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The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE above 1000′. Human triggered and natural avalanches in areas being actively wind loaded are likely. A weak layer buried 1-3′ deep could also produce very large avalanches. We recommend sticking to low angle terrain and being aware of overhead runout zones to avoid avalanches today.
Below 1000′ the avalanche danger is MODERATE. A thick icy crust exists on the surface at these elevations which could melt due to warm temperatures an sunshine today leading to wet avalanches on the surface.
Summit Lake Avalanche Accident: An avalanche was triggered on Tuesday February 13th by a group of three backcountry skiers on John Mtn. Two of the three people involved sustained injuries and the third did not survive. Our deepest condolences go out to the friends and family of the deceased. A preliminary accident report is available here and we will publish a full report by the end of next week.
Sat, February 17th, 2024 |
Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
There were no new avalanches that we are aware of yesterday. The combination of warm temperatures and the sun gaining power this time of year has led to reports of some wet loose avalanches over the past couple days. So far these seem to mostly be on steep south facing slopes.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Strong winds are expected to continue today, forming fresh wind slabs at treeline and above. Despite days of strong winds this week, there was still lots of snow being transported along the surface yesterday. Wind slabs will be forming along ridgelines, gullies, and convex features from treeline elevations and up. Natural and human triggered avalanches are likely with the constant wind loading that has taken place all week. To identify areas with wind slabs look for active wind loading, shooting cracks, and hollow feeling snow. Keep in mind that wind slabs could be firmer than typical due to the steady strong winds and may cause larger than normal avalanches. In addition to the surface wind slabs we also have a persistent weak layer buried about 1-3′ deep in the snowpack that could cause larger avalanches (more details in problem 2).
Wet loose avalanches have also been observed on steep south facing terrain. With temperatures in the 30s F for the past several days combined with the sun gaining strength, it feels like a springtime snowpack out there. We have observed roller balls and wet loose avalanches on steep south facing terrain. These avalanches tend to start out small from a single point near a tree or rock, but can grow to be quite large if they run down a slope and entrain more loose snow on the way down.
Cornices are also a concern today due to the combination of constant loading from the winds this week and warm temperatures and sun weakening their bond to the ridgelines. Try to avoid travelling underneath large cornices if possible, especially if they are being actively wind loaded and receiving sun on the windward side.
Winds are still transporting enough snow to form large plumes along ridgelines, despite the prior 3 days of strong winds. Photo 2.15.24
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
A weak layer of faceted snow buried about 1-3′ deep that formed during the cold and clear weather in January remains a concern. We are still uncertain about how widespread this weak layer is at upper elevations, but we have consistently found the weak layer from roughly 1000′ to 2500′ in elevation. This persistent weak layer has the potential to cause very large avalanches and could be remote triggered from above, below, or to the sides of steeper terrain. The best way to avoid triggering an avalanche on this type of weak layer is to stick to low angle terrain and try to avoid runout areas of overhead avalanche paths. One of the tricky parts about persistent weak layers is that you need to dig into the snowpack to assess them. Performing stability tests like an extended column test is a great way to get some information, but if you get a stable test result the layer could still be a problem. It takes time for this type of weak layer to heal, being patient and sticking to safe terrain is the only way to be confident you won’t be surprised by a persistent weak layer.
Yesterday: Warm and windy with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. Wind speeds averaged 30 mph out of the east at upper elevations with gusts to 66 mph. Near treeline the winds were still blowing roughly 15 mph from the east and still capable of transporting new snow. Temperatures were in the mid 30s F at the road and mid 20s F at upper elevations.
Today: Weather conditions look very similar to yesterday, with strong winds being the defining factor. Temperatures should be in the mid 30s F at lower elevation and mid 20s F at upper elevations. Winds will remain in the 30-45 mph range out of the east with gusts up to 65 mph. Clear skies are expected throughout the day. No precipitation is expected.
Tomorrow: Some cloud cover is expected to move into the area overnight on Friday. Temperatures are expected to remain warm with highs in the mid 30s F a low elevations. Winds will remain strong with averages of 30-45 mph out of the east overnight and through the first half of the day on Saturday, but should start to decrease slightly during the day on Saturday to averages of 20-30 mph out of the east on Saturday afternoon. We could see some light snowfall on Saturday afternoon as well, with up to 1-2″ of snow accumulation. Rain line is expected to be at 1500′ on Saturday afternoon and rise to 2000′ on Sunday.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | 35 | 0 | 0 | 85 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 46 | 0 | 0 | 43 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 34 | 0 | 0 | 94 |
Bear Valley – Portage (132′) | 42 | 0 | 0 | – |
Grouse Ck (700′) | 34 | 0 | 0 | 61 |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | 26 | ENE | 31 | 66 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 30 | SE | 15 | 33 |
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
10/27/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan | Michael Kerst |
10/21/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Road Observation | Trevor Clayton |
10/19/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan – Below Todds Run | Andy Moderow |
10/18/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Taylor Pass | Eli Neuffer |
10/15/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan Common | John Sykes Forecaster |
10/14/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | CNFAC Staff |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South | H Thamm |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side | Amy Holman |
05/12/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Warm up Bowl | Tony Naciuk |
05/07/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs | A S |
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