Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast
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The avalanche danger will remain CONSIDERABLE at the higher elevations, above 2,500′. Triggering a 2′ deep slab avalanche remains likely on slopes steeper than 30 degrees. These avalanches are breaking in buried surface hoar and can release after several people have been on a slope. Additionally, give cornices an extra wide berth as some could be close to failure.
The danger is MODERATE between 1,000 and 2,500′ where a 2′ deep slab could be triggered on slopes with a thin breakable surface crust, or no surface crust. The danger is LOW below 1,000′ where just crusty snow exists.
The last known avalanches were from the small but warm storm on Tuesday. Some small wet loose avalanches occurred at the mid elevations and possibly some slabs breaking on buried surface hoar. However, after getting a better look yesterday, it’s uncertain whether those slabs were from Sunday or Tuesday. Either way no significant avalanches have been seen or reported that involved people since last weekend.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Another nice day is expected in the backcountry. However, that frustrating layer of buried surface hoar is still there and causing us to remain on our guard. The layer is buried around 2′ deep in most areas and as recently as yesterday, quite reactive. Andrew was able to get 2′ deep shooting cracks and unstable pit results around 3,000′ in Lynx Ck drainage. In the same area but at 2,000′ that layer did not want to react. We are getting to that point where it’s probably less likely to trigger one of these ‘persistent slab‘ avalanches, but we just aren’t sure. Some folks have been able to get on steeper slopes without incident, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that slope is safe; or the slope next to it.
Because of Tuesday’s wet weather event, there is now a not-so-fun surface crust up to around 2,000’. This has changed the slab character, making it much less likely to trigger a slide where that crust exists. Hence, it is now the higher elevations where the snow is much nicer to ride that triggering a slab will be most likely. As we move forward, we don’t want to forget that layer is under our skis, board, or machine. If choosing to start pushing onto steeper slopes, we need to know the risks, have escape routes planned, make sure our partners are watching and do everything we can in the event the slope avalanches. For me, and our recommendation, is to continue playing it cautious on the more mellow terrain. A 2′ deep slab that can propagate across a slope is unmanageable. Couple that with Andrew’s shooting cracks yesterday and enjoying the low angle pow will be just fine.
Sunshine again today ‘may’ be strong enough to soften surface snow and create some roller balls and even small wet loose avalanches. Tomorrow, much warmer conditions are forecast, so this may not occur till then. But this is good to keep on our radar as once the snowpack warms, triggering these 2′ deep slabs could be much easier.
Touchy snowpack found in upper Lynx Ck drainage yesterday. 1.26.23.
Cornices: These are large and as always, give them an extra wide berth.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
The warming at the upper elevations, peaking tomorrow, could also impact the Deep Persistent Slab problem – those weak layers surrounding the Thanksgiving crust, buried anywhere from 4-8′ deep. Meaning, the warmth could make those big slabs a hair easier to trigger. As the days go on in general, the chance for these large slabs, that are releasing near the ground, is lessening, but we are still concerned, especially when the weather keeps putting a bit of stress on the snowpack.
Yesterday: Mostly sunny day with light easterly winds along the ridgetops. Temperatures in the mid 30’sF in the lower elevations and in the mid 20’sF along ridgelines.
Today: Another sunny day is on tap with light westerly winds along ridgetops. Temperatures dropped slightly overnight and some valley fog may be seen today. Daytime temps should be again in the mid 30’F at the lower elevations and in the mid to upper 20’sF along ridgelines.
Tomorrow: More sunny skies are expected! A warm ‘subsidence inversion‘ is developing which could raise high elevation temperatures into the mid 30’s and even higher. Bring your tanning lotion if you’ll be out. Ridgetop winds should be light and westerly. Some clouds may start to filter in Sunday, but at this point, Sunday is looking pretty nice as well, though a bit cooler.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | 31 | 0 | 0 | 65 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 30 | 0 | 0 | 34 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 32 | 0 | 0 | 68 |
Bear Valley – Portage (132′) | 37 | 0 | 0 | – |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | 24 | E | 5 | 19 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 28 | SE | 5 | 12 |
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
03/30/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Magnum/Cornbiscuit | Schauer/ Slesser Forecaster |
03/30/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Wolverine, West Flank | James Howery |
03/26/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Sunburst avalanche investigation | Schauer/ Cullen Forecaster |
03/26/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Magnum shoulder | Matthew Howard |
03/25/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Seattle Ridge backside – several human triggered large avalanches | CNFAIC Staff |
03/25/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Seattle Ridge, 3rd Bowl, Rider Triggered Avalanches | CNFAIC Staff |
03/25/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Pastoral | Tony Naciuk |
03/25/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Eddie’s | James Howery |
03/25/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Eddies lower slopes | Anna Frick Bridget Psarianos |
03/25/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Sunny Side | Peter Wadsworth |
Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us
Area | Status | Weather & Riding Conditions |
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Glacier District |
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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.