Wed, February 02, 2022 Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Wed, February 2nd, 2022

Alpine
Above 2,500'

Moderate (2)

Treeline
1,000'-2,500'

Moderate (2)

Below Treeline
Below 1,000'

Low (1)

Alpine Above 2,500'		Moderate (2)
Treeline 1,000'-2,500'		Moderate (2)
Below Treeline Below 1,000'		Low (1)

Danger Scale:

No Rating (0)

Low (1)

Moderate (2)

Considerable (3)

High (4)

Extreme (5)

Avalanche Problem 1

Wind Slabs
Almost Certain

Very Likely

Likely

Possible

Unlikely

Likelihood
Historic (D4-5)

Very Large (D3)

Large (D2)

Small (D1)

Size

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Likelihood of Avalanches

Terms such as "unlikely", "likely", and "certain" are used to define the scale, with the chance of triggering or observing avalanches increasing as we move up the scale. For our purposes, "Unlikely" means that few avalanches could be triggered in avalanche terrain and natural avalanches are not expected. "Certain" means that humans will be able to trigger avalanches on many slopes, and natural avalanches are expected.

Size of Avalanches

Avalanche size is defined by the largest potential avalanche, or expected range of sizes related to the problem in question. Assigned size is a qualitative estimate based on the destructive classification system and requires specialists to estimate the harm avalanches may cause to hypothetical objects located in the avalanche track (AAA 2016, CAA 2014). Under this schema, "Small" avalanches are not large enough to bury humans and are relatively harmless unless they carry people over cliffs or through trees or rocks. Moving up the scale, avalanches become "Large" enough to bury, injure, or kill people. "Very Large" avalanches may bury or destroy vehicles or houses, and "Historic" avalanches are massive events capable of altering the landscape.

Signal Word	Size (D scale)	Simple Descriptor
Small	1	Unlikely to bury a person
Large	2	Can bury a person
Very Large	3	Can destroy a house
Historic	4 & 5	Can destroy part or all of a village

More info at Avalanche.org

Today should be a lull between active weather systems with calm winds, temperatures in the teens to twenties, and hopefully improved visibility during the day. The primary avalanche problem is wind slabs 1-3′ deep that were formed during the period of high winds yesterday, which were out of the east averaging 15-30 mph and gusting up to 65 mph on upper ridgelines for a period of almost 24 hours. The fresh wind slabs were touchy at treeline yesterday and we got multiple shooting cracks and small wind loaded features to release within the freshly transported snow. Today they will have had some additional time to adjust but could still be reactive, especially in areas that saw a lot of wind loading yesterday like along upper elevation ridgelines or cross loaded gullies.

We recommend evaluating the terrain and snowpack carefully if you decide to venture into upper treeline and alpine areas today. Look for areas with hollow feeling snow, shooting cracks, and signs of wind loading on the snow surface to identify specific features harboring wind slabs.

There are a few deeper weak layers in the snowpack that could produce larger avalanches if the fresh loading from wind transport has made them more reactive. These include a freezing fog crust from 1/25, which is buried 1-3′ deep, and the New Years Crust. These layers were not reactive in our instability tests yesterday but some of them have produced avalanches during the past week (see ob here) and are worth considering and evaluating before stepping into avalanche terrain. Avalanches on deeper weak layers like the New Years Crust are unlikely but the potential still exists in areas with a shallow overall snowpack, such as the southern portion of Turnagain Pass and wind scoured areas (see ob here for an example of shallow, weak snowpack).

Cornices: High winds yesterday with lots of soft snow at the surface for transport likely added some fresh deposits to existing cornices. It is prudent to give cornices a wide berth when travelling along ridgelines and be aware of their potential to trigger avalanches on the slope below if they release.

Loose Snow Avalanches: In wind sheltered areas the little bit of new snow from yesterday and the existing soft snow on the surface was producing pretty fast running dry loose avalanches (sluffs) in steeper terrain. These will not be big enough to bury a person but could knock you off balance in steeper terrain.

Small shooting crack in a fresh wind deposit at treeline on Pete’s N yesterday. Photo 2.1.22

Hard to see, but this is a small fresh wind slab about a foot deep on a cross loaded ridgeline at treeline. Photo 2.1.22

Sunburst winds over the past 36 hours showing the sustained strong winds along ridgelines that built fresh wind slabs. Photo 2.2.22

Weather

Wed, February 2nd, 2022

Yesterday: A pulse of snowfall and high winds moved through the area yesterday depositing 1-4″ of snow. The winds were averaging 15-30 mph with gusts up to 65 mph on upper ridgelines for about 24 hours. Temperatures stayed in the teens to twenties.

Today: Winds have calmed back down today and should remain calm until tomorrow morning. No new snow is expected today. Temperatures should stay in the teens to twenties. We should see a break in the cloud cover during daylight hours today before another system moves into the area.

Tomorrow: Another storm similar to Tuesday will move through the area but with warmer temperatures causing snowline to move up to 200 – 700′. Strong winds in the 15-35 mph range will accompany light snowfall with a few inches of accumulation possible.

PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

	Temp Avg (F)	Snow (in)	Water (in)	Snow Depth (in)
Center Ridge (1880′)	24	3	0.2	93
Summit Lake (1400′)	20	2	0.1	35
Alyeska Mid (1700′)	23	0	0	84

RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

	Temp Avg (F)	Wind Dir	Wind Avg (mph)	Wind Gust (mph)
Sunburst (3812′)	14	ENE	17	65
Seattle Ridge (2400′)	18	SE	13	34

Observations

Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass

Date	Region	Location	Observer
05/22/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan	Nick D'Alessio
05/12/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan, Sunburst, Magnum, Cornbiscuit	Heather Thamm
05/07/23	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan – Bear Tracks	CNFAIC Staff
05/05/23	Turnagain	Observation: Seattle Ridge	AS/ WW Forecaster
05/02/23	Turnagain	Observation: Cornbiscuit	Schauer/ Sturgess Forecaster
05/02/23	Turnagain	Observation: Seward Hwy Turnagain Pass	Joel Curtis
04/30/23	Turnagain	Observation: Magnum	Ayla, Kit Crosby, Barton
04/29/23	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan	John Sykes
04/28/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Taylor Pass/Pastoral	Schauer/ Creighton Forecaster
04/28/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan	Andy Moderow

Riding Areas

Updated Thu, June 01st, 2023

Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us

Area	Status	Weather & Riding Conditions
Glacier District
Johnson Pass	Closed	Closed May 15.
Placer River	Closed	Closed May 15.
Skookum Drainage	Closed	Will close to motorized use on April 1, 2023 per the National Forest Plan.
Turnagain Pass	Closed	Will close on June 1.
Twentymile	Closed	Scheduled closure May 1.
Seward District
Carter Lake	Closed	Scheduled closure May 1.
Lost Lake Trail	Closed	Scheduled closure May 1.
Primrose Trail	Closed	Scheduled closure May 1.
Resurrection Pass Trail	Closed	Closed to motorized use for the 2022/23 winter season per Forest Plan. Open next season.
Snug Harbor	Closed	Extended opening until May 15.
South Fork Snow River Corridor	Closed	Scheduled closure May 1.
Summit Lake	Closed	Scheduled closure May 1.