Tue, March 14, 2023 Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Tue, March 14th, 2023

Alpine
Above 2,500'

Low (1)

Treeline
1,000'-2,500'

Low (1)

Below Treeline
Below 1,000'

Low (1)

Alpine Above 2,500'		Low (1)
Treeline 1,000'-2,500'		Low (1)
Below Treeline Below 1,000'		Low (1)

Danger Scale:

No Rating (0)

Low (1)

Moderate (2)

Considerable (3)

High (4)

Extreme (5)

Recent Avalanches

Yesterday skiers reported a small natural avalanche on the Eddie’s Headwall. It looks like it may have been triggered by a falling cornice, and is probably a few days old. More details in this observation.

Photo of the Eddie’s Headwall, taken yesterday. The avalanche looks to be a few days old. Photo: Eric Steinfort, 03.13.2023

Avalanche Problem 1

Normal Caution

Normal Caution

Normal Caution means triggering an avalanche is unlikely but not impossible.

More info at Avalanche.org

The biggest factor driving the avalanche danger today is the timing of the approaching storm. It is looking like we won’t see very much precipitation until shortly before sunset today, which means the avalanche conditions should stay generally safe for most of the day. It will be important to pay attention to changing conditions as the weather picks up, and look out for increasing avalanche danger if the storm arrives sooner than expected.

Until it starts snowing, the main thing to watch out for will be small avalanches in isolated upper-elevation terrain. It is important to remember that although the danger is low, it is not impossible to trigger an avalanche. With a few hours of gusty winds yesterday afternoon, there may be some lurking pockets of reactive wind slabs. Stay smart with your travel habits- only exposing one person at a time to steep terrain and watching partners from safe spots out of avalanche runout zones. With deteriorating weather conditions expected today, it is probably a good idea to plan on getting out of the mountains a little earlier so you don’t get stuck in an uncomfortable situation as the storm ramps up and avalanche danger starts to rise.

It’s not much, but it is something! Snowfall is expected to start this afternoon and continue through Wednesday. There is high uncertainty with timing, and some areas may see higher snow totals. Be on the lookout for increasing danger as the storm ramps up. Graphic courtesy of NWS Anchorage. 03.14.2023

Additional Concern

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

More info at Avalanche.org

We are still concerned with the possibility of triggering a larger avalanche on a layer of weak facets buried about a foot deep down in the southern edge of our forecast area. This layer is most problematic between Pete’s North and Johnson Pass, and was the culprit in a large skier-triggered avalanche last Monday (3/6). These stubborn persistent weak layers can be difficult to predict, so the best way to manage them is by avoiding steep slopes in this area.

Weather

Tue, March 14th, 2023

Yesterday: Skies were mostly sunny with a few clouds moving in later in the day. Winds were 5-10 mph out of the west for most of the day, with a few hours in the afternoon of speeds around 10-15 and gusts as high as 30 mph on Max’s. Portage recorded stronger easterly to northeasterly winds at around 5-15 mph with gusts around 25 mph. Temperatures reached the low to mid 20’s at lower elevations, staying in the single digits to low teens near ridgetops during the day, and dropped down to single digits above and below zero overnight. No precipitation was recorded yesterday.

Today: A pattern change is underway as a low pressure system in the Gulf brings increasing cloud cover and winds switching back to the east at 5-10 mph with gusts of 10-20 mph. The weather is looking to get more active late in the afternoon, with increasing winds and snowfall expected to start around 4 pm. We will likely only see a trace to 2” snow during daylight hours today, with another 2-4” possible tonight. Precipitation during this storm is expected to be spotty and difficult to predict, so some areas may see more than double those precipitation totals. Temperatures are expected to get into the mid to upper teens F during the day before dropping slightly to the low to mid teens early tonight. It is looking like snow line should stay down to sea level for this first round of precipitation.

Tomorrow: Snowfall should continue tonight into tomorrow, with another 1-2” likely during the day tomorrow. Easterly winds are expected to pick up tonight, blowing 15-25 mph with gusts of 20-30 before backing off slightly during the day tomorrow. Skies should be mostly cloudy during the day and high temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 20’s F with lows in the low to mid teens F.

PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

	Temp Avg (F)	Snow Depth (in)
Center Ridge (1880′)	16	64
Summit Lake (1400′)	13	37
Alyeska Mid (1700′)	16	64
Bear Valley – Portage (132′)	15	–

RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

	Temp Avg (F)	Wind Dir	Wind Avg (mph)	Wind Gust (mph)
Sunburst (3812′)	3	WNW	4	15
Seattle Ridge (2400′)	9	NW	4	14

Observations

Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass

Date	Region	Location	Observer
03/19/23	Turnagain	Observation: Tin Can	Paul Schauer
03/19/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan	Megan Guinn
03/18/23	Turnagain	Observation: Turnagain Pass – valley bottoms	W Wagner
03/17/23	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan	Megan Guinn & John Sykes
03/17/23	Turnagain	Observation: Eddie’s/Summit	Alex Palombo
03/16/23	Turnagain	Observation: Twin Peaks Meadows	Schauer/ Pfeiffer Forecaster
03/16/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan	Elias Neuffer
03/16/23	Turnagain	Avalanche/People Involved: Tincan Trees	Anonymous
03/16/23	Turnagain	Avalanche/People Involved: Tincan Common	Catherine Rocchi
03/15/23	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan	John Sykes Forecaster

Riding Areas

Updated Fri, February 10th, 2023

Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us

Area	Status	Weather & Riding Conditions
Glacier District
Johnson Pass	Open	Opened Dec 13th.
Placer River	Open	Closed Jan 5th due to lack of snow and reopened Feb 11th.
Skookum Drainage	Open	Closed Jan 5th due to lack of snow and reopened Feb 11th.
Turnagain Pass	Open	Opened Dec 13th.
Twentymile	Open	Closed Jan 5th due to lack of snow and reopened Feb 11th.
Seward District
Carter Lake	Open	Opened Dec 13th.
Lost Lake Trail	Open	Opened Dec 13th.
Primrose Trail	Open	Opened Dec 13th.
Resurrection Pass Trail	Closed	Closed to motorized use for the 2022/23 winter season per Forest Plan. Open next season.
Snug Harbor	Open	Opened Dec 13th.
South Fork Snow River Corridor	Open	Opened Dec 13th.
Summit Lake	Open	Opened Dec 13th.