Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast
|
![]() ![]() |
The avalanche danger is MODERATE in the Alpine, above ~2,500′. Watch for both new wind slabs (due to moderate east winds expected today) and old wind slabs (formed by last week’s strong east winds). New slabs should be small/shallow and easy to trigger (~6-8″ deep) while the older wind slabs are closer to 1-2+’ deep and much more stubborn.
Below 2,500′, the danger is generally LOW and triggering an avalanche is unlikely. The one exception would be between 2,000′ and 2,500′ where small wind slabs might be found in steep cross-loaded gullies.
*Increasing easterly winds expected through tonight with a several inches of new snow may increase the avalanche danger for tomorrow morning.
There were no known avalanches triggered yesterday. The last known avalanches were a human triggered cornice fall on Sunday and several natural avalanches with a few human triggered slabs associated with the warm storm last Thursday/Friday. There was a report from an upper elevation southeasterly slope in Lynx drainage of a more recent looking natural slab, which may have occurred over the weekend.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
After a couple sunny days to round out the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday weekend, clouds have moved back in with a few snow flurries. There is a weak weather system over the region that should peak late tonight/early tomorrow. For today’s daytime hours, the ridgetop easterly winds are increasing to 15-20mph with stronger gusts and will increase further to 25-30mph tonight. Snowfall should only be a trace today but we could wake up to 2-4″ tomorrow morning. That said, wind slabs will remain our main concern.
If you are headed out today, look for any signs of current or prior wind loading, predominantly above 2,500′. There should be enough snow available to transport to form new slabs (in the 6-8″ range) through the day. If winds increase quicker than forecast, your travels back to the parking lot could have more wind effect and wind slab development along ridgelines. As always, watch for stiff snow over softer snow and especially any cracking or whumpfing in the snow around you.
Wind slabs on weak snow? After chatting with the skier who triggered large cracks on a wind loaded slope in upper Girdwood Valley on Sunday, it was determined that the large wind slab could be sitting on weak facets over the New Year’s crust. This area has a shallower snowpack making it a lot easier for wind slabs to form on the crust. The take home here is watch for those red flags and be more suspect in areas where the snowpack is thinner in general (west side of Girdwood Valley and the south end of Turnagain Pass toward Summit Lake).
Cornices: If getting up to the ridgelines today, be sure to give cornices an extra wide berth.
A new generation of surface hoar is beginning to form on the surface. This photo is from the SW face of Lipps ridge. 1.17.22.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
We are continuing to track the New Year’s crust (buried anywhere from 2-5′ deep) and any weak snow that might still be an issue above or below it. So far evidence is pointing to a more stable snowpack, especially in areas with little wind loading. There are also a few buried crusts with looser snow around them within last week’s storm snow below 2,000′. These also have shown signs of bonding. All good news moving forward and triggering a deeper avalanche has become unlikely. Even so, especially in areas with little or no traffic yet this season, we should have our eyes out for any outliers.
Yesterday: Mostly clear skies transitioning to high clouds midday. Ridgetop winds were 5-10mph from the east with a few gusts in the teens. Temperatures have been steady in the teens at all elevations save for some chilly valley bottoms in the single digits.
Today: Cloudy skies and a chance for a few snow showers will be over the region. Only a trace to an inch at most is expected at all elevations today with 2-4″ possible late tonight into Wednesday. Ridgetop winds have been increasing overnight and should blow 10-20mph from the east today and 20-30mph tonight with the snowfall. Temperatures should remain near 20 at mid elevations and teens up high.
Tomorrow: Cloudy skies with some lingering snow showers are forecast for Wednesday. Winds along the ridgelines should be in the 20mph range and decreasing through the day. Temperatures should remain in the 20’sF with the teens along the peaks.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | 21 | 0 | 0 | 78 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 12 | 0 | 0 | 28 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 21 | 0 | 0 | N/A |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | 16 | E | 11 | 25 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 16 | SE | 8 | 15 |
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
05/22/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | Nick D'Alessio |
05/12/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan, Sunburst, Magnum, Cornbiscuit | Heather Thamm |
05/07/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan – Bear Tracks | CNFAIC Staff |
05/05/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Seattle Ridge | AS/ WW Forecaster |
05/02/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Cornbiscuit | Schauer/ Sturgess Forecaster |
05/02/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Seward Hwy Turnagain Pass | Joel Curtis |
04/30/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Magnum | Ayla, Kit Crosby, Barton |
04/29/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan | John Sykes |
04/28/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Taylor Pass/Pastoral | Schauer/ Creighton Forecaster |
04/28/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | Andy Moderow |
Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us
Area | Status | Weather & Riding Conditions |
---|---|---|
Glacier District |
Subscribe to Turnagain Pass
Avalanche Forecast by Email
This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.