Turnagain Pass
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The avalanche danger remains MODERATE at all elevations today. It will be possible to trigger a large avalanche on a layer of weak sugary snow buried 2-3′ deep that could release wider than expected. Triggering these avalanches from adjacent lower angle terrain or having them release above you on a slope is also possible. Careful terrain selection and being aware of steep terrain around you is important to minimize exposure to this avalanche hazard. Look for signs of instability like collapsing (whumphing) and shooting cracks to indicate sensitive avalanche conditions.
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Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
No known recent avalanches
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
The skies should trend towards clearing today with light winds and cold temperatures creating a mighty temptation to venture into bigger terrain, but dragons are lurking in our snowpack. Throughout the advisory area we have weak sugary persistent weak layers underneath 2-3′ of snow that fell over the past 10 days. As we get further away from the most recent storm the probability of human triggered avalanches is likely decreasing but the consequences if one of these persistent slabs releases could be high. To completely avoid this avalanche problem stay on lower angle slopes, smaller features, and be aware of terrain above you that could be triggered remotely.
There have not been many folks travelling in the mountains since the latest storm to test the reactivity of our weak layers, so we have some uncertainty about how sensitive they are to triggering. It is important to remember that persistent slabs are notoriously unpredictable and don’t always release with the first person on the slope. We continue to recommend careful evaluation of the snowpack by being alert to collapsing or shooting cracks and using snowpits to identify and test weak layers (small collapse on Sunburst 12.1.21). The most common weak layer setup we have seen recently is a layer of weak and sugary facets on top of a stout melt freeze crust (example here).
Motorized areas recently opened in Chugach National Forest: We have very limited information from the areas that opened to motorized access yesterday (Placer River, Johnson Pass, Lynx Creek, Lost Lake, etc). We expect that the persistent weak layers exist throughout the advisory area and recommend a conservative mindset while venturing into new terrain. If you travel into a new area please consider sending in an observation so we can start to fill in our knowledge gaps and get a better picture of the conditions throughout the area.
Wind slabs and cornices: Watch for old wind slabs and cornices that built up during the last storm, especially at higher elevations and along ridgelines.
Small avalanche in a wind loaded area on the E face of Seattle Ridge from sometime in the past two days. 12.1.21
Cornice fall in Hippy Bowl on Tincan Common from sometime during the last storm. Photo: Anonymous 12.1.21
Glide activity has continued to decline and many of the lingering glide cracks are slowly getting filled in by the recent storms. They can still be a hazard to fall into and have to potential to spontaneously release. Minimize time underneath open glide cracks to avoid this unlikely but catastrophic avalanche hazard.
Yesterday: Cloud cover was variable yesterday, with good visibility in the morning and mostly cloudy skies otherwise. Winds were light at less than 5 mph with gusts up to 20 out of the east in the morning before shifting to north and then west throughout the day. Temperatures were in the teens throughout the day and dropped into the low teens to single digits overnight. No new precipitation was recorded.
Today: Cloud cover should diminish throughout the day trending towards partly sunny skies. Chance of snow showers in the morning with trace amounts of accumulation. Winds will remain light out of the west to northwest from 5-10 mph. Temperatures will be cold again staying in the single digits throughout the day.
Tomorrow: Cold and calm weather looks to remain in the advisory area through the next few days, before another low pressure system starts to move in on Saturday night into Sunday. Temperatures will remain in the positive and negative single digits. Winds will remain light out of the west until the next system moves in when they will shift to the east.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | 16 | 0″ | 0″ | 60″ |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 13 | 0″ | 0″ | 12″ |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 17 | 1″ | 0.1″ | N/A |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | 13 | E then N | 2 | 6 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 9 | E then W | 3 | 18 |
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
10/27/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan | Michael Kerst |
10/21/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Road Observation | Trevor Clayton |
10/19/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan – Below Todds Run | Andy Moderow |
10/18/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Taylor Pass | Eli Neuffer |
10/15/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan Common | John Sykes Forecaster |
10/14/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | CNFAC Staff |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South | H Thamm |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side | Amy Holman |
05/12/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Warm up Bowl | Tony Naciuk |
05/07/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs | A S |
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