Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

The last known avalanches occurred 8 days ago. They were small wind slabs associated with a NW wind event.

It is good to remember that green light conditions mean that triggering an avalanche is ‘unlikely’ not impossible. The mountains can harbor surprises now and then, so to reiterate – good travel practices are key all the time, even now. That means, only exposing one person at a time, having escape routes planned, limiting exposure on ascent routes, spotting your partners, and watching for other groups.

If you’ve been following the forecast, you’ll know we have been concerned about a layer of facets that exist at the base of the snowpack at the higher elevations (above 3,000′) – named the October facets. We’ve been targeting locations to assess the layer as well as seek out information from others. With a week of quiet weather, generally stable pit results, and almost 3 weeks since the last know avalanche released on it, we have confidence the layer is either healed or in a dormant phase (unreactive). Example from two pits below showing both these situations.

Other avalanche issues that we should be aware of are old stubborn wind slabs in steep terrain. Even a small wind slab, that would be too small to bury a person, could knock someone off their feet and send them somewhere they do not wish to go. Watch for stiff old hard snow over softer snow and of course, any cracks that shoot out from you. Otherwise, sluffs in the loose surface snow are possible. These also are small, but in the wrong place could knock a person around. In short, watch your sluff.

A view from Andrew’s pit yesterday; looking toward Pastoral from the start zone in Warmup Bowl on the backside of Seattle Ridge. 12.3.22. 

Looking ahead to when it starts snowing again, there is another layer we are tracking. This is weak snow (facets) developing around the crust that was formed just before Thanksgiving (aka the Thanksgiving crust). This isn’t creating avalanches now, but could be a player down the road. However, the biggest player when we get new snow will likely be the current surface, which is composed of loose near surface facets.