Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

On the northern end of Seattle Ridge below the weather station we spotted a recent looking glide avalanche release yesterday. It is possible that this has been there for awhile and we just didn’t notice it due to the denser tree cover along the road corridor on this end of the pass. Either way there are a fair number of glide cracks opening up across the forecast region and this is a good reminder that they can release spontaneously and the best way to avoid them is just to not spend time underneath them.

The avalanche conditions are generally safe, but that does not mean there is a 0% chance of triggering an avalanche. Over the past few weeks we have seen minimal new snow and plenty of wind and sunshine that has helped create generally stable avalanche conditions. However, lingering wind slabs in steeper terrain, small wet loose avalanches on steep south facing slopes in the afternoon, cornice fall, and glide cracks are all normal mountain hazards that continue to require some attention to identify and avoid.

We recommend you continue to use safe travel practices like travelling one at a time in avalanche terrain and grouping up in safe zones to minimize your exposure to these hazards. In addition the snowpack on the southern end of Turnagain Pass and the northern end of Johnson Pass (Pete’s N, Center Divide, Groundhog) has a much weaker structure than most of the forecast area and triggering a larger persistent slab avalanche in these areas is possible (see additional concern for more info).

The clear skies and cold temperatures at lower elevations this week has lead to some impressive surface hoar growth in meadows below treeline. Photo 3.10.23

The most recent large human triggered avalanche in our forecast area was on March 6th in the Bench Peak area near Johnson Pass. This avalanche released after several skiers had already descended the slope and produced a wide propagating fracture that wiped out the old tracks. These are common signs of a lingering persistent weak layer that may be stubborn to trigger but could produce a large avalanche. The snowpack near Johnson Pass and on the southern end of Turnagain Pass is more similar to Summit Lake than it is to the rest of our forecast area, with widespread weak layers that are easier to initiate with the weight of a skier or rider due to the overall shallower snowpack depth. The potential for large human triggered avalanches is higher in this area and we recommend careful evaluation of the snowpack and conservative terrain selection if you head to this area.