Turnagain Pass
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The avalanche danger remains MODERATE above 1,000′ on all aspects. Fresh wind slab avalanches, up to a foot in depth, will be possible to trigger on wind loaded slopes. This is due to sustained moderate southeasterly ridgetop winds that began yesterday evening. There also remains a chance a person could trigger a larger slab, up to 2 feet deep, that breaks on an older buried weak layer. Additionally, watch for rollerballs and wet sluffs if the sun breaks through this afternoon and warms the snow surface.
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Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
There were no known avalanches yesterday. The last known avalanche was a skier triggered slab that was reported near the Seattle Creek Headwall on Monday. This slab was around a foot deep and 100′ wide on an easterly aspect around 3,400′ in elevation. The slab failed on weak snow over a thin crust under the storm snow from April Fools’ Day. The skier was able to ski off the moving slab.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Another brief shot of moisture is over the region this morning. However, only a trace to a couple inches of snow is expected before skies are forecast to start breaking up midday. Apart from a little new snow, it will be the southeast ridgetop winds that are more exciting. These winds picked up into the 10-20mph range with gusts near 40mph overnight and should continue through most of the day. How much snow the winds are able to transport is the big question. There was roughly 2-4″ of new snow fell yesterday along with another inch or two today that is available along with any pre-existing snow that is soft enough to move. Sun crusts on southerly aspects may limit some wind transport but from what Andrew and Graham saw yesterday in the Placer Valley, there was ample soft snow.
For anyone getting out today, keeping an eye out for active wind loading, watching for smooth rounded pillows of freshly deposited snow, hollow feeling snow, and cracking in the snow around you will be key. Wind slabs should be easy to suss out and in the foot deep realm. Areas in the higher elevations could sport some slabs up to 2′ deep where winds are strongest along ridgelines. This wind direction is a bit more southerly than we normally see, so really looking for new slabs in places you might not expect will be important, including over rollovers in the mid elevations and cross-loaded gullies.
Sunshine: If the sun comes out, we can expect to see some rollerballs and wet sluffs on southern aspects as the surface melts. This is similar to what we have been seeing in the afternoons over the past few days.
Cornices: As always, keep giving cornices an extra wide berth. Not only are the winds adding to them today, but any sun that shines this time of year can really add to destabilizing them further.
Ridgetop southeasterly winds transporting snow above the northwest face of Comet Pk in the Placer Valley yesterday evening. Also seen is an older avalanche that was likely a natural from the April Fools’ storm last Friday. 4.5.22.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Underneath the easy-to-see surface instabilities are a few lurking layers we have to keep in mind. The most concerning layer is the one closest to the surface. It’s the April Fools’ interface that sits in the top 1-2 feet in the snowpack. This layer is composed of small buried surface hoar and near surface facets that sit on a thin crust. It has been hard to get the layer to react in many pits, but it does react at times. It was also the layer responsible for many avalanches last weekend, with the last known avalanche occurring on Monday; noted above on the Seattle Headwall. It isn’t out of the question for someone to trigger another avalanche on this layer and even a wind slab avalanche could step down to it. With sun crusts on southerly slopes, the northerly aspects are most suspect until the sun melts off those sun crusts making south slopes a concern as well.
Deep Persistent Slabs: The other buried layers are much further down, 3-6′ deep in the snowpack, and are from March. They are also composed of a thin layer of small buried surface hoar and small facets. These layers also show they can fail in just the right place every once in a while. An avalanche releasing on one of them would be very large, but at the same time they are very unlikely to trigger due to the depth and that the weak layer is healing in many places. We will continue to watch them as a big load of snow and/or rapid warming could reactivate them.
Yesterday: A brief period of snowfall yesterday morning was quickly followed by clearing skies and some sunshine. Between 2-4″ accumulated in most areas. Ridgetop winds were easterly in the 10-20mph range. Temperatures were in the 30’sF at the lower elevations and near 20F along the ridgetops.
Today: Another quick shot of snow showers is over the region this morning bringing a trace to 2″ of snowfall (rain/snow mix at sea level). Skies are forecast to break up through the day with the chance for some instability showers here and there into tonight. Ridgetop winds are slated to remain gusty from the southeast, in the 10-20mph range with gusts in the 30’s. Temperatures will likely rise to near 40F at sea level and into the upper 20’sF along ridgetops.
Tomorrow: Mostly clearing skies are forecast for tomorrow, Thursday. Ridgetop winds are expected to decrease and swing northwesterly (5-10mph range). Temperatures should rise with daytime warming back to more springlike conditions, possibly hitting 45F at sea level and the low 30’sF along ridgelines.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | 30 | 2 | N/A | 118 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 29 | 4 | N/A | 42 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 32 | 4.5 | 0.2 | N/A |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | 18 | E | 15 | 37 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 23 | SE | 9 | 19 |
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
10/27/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan | Michael Kerst |
10/21/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Road Observation | Trevor Clayton |
10/19/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan – Below Todds Run | Andy Moderow |
10/18/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Taylor Pass | Eli Neuffer |
10/15/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan Common | John Sykes Forecaster |
10/14/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | CNFAC Staff |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South | H Thamm |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side | Amy Holman |
05/12/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Warm up Bowl | Tony Naciuk |
05/07/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs | A S |
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