|Signal Word||Size (D scale)||Simple Descriptor|
|Small||1||Unlikely to bury a person|
|Large||2||Can bury a person|
|Very Large||3||Can destroy a house|
|Historic||4 & 5||Can destroy part or all of a village|
Here we are three days out from the last storm, and still concerned with how well the new snow is bonding to the old surfaces. This is because the latest storm buried a variety of weak surfaces including surface hoar, near-surface facets, and a crust. Unfortunately these weak surfaces are slow to heal, and we may be headed into persistent slab territory. Since the snow fell on Saturday, we’ve seen natural and human-triggered avalanches near Girdwood, Turnagain Pass, the Placer Valley, and the Lynx Creek area. Some of these have been quite large, and we’ve found surface hoar at the bed surface at every avalanche crown we’ve been able to visit- most recently at the crown of an avalanche above Main Bowl on Seattle Ridge that we looked at yesterday.
We’ve noticed some concerning patterns with the recent activity. There have been multiple avalanches where somebody triggered an avalanche after there were multiple sets of tracks on the slope. We’ve also gotten multiple reports of remotely triggered avalanches. As we move further out from the last major loading event, the weak layer is slowly becoming less reactive, but it is still possible to trigger an avalanche today.
This weak layer seems to be present at most places in our advisory area, but it isn’t everywhere. There have been quite a few people getting out into avalanche terrain without triggering an avalanche over the past few days. If you are trying to get into steep terrain today, be aware that you are taking on a fair amount of risk, and do your homework. Look out for the classic signs of unstable snow- shooting cracks, collapses, and fresh avalanche activity. Take the time to hop off your machine or step off the skin track and look for this weak layer. It is easily identified in a quick hand pit, and is only buried about a foot deep in most locations. If you notice any warning signs, or if you identify the weak layer, use that as a sign to back off your objective. If you feel confident in your snowpack assessment, cover your bases by only exposing one person at a time to avalanche terrain and watch your partners from safe spots. If you’d rather not roll the dice, you can avoid the risk by sticking to lower angle terrain.
Winds are expected to bump up slightly this afternoon as the next round of active weather approaches. Be on the lookout for changing conditions if the storm arrives sooner than expected, and stay tuned over the next couple days as the storm develops.
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Yesterday: Skies were partly cloudy with high temperatures in the upper 20’s to upper 30’s F. Winds were light at 5-15 mph out of the east with gusts of 20-30 mph. Temperatures got down to the mid 20’s overnight, with no precipitation in the past 24 hours.
Today: Cloud cover is increasing today as the next round of snow approaches tonight. Winds will pick up slightly, blowing 10-15 mph and gusting around 20 mph out of the east. High temperatures are looking to be in the mid 20’s to upper 30’s F, with lows dropping down to the upper teens to mid 20’s F. Light snow is expected to start around sunset tonight. No precipitation is expected during the day.
Tomorrow: Active weather returns tonight, with light snowfall throughout the area. Our forecast zone is looking to receive 1-2″ overnight tonight, with another 2-5″ tomorrow. Easterly winds will bump up a little bit more tomorrow, with sustained speeds of 15-25 mph and gusts around 25-35 mph. The rain level should stay down around 200-600′, with high temperatures in the mid 20’s to upper 30’s F.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
|Temp Avg (F)||Snow (in)||Water (in)||Snow Depth (in)|
|Center Ridge (1880′)||32||0||0||94|
|Summit Lake (1400′)||25||0||0||41|
|Alyeska Mid (1700′)||32||0||0||107|
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
|Temp Avg (F)||Wind Dir||Wind Avg (mph)||Wind Gust (mph)|
|Seattle Ridge (2400′)||25||SE||11||20|
|05/11/22||Turnagain||Avalanche: Cornbiscuit and Magnum west faces||CNFAIC Staff Forecaster|
|05/07/22||Turnagain||Observation: Granddaddy||Kit Barton|
|04/29/22||Turnagain||Observation: Sunburst wx station||AS/ MM/ AM/ NH|
|04/28/22||Turnagain||Observation: More Turnagain Pass/Summit Lake wet slab activity||Alex Marienthal|
|04/27/22||Turnagain||Observation: Magnum||Sykes / Buttrick Forecaster|
|04/27/22||Turnagain||Observation: Girdwood/Summit/Turnagain Road obs||A S|
|04/24/22||Turnagain||Avalanche: Seattle Ridge – large glide avalanche on Repeat Offender path||CNFAIC Staff Forecaster|
|04/24/22||Turnagain||Avalanche: Seattle Ridge uptrack||Martin Schmidt|
|04/24/22||Turnagain||Observation: Pastoral||Jason Konigsberg|
|04/24/22||Turnagain||Observation: Sunburst||Lance breeding|
Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: email@example.com
|Area||Status||Weather & Riding Conditions|
This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.