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The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE above 1000′. It is likely a person will be able to trigger a large avalanche on weak snow buried 2 to 3′ deep. It will also be easy to trigger avalanches near the surface where recent strong winds have blown the snow into sensitive slabs that will remain reactive today. Don’t let today’s quiet weather fool you- conditions remain dangerous and we’re sticking with low-angle terrain to avoid this problem for now. The danger will be MODERATE below 1000′ where the same problems may exist but will be harder to find.
SnowBall 2024 is almost here! This Wednesday- Valentine’s Day, Feb 14 (7-11pm @ 49th St Brewing). The evening promises costumes, finger food, a rocking band, silent auction, and of course plenty of great company. Join us in supporting Chugach Avy as well as the Alaska Avalanche School. Details and tickets HERE.
Mon, February 12th, 2024 |
Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
A snowmachine triggered two avalanches in Main Bowl yesterday. Details are sparse, but the avalanches look to have failed on slopes that were loaded with snow and wind during the recent storm. Nobody was caught or buried in the avalanches.
Across the highway on Eddie’s Ridge, a skier triggered an avalanche about 80′ wide and 2.5-3′ deep, running about 120 vertical feet. As far as we know nobody was caught or carried in the avalanche.
Two Snowmachinie-triggered avalanches in Main Bowl yesterday (Feb. 10). Nobody was caught or buried. Photo shared by Joseph Fiskeaux on social media, 02.10.2024.
Skier-triggered avalanche on Eddie’s Ridge. Photo: Rafael Pease, 02.10.2024
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
The weak layer of snow that formed during January’s dry spell remains our main concern today. Friday’s storm brought 1.5 to 2.5″ snow water equivalent (SWE) to the area, which is adding a lot of stress to a layer that had already produced avalanches before it started snowing. We expect this layer to remain sensitive to human triggers today. It is now buried 2 to 3 feet deep on wind-sheltered slopes, and could be up to 3 to 5 feet deep or deeper on slopes that have been loaded by the strong winds we’ve seen over the past two days. Although the weather is supposed to be relatively quiet today, avalanche conditions remain dangerous.
These persistent weak layers are difficult to assess, and can give you misleading feedback prior to triggering a big avalanche. Some of the techniques we use to assess new snow problems (hand pits, slope tests, etc.) are usually not reliable for these persistent slab problems. Any signs like shooting cracks or collapsing are clear signs of dangerous conditions, but we might not always see these even when conditions are ripe for triggering an avalanche. Stability tests may be able to tell you a little bit more, but ultimately we already know there is a widespread weak layer that just got buried by a heavy storm, and we expect that setup to produce avalanches today. Rather than trying to assess our way into steeper terrain, we’re going to be giving this layer some time to heal and stick to lower-angle terrain for now.
This poor structure was already showing signs for concern prior to the storm that just added a whole lot of stress. There is now 1-2 feet of snow on top of the slab pictured above. 02.08.2024
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Strong easterly winds throughout the most recent storm event have made another generation of wind slabs that we expect to remain reactive today. These will become larger and more likely to encounter as you gain elevation and get into the terrain that has been hit hardest by the wind. The most common features to find a reactive wind slab are steep slopes just below ridgelines, convex rolls, and steep gullies. These fresh wind slabs will feel stiffer on the surface, and you may notice a hollow, punchy feeling slab of snow if you hop off your snowmachine or step off the skin track and poke around. While wind slabs may sometimes be easier to manage than other avalanche problems, the deeper weak snow discussed in problem 1 above makes the wind slab problem a bit more severe today. A relatively small avalanche triggered near the surface has the potential to step down to that deeper weak layer, making a much bigger avalanche. This complicated combination of two different avalanche problems is a good reason to keep your terrain choices safe and simple for now.
Multiple natural wind slab avalanches in the alpine on Tincan Ridge seen yesterday. Photo: Tony Naciuk, 02.10.2024
It seems like the glide avalanche cycle that was producing large avalanches in December and January has slowed down for now. However, these avalanches are impossible to predict so we are not forgetting about the problem just yet. Avoid traveling under slopes with open glide cracks whenever possible, and be aware of the potential for falling into older glide cracks that are really difficult to identify now that they have been covered by the recent storms.
Yesterday: Weather stations in Portage, Summit Pass, and Seward received another 0.3” water at road level yesterday, with rain to around 300 to 500’ and 4 to 8” snow at upper elevations. Girdwood and Turnagain Pass received a trace of new snow. Skies were partly to mostly cloudy with high temperatures in the mid 20s to low 30s F. Winds were averaging 15 to 25 mph out of the east with gusts of 35 to 50 mph for most of the day, but have calmed down overnight and are currently blowing at 5 to 10 mph.
Today: We should see a spell of quiet weather between storm systems today, with partly cloudy skies and scattered snow showers bringing a trace of snow to sea level. Winds should stay light out of the east for the first part of the day, increasing in the afternoon to 20 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph. High temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 20s F with lows in the high teens to low 20s F.
Tomorrow: Active weather returns tomorrow, with strong easterly winds picking up ahead of the next round of snow. Expect to see ridgetop winds of 30 to 50 mph with gusts of 40 to 60 mph and mostly cloudy skies. Most areas should see 1 to 3” snow during the day, with the exception of areas closer to the coast which may see closer to 5 to 7”. The rain line is expected to rise overnight as precipitation continues, making it up to 1200 to 1400 feet overnight. High temperatures will be in the mid 20s to low 30s F with overnight temperatures staying in the upper 20s to low 30s F.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | 28 | tr | 0.1 | 86 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 28 | 3 | 0.2 | 45 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 30 | 1 | 0.07 | 93 |
Bear Valley – Portage (132′) | 36 | 0 | 0.3 | – |
Grouse Ck (700′) | 32 | 3 | 0.3 | 63 |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | 20 | ENE | 13 | 43 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 24 | SE* | 9* | 15* |
*Seattle Ridge anemometer rimed and not reporting data since 5 p.m. yesterday.
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South | H Thamm |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side | Amy Holman |
05/12/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Warm up Bowl | Tony Naciuk |
05/07/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs | A S |
04/29/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Turnagain aerial obs | Tully Hamer |
04/27/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Johnson Pass | Noah Mery |
04/23/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Sunny Side | Travis SMITH |
04/21/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Bertha Creek | Anonymous |
04/20/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Spokane Creek | Schauer/ Mailly Forecaster |
04/16/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Cornbiscuit | Krueger / Matthys Forecaster |
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