Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

The avalanche danger is rising as snow continues to fall across the advisory area. As of 5:00 this morning, weather stations are showing 7-9″ of new snow, and another 3-5″ is expected during the day. Strong easterly winds have been blowing 25-50 mph since yesterday evening, and the Sunburst weather station is recording gusts just under 80 mph. This weather system is hard at work loading snow on top of a variety of weak surfaces including surface hoar, near-surface facets, and the New Year’s crust. In addition to the strong winds and heavy snowfall, we are also seeing the temperatures rising into the low 30’s this morning. Those rising temperatures mean heavier wet snow is stacking up on top of cold, dry snow, creating an upside-down storm layer that will be very touchy. This is a dangerous setup, and it is likely a person will be able to trigger an avalanche 2′ deep or deeper by the middle of the day today. If this storm ends up producing more than is expected as of this morning, we will be flirting with HIGH DANGER by the end of the day. Pay attention to signs of increasing danger, especially for fresh avalanche activity as the storm continues.

While the biggest avalanches will be found on wind-loaded slopes, we are also expecting to see dangerous avalanche conditions in frequently traveled sheltered terrain (think about the steeper rollovers in the Tincan trees). If you plan on getting out today, conservative decision making will be key. It is likely avalanches may be triggered remotely from above, below, or adjacent to steep terrain. The New Year’s crust will make for a very smooth bed surface, which means avalanches are likely to run fast and far. Be mindful of the terrain above you, and be sure to avoid spending any time in runout zones below steeper slopes. This is the kind of day to play around in the flats and stay on very mellow slopes. Everyone is thrilled to finally get a good refresh, but the current setup is nothing to mess with.

Loose Snow Avalanches: Rain lines are expected to rise up to 1500′ this morning, which will most likely lead to wet loose avalanches on steep slopes in lower elevations. At higher, colder elevations, we can expect to see dry loose avalanches running fast on top of the New Year’s crust. These will have enough volume to carry a person, and can have severe consequences in terrain traps like trees, rocks, alders, and open creeks.

New snow is getting loaded on a variety of weak surfaces, including near-surface facets, buried surface hoar, and a nasty crust. Large avalanches are likely as the snow continues to stack up. Snow surface at 1800′ on Center Ridge, 01.09.2022.

I described the current setup in this video from the field yesterday: