Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

The last known avalanches were from the small but warm storm on Tuesday. Some small wet loose avalanches occurred at the mid elevations and possibly some slabs breaking on buried surface hoar. However, after getting a better look yesterday, it’s uncertain whether those slabs were from Sunday or Tuesday. Either way no significant avalanches have been seen or reported that involved people since last weekend.

Another nice day is expected in the backcountry. However, that frustrating layer of buried surface hoar is still there and causing us to remain on our guard. The layer is buried around 2′ deep in most areas and as recently as yesterday, quite reactive. Andrew was able to get 2′ deep shooting cracks and unstable pit results around 3,000′ in Lynx Ck drainage. In the same area but at 2,000′ that layer did not want to react. We are getting to that point where it’s probably less likely to trigger one of these ‘persistent slab‘ avalanches, but we just aren’t sure. Some folks have been able to get on steeper slopes without incident, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that slope is safe; or the slope next to it.

Because of Tuesday’s wet weather event, there is now a not-so-fun surface crust up to around 2,000’. This has changed the slab character, making it much less likely to trigger a slide where that crust exists. Hence, it is now the higher elevations where the snow is much nicer to ride that triggering a slab will be most likely. As we move forward, we don’t want to forget that layer is under our skis, board, or machine. If choosing to start pushing onto steeper slopes, we need to know the risks, have escape routes planned, make sure our partners are watching and do everything we can in the event the slope avalanches. For me, and our recommendation, is to continue playing it cautious on the more mellow terrain. A 2′ deep slab that can propagate across a slope is unmanageable. Couple that with Andrew’s shooting cracks yesterday and enjoying the low angle pow will be just fine.

Sunshine again today ‘may’ be strong enough to soften surface snow and create some roller balls and even small wet loose avalanches. Tomorrow, much warmer conditions are forecast, so this may not occur till then. But this is good to keep on our radar as once the snowpack warms, triggering these 2′ deep slabs could be much easier.

Touchy snowpack found in upper Lynx Ck drainage yesterday. 1.26.23.

Cornices:  These are large and as always, give them an extra wide berth.

The warming at the upper elevations, peaking tomorrow, could also impact the Deep Persistent Slab problem – those weak layers surrounding the Thanksgiving crust, buried anywhere from 4-8′ deep. Meaning, the warmth could make those big slabs a hair easier to trigger. As the days go on in general, the chance for these large slabs, that are releasing near the ground, is lessening, but we are still concerned, especially when the weather keeps putting a bit of stress on the snowpack.