Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

The last human-triggered avalanches were 13 days ago now, when multiple people were caught, carried, and some partially buried in avalanches failing on the layer of buried surface hoar we are still concerned with. You can find details from some of these avalanches here and here.

Today looks to be another insignificant day of weather for contributing to any heightened avalanche activity.  We are however, still dealing with a lurking layer of buried surface hoar 2-3’ under the surface that was responsible for a very active human-triggered avalanche cycle two weekends ago.  Our benign weather this week has further allowed this layer to gain strength and it is proving more stubborn to trigger but we can’t forget about it just yet.

Buried surface hoar is a notoriously tricky weak layer that tends to persist (ie: persistent slab) and has potential to cause problems weeks after it is buried.  Hence why a cautious mindset is still warranted even two weeks after it was last active in our area.  It’s still worth taking the time to test this layer on your snowmachine or skis before committing to any bigger, more consequential terrain.  A quick snowpit or sled cut on a small no-consequence slope is a great way to feel out this weak layer 2-3’ down.  If you get any propagating results from a snowpit or other red flags (cracking or collapsing in the snowpack), that should be evidence enough to keep your terrain mellow.  You can still avoid this problem entirely by sticking to slopes less than 30 degrees.

Loose snow/ sluffs: There have been reports of just enough loose snow at the surface (4-8″ of new snow this week combined with surface faceting) to justify mentioning the possibility of loose snow avalanches/ sluffs.  Keep your sluff management in mind if you find yourself pushing onto steep, high alpine slopes today.

This avalanche ran on the layer of buried surface hoar that is widespread throughout or region, 2-3′ below the surface.  Though becoming less likely to trigger,  it’s important to keep consequences in mind.  If the slope does slide, am I above a terrain trap or is there a clean runout?  Photo: Goat Mountain (Girdwood Valley), 2.2.2023

If the video doesn’t load in your browser you can click here to view it.

We’ve catalogued the Thanksgiving crust/ facet layer as an ‘additional concern’.  It still exists toward the bottom of our snowpack (4-8’ deep) but is becoming very unlikely that a person could trigger an avalanche that deep.  With a major loading event or significant warm up this may pop back up as a more prominent concern in the forecast but for now its very unlikely to see an avalanche breaking this deep in our snowpack.