Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Continued northwest winds will make it possible for people to trigger avalanches in steep terrain that is getting loaded throughout the day. Luckily it is looking like the strongest of the winds are going to miss the core advisory area, which should hopefully spare us most of the wind damage and keep the avalanche danger from getting out of control. There are a few things making even a light wind event a little more likely to produce avalanches. First, there is still plenty of soft snow on shaded northerly aspects waiting to get blown into wind slabs. Second, the southern aspects that might be getting loaded today have a supportable crust with a dusting of snow on top. With clear skies and cold temperatures this morning, some of this snow is likely starting to facet. This combination is similar to the bed surface/weak layer that has made the April Fools’ day interface a lingering concern. More on this in problem 2.

These northwest winds have a reputation for being redirected through channelized terrain around Turnagain Pass, so keep an eye out for loading on all aspects today. We often see these winds moving up the Six Mile drainage from the north, then getting funneled around the south end of Turnagain Pass and moving along the skier side of the highway from south to north. At the same time, ridgetop winds may still be predominantly out of the northwest, and Seattle Ridge tends to see less of this funneling effect than the east side of the pass.

The loading patterns can be tricky to pick out, so it is important to be on the lookout for signs of recent and active wind loading. Pay attention to snow blowing off ridgelines, and avoid steep slopes with a smooth, pillowed texture on the surface. A stiff slab sitting on softer snow is another telltale sign of a wind slab. As always, watch for warning signs of unstable snow: shooting cracks, collapsing, and fresh avalanche activity.

Glide avalanches: Glide cracks continue to creep open, and some of them have been releasing in the area. They are large, destructive, and unpredictable so be sure to limit time spent under cracks.

Cornices: With wind as our primary weather concern for the day, we can expect to find sensitive cornices along ridgelines. These might be forming in unusual places given the wind directions. Be careful traveling along ridgelines today, and be sure to keep plenty of space from the edge. It is always a good idea to avoid spending time under cornices, since they can release naturally.

Small rolls like this are a great way to get some feedback about how the snow is behaving. A shooting crack is a sign of unstable snow, telling you to stick to low angle terrain. 04.08.2022.

Click Here if the video below doesn’t load in your browser.

We are still paying attention to the April Fool’s interface, which is buried around a foot deep in most places and potentially still capable of producing an avalanche big enough to bury or injure a person. It has been five days since the last human-triggered avalanche on this layer, and we are finding it increasingly difficult to get this layer to fail in test pits. All of this is encouraging, and hopefully we can stop worrying about this interface sometime soon. However, the layer will see increased stress as slopes get loaded by winds today, nudging the needle towards instability. One more issue to consider while making terrain choices today.

I did not get any propagating results on the 4/1 layer yesterday when I was out near Girdwood. This layer was buried about a foot deep in my pit, which is pretty close to average for the advisory area. The more recent 4/5 crust was noticeable, but not reactive in the pit. 04.08.2022.