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The avalanche danger is MODERATE above 1000′ today. It is still possible for people to trigger a very large avalanche 3-6’+ deep on a buried weak layer. There have been several near misses on this layer in the past week and unfortunately this type of weak layer takes a long time to go away. We recommend conservative terrain selection and emphasize the potential to remote trigger avalanches above, to the sides, or below where you are travelling. It is also likely for people to trigger small avalanches 6-12″ deep in the recent storm snow. Below 1000′ the avalanche danger is LOW.
Alaska Avalanche School has several slots open in their upcoming Motorized Avalanche Rescue course in Turnagain Pass on January 15th. This is a great affordable opportunity to invest in your own skills and knowledge to help keep yourself and your partners safe in avalanche terrain!
Forecaster Chat #2: Join us at the Girdwood Brewing Co. from 5:30-7:00 p.m. on Thursday, Jan. 19! CNFAIC forecaster Andrew Schauer will open the night with an overview of the state of the snowpack, followed by a discussion on how safe terrain management changes depending on the type of avalanche problem at hand. More details here.
Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
We got some reports of shallow but sensitive storm and wind slabs yesterday. Despite only 6″ of new snow on Tuesday night into Wednesday, it fell on top of a layer of surface hoar and surface facets which is causing reactive conditions especially in wind loaded areas. A group on Tincan yesterday was able to trigger a few pockets of this storm snow. Prior to those shallow slabs the last know avalanches were two very large skier triggered avalanches on the SW and N face of Cornbiscuit on Saturday Jan 7th. See the Near Miss Report HERE.
Shallow storm slab releasing on top of buried surface hoar and surface facets on Tincan. Photo from Anonymous 1.11.23
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
We are still in a holding pattern waiting for a layer of facets above the Thanksgiving melt freeze crust to slowly gain strength and be buried deeper by future storms. This is a tricky avalanche problem because it requires patience to allow the snowpack to slowly heal itself. With that layer currently buried 3-6′ deep it is very hard to test using standard stability tests in snowpits. Unfortunately this is the type of weak layer setup that can last for weeks to months, but since it is already buried quite deeply hopefully a few more good storms will put that layer to rest until the spring.
We have seen ample evidence of very large natural and human triggered avalanches on this weak layer in the past week in Turnagain Pass and surrounding areas. Some of these avalanches had extraordinary propagation, which means avalanches can be very wide and connected across multiple terrain features. For now we are continuing to recommend sticking to smaller terrain features, low angle slopes, and being very aware of the potential for remote triggering a slope above, to the sides, or below where you are travelling. This layer is most concerning above 2500′. In the meantime, there is good skiing and riding to be found at lower elevations.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Tuesday night we received about 6″ of new snow that has been quite reactive to human triggering (see recent avalanches). These storm slabs and wind slabs are only about 6-12″ deep right now but could stay sensitive to human triggering for longer than normal since they are sitting on top of surface hoar and near surface facets. With wind speeds gusting up to 30 mph at ridge tops over the past 24 hours human triggered avalanches are still likely for these shallow surface instabilities today. To identify areas with reactive surface slabs keep an eye out for shooting cracks on steeper terrain features and use small test slops to check how well the new snow is bonding to the old snow surface.
Yesterday: Snowfall stopped Wednesday morning with around 4-6″ falling overnight above 500′. Light to moderate wind speed at upper elevations with averages of 0-10 mph and gusts up to 30 mph. Temperatures in the low thirties at sea level and mid twenties at upper elevations. Skies cleared throughout the day, ending mostly sunny with some lingering clouds in valley bottoms.
Today: Light precipitation near coastal areas with snow line around 500-900′ today. Up to 1-2″ of snowfall possible near Portage. Wind speeds averaging 5-10 mph with gusts up to 25 mph trending towards decreasing wind speed throughout the day. Temperatures should remain in the mid thirties at sea level and twenties at upper elevations. Low and mid level cloud cover is expected in the forecast area today with a trend toward clearing in the evening.
Tomorrow: Friday looks very similar to Thursday except with lighter winds. No significant new snowfall expected until Saturday at the earliest.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | 29 | 0 | 0 | 60 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 19 | 0 | 0 | 33 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 30 | 0 | 0 | 55 |
Bear Valley – Portage (132′) | 34 | 0 | 0.1 | – |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | 12 | ENE | 8 | 22 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 25.5 | – | – | – |
* Seattle Ridge weather station is not reporting wind speed since 700 pm on Jan 10th
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
10/27/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan | Michael Kerst |
10/21/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Road Observation | Trevor Clayton |
10/19/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan – Below Todds Run | Andy Moderow |
10/18/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Taylor Pass | Eli Neuffer |
10/15/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan Common | John Sykes Forecaster |
10/14/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | CNFAC Staff |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South | H Thamm |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side | Amy Holman |
05/12/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Warm up Bowl | Tony Naciuk |
05/07/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs | A S |
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