Turnagain Pass
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The avalanche danger is expected to rise to HIGH today above 2,500′ due to strong ridgetop winds and snowfall. Large natural slab avalanches (2-3+ feet deep) will likely occur at the high elevations while human triggered slabs will be very likely to trigger. The danger is CONSIDERABLE below 2,500′ where natural avalanches are possible yet human triggered avalanches remain likely. Travel in avalanche terrain is NOT recommended. Also, debris from avalanches releasing above could run into the lower elevations.
SUMMIT LAKE / SNUG / LOST LAKE: A dangerous snowpack exists in these areas as well. Two avalanches were triggered by skiers on Butch Mtn in the Summit Lake area yesterday. Skiers were able to escape being caught. The report is HERE.
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Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
We heard of three large human triggered avalanches and a couple of smaller ones yesterday. There were also two large natural avalanches that likely occurred sometime late on Friday or early yesterday morning as the last weather system moved out. All these slabs appear to have failed in the buried surface hoar that ranges from 1.5-3′ deep in the snowpack.
SW face of Cornbiscuit: One skier caught, carried, partially buried. Injured elbow, group was able to self rescue. This was a slab around 2′ deep with wide propagation, running 1,500, and looks to have overrun portions of the large slab triggered on this face two weeks ago. A second avalanche was triggered by second skier descending, skier was not caught. Report from group involved HERE. Report from near miss two weeks ago HERE.
Seattle Ridge, Warm Up (-1 Bowl): We heard second hand by a couple people that an avalanche was triggered that caught a person who was carried and partially buried. We hope to find out more today. Send us an email (staff@chugachavalanche.org) or observation if you have any info, thanks!
Pete’s North: Group of three skiers ascending triggered a slab avalanche in an open area in the trees. This was at an elevation around 1,400′ and slab was around 18″ deep. No one caught. Report by group HERE.
Natural Avalanches: One in Todd’s Bowl, very wide propagation, including pulling out sections lower on slope. And one on the roadside (SE face) of Seattle Ridge, also showing wide propagation. Both of these can be seen HERE.
Skier triggered slab on the SW face of Cornbiscuit. This also includes the section that was triggered by the second skier. Photo by party involved, 1.21.23.
Pete’s North slab avalanche triggered by group on edge of meadow. Photo by party involved, 1.21.23.
Todds Bowl natural avalanche, occurring sometime late Friday night or early yesterday morning. Andy Moderow 1.21.23.
The other large natural avalanche on the road side of Seattle Ridge. Also showing a wide propagating crown. Photo Elias Holt, 1.21.23.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Despite so many folks playing it safe yesterday, the snowpack was touchy enough that several people were still able to trigger avalanches. Some of these quite large and dangerous, such as the slab on the SW face of Cornbiscuit. This is all due to a layer of buried surface hoar that is still proving to be reactive. Today, more weather is headed in that will continue to load, and likely overload, the weak layers giving us so much grief.
Although we should only see 4-6″ of new snow today, the ridgetop winds will be the big player. They are slated to blow 35-45mph from an easterly direction with gusts near, or more than, 60mph. Wind slabs will be developing easily in the upper elevations, and possibly in exposed areas in the trees as there is plenty of soft snow to transport. Wind slabs are an issue on their own, but more concerning is the layer of buried surface hoar, 1.5-3′ deep, that is still producing avalanches. Hence, a smaller wind slab could trigger a much larger slab, or simply a wind loaded slope could release a larger slab that breaks 3 or so feet deep from the start. All these options are dangerous.
For today, visibility should be poor with the storm, limiting easy travel to the higher elevations, but these issues also exist in the mid elevations. As seen in the Pete’s North slab, even open slopes in the trees are suspect for triggering a slab avalanche we don’t want to be caught up in. That said, a very cautious mindset and careful route-finding is necessary if headed out to treed zones that may often seem safe. To reiterate, travel in avalanche terrain is NOT recommended.
This is a photo of the looker’s left side of Todd’s Bowl, lower on the slope where debris from the main avalanche was able to trigger this slab. This is indicative of a buried persistent weak layer, in our case now, the 1/10 buried surface hoar. Photo Andy Moderow, 1.21.23.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
From what we know yesterday, no recent avalanches have broken in our notorious deep persistent weak layer. This is the Thanksgiving facet/crust combo near the base of the snowpack; it’s anywhere from 4-8′ deep now. The layer is becoming deeper and deeper as more snow falls, making it less likely to be triggered, but we are still not writing it off. It’s hard to know if wind loading, or an avalanche breaking on the buried surface hoar, could trigger a very deep slab or not. This clearly would create a very large slide. But either way, the issues in the top 3′ of the snowpack are worrisome enough.
Yesterday: Sunny skis were over the region yesterday. Ridgetop winds were breezy (10-20mph) from the NW with some areas seeing stronger gusts. Temperatures dropped to 15-20F at the mid and upper elevations.
Today: A storm system is headed in this morning. Strong winds and light snowfall should develop through the day. Around 4-6″ of snow is forecast with a rain/snow line around 500′. Ridgetop winds should pick up into the 35-45mph range with gusts in the 60’s or more from an easterly direction. Temperatures are warming after yesterdays dip and should be in the mid 30’sF at the mid elevations and mid 20’sF along ridgelines.
Tomorrow: The storm moves out tomorrow with decreasing easterly winds and only around a trace of snow expected. Temperatures will be on the rise however as warm air filters in from the Gulf of Alaska. Periods of light snow (rain below 1,000′) should persist for the early part of the week.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | 25 | 0 | 0 | 67 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 18 | 0 | 0 | 33 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 24 | 0 | 0 | 67 |
Bear Valley – Portage (132′) | 28 | rain | 0.2 | – |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | 18 | W>NE | 8 | 28 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 20 | N>SE | 7 | 23 |
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
10/27/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan | Michael Kerst |
10/21/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Road Observation | Trevor Clayton |
10/19/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan – Below Todds Run | Andy Moderow |
10/18/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Taylor Pass | Eli Neuffer |
10/15/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan Common | John Sykes Forecaster |
10/14/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | CNFAC Staff |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South | H Thamm |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side | Amy Holman |
05/12/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Warm up Bowl | Tony Naciuk |
05/07/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs | A S |
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