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The avalanche danger is MODERATE above 1000′. Northwest winds continue to build reactive wind slabs, making it possible for a person to trigger an avalanche 1-2′ deep. There is also a smaller chance of triggering a deeper avalanche on a layer that was buried last week. Carefully evaluate the snow for signs of instability before getting into steep terrain today. The danger is LOW below 1000′.
SUMMIT / SNUG HARBOR / LOST LAKE / SEWARD: These periphery zones are going to see stronger winds than the advisory area today, making natural avalanches possible and human-triggered avalanches likely. Be aware of elevated danger if you plan on getting out in any of these areas.
Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Continued northwest winds will make it possible for people to trigger avalanches in steep terrain that is getting loaded throughout the day. Luckily it is looking like the strongest of the winds are going to miss the core advisory area, which should hopefully spare us most of the wind damage and keep the avalanche danger from getting out of control. There are a few things making even a light wind event a little more likely to produce avalanches. First, there is still plenty of soft snow on shaded northerly aspects waiting to get blown into wind slabs. Second, the southern aspects that might be getting loaded today have a supportable crust with a dusting of snow on top. With clear skies and cold temperatures this morning, some of this snow is likely starting to facet. This combination is similar to the bed surface/weak layer that has made the April Fools’ day interface a lingering concern. More on this in problem 2.
These northwest winds have a reputation for being redirected through channelized terrain around Turnagain Pass, so keep an eye out for loading on all aspects today. We often see these winds moving up the Six Mile drainage from the north, then getting funneled around the south end of Turnagain Pass and moving along the skier side of the highway from south to north. At the same time, ridgetop winds may still be predominantly out of the northwest, and Seattle Ridge tends to see less of this funneling effect than the east side of the pass.
The loading patterns can be tricky to pick out, so it is important to be on the lookout for signs of recent and active wind loading. Pay attention to snow blowing off ridgelines, and avoid steep slopes with a smooth, pillowed texture on the surface. A stiff slab sitting on softer snow is another telltale sign of a wind slab. As always, watch for warning signs of unstable snow: shooting cracks, collapsing, and fresh avalanche activity.
Glide avalanches: Glide cracks continue to creep open, and some of them have been releasing in the area. They are large, destructive, and unpredictable so be sure to limit time spent under cracks.
Cornices: With wind as our primary weather concern for the day, we can expect to find sensitive cornices along ridgelines. These might be forming in unusual places given the wind directions. Be careful traveling along ridgelines today, and be sure to keep plenty of space from the edge. It is always a good idea to avoid spending time under cornices, since they can release naturally.
Small rolls like this are a great way to get some feedback about how the snow is behaving. A shooting crack is a sign of unstable snow, telling you to stick to low angle terrain. 04.08.2022.
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Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
We are still paying attention to the April Fool’s interface, which is buried around a foot deep in most places and potentially still capable of producing an avalanche big enough to bury or injure a person. It has been five days since the last human-triggered avalanche on this layer, and we are finding it increasingly difficult to get this layer to fail in test pits. All of this is encouraging, and hopefully we can stop worrying about this interface sometime soon. However, the layer will see increased stress as slopes get loaded by winds today, nudging the needle towards instability. One more issue to consider while making terrain choices today.
I did not get any propagating results on the 4/1 layer yesterday when I was out near Girdwood. This layer was buried about a foot deep in my pit, which is pretty close to average for the advisory area. The more recent 4/5 crust was noticeable, but not reactive in the pit. 04.08.2022.
Yesterday: Light snowfall and overcast skies through the day brought a trace to an inch of precipitation. Winds were light out of the west at 5-10 mph with gusts of 10-25 mph. High temperatures were in the mid 20’s to upper 30’s F, with overnight lows in the teens to high 20’s F.
Today: We should see mostly sunny skies with northwesterly winds around 10-15 mph and gusts of 15-20 mph. Winds are looking to be stronger in Summit and Seward, with lower speeds in Turnagain Pass and Girdwood. Temperatures will be cooler than normal, with highs in the upper teens to upper 20’s F and lows in the low to mid teens. No precipitation is expected today.
Tomorrow: Another clear and sunny day is on tap for tomorrow, with lighter westerly winds at 5-10 mph and gusts of 10-20 mph. Temperatures will be a little warmer, with highs in the upper 20’s to low 30’s F and lows in the mid teens to mid 20’s F. No precipitation is expected.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | 30 | 0 | 0 | 114 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 30 | 0 | 0 | 40 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 30 | 0 | tr | 116 |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | 18 | W | 4 | 11 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 21 | NW | 4 | 12 |
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
03/27/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan Trees | A S Forecaster |
03/26/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Cornbiscuit | Krueger/ Sykes Forecaster |
03/25/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan | Jack Peabody |
03/22/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Magnum Northwest Aspect | Aubrey Palmer |
03/21/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Sunburst | John Sykes Forecaster |
03/21/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan Proper North Aspect | Shasta Hood |
03/20/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Seattle Creek Drainage | Wagner / Keeler Forecaster |
03/19/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan CFR | N. Dumont B. Matthys |
03/18/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan – Eddies – Seattle Ridge | CNFAC Staff |
03/18/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan | jim sweeney |
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