of 30-50 mph. Temperatures warmed throughout the day (-4 F to 15-20 F). Tuesday night saw a trace to a couple inches of snow.
Today: Partly cloudy skies will become mostly clear in the afternoon. Models are showing ridgetop winds light and variable before shifting out of the west in the afternoon in the 5-10 mph range throughout the day. Temperatures should be around the teens slowly dropping in the evening. There is no expected precipitation.
Tomorrow: Mostly clear skies are expected tomorrow, Thursday. Ridgetop winds are forecast to increase from the west and northwest into the 10-15mph range. Temperatures look cold, dropping from the teens to possibly single digits later in the day. No precipitation is expected.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | 14 | 1 | 0.1 | 82 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 5 | trace | trace | N/A |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 17 | 1 | 0.05 | 71 |
Bear Valley – Portage (132′) | 12 | 2 | 0.15 | – |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | 11 | NE | 12 | 46 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 12 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South | H Thamm |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side | Amy Holman |
05/12/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Warm up Bowl | Tony Naciuk |
05/07/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs | A S |
04/29/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Turnagain aerial obs | Tully Hamer |
04/27/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Johnson Pass | Noah Mery |
04/23/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Sunny Side | Travis SMITH |
04/21/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Bertha Creek | Anonymous |
04/20/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Spokane Creek | Schauer/ Mailly Forecaster |
04/16/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Cornbiscuit | Krueger / Matthys Forecaster |
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