Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

No known avalanche activity from yesterday. There were several human triggered avalanches, most of them remotely triggered from the top/side, on Saturday. See them listed on Andrew’s forecast from yesterday HERE.

A low-pressure churning in the Gulf is sending clouds, light snowfall and wind our way. Around midnight, ridgetop winds turned easterly and have climbed to the 20’s mph already with forecasted winds today in the 20-30 mph range with gusts near 50mph. Snowfall is on the modest side, with 2-3″ expected for Turnagain, 3-5″ for Girdwood and only a trace in Summit lake (a bit more tomorrow). With a welcome warm up to a more reasonable 15-25F, snow is expected to fall to sea level as temperatures in general remain below freezing,

Wind slabs and cornices are likely building as we speak and may even be releasing naturally. With upwards of 2 feet of loose snow available for transport, even on ridgetops, it should not take long for this new avalanche problem to develop. Essentially, we have fresh wind slabs forming over the top of our persistent slab issue we’ve been dealing with. More on that below.

Things to keep in mind today:

• Watch for, and avoid, slopes that are being actively loaded
  • New slabs are likely to be very touchy
  • They could step down to buried weak layers, creating a much larger avalanche
• Pay attention to any cracking in the snow around you or collapsing (whumpfing)
• Sticking to areas below treeline (below ~2,500′) and out of the wind will drastically reduce the chance for triggering an avalanche.

Snowfall totals expected over the next three days. We are fortunate to have such support from the Anchorage NWS Forecast Office!

As we’ve been harping on, those weak layers under last week’s new snow are still a concern. Whether it is a layer of buried surface hoar or facets, the main point is, weak layers of snow sit around 2′ below the surface. It was evident they were still reactive on Saturday in both Turnagain and Girdwood. Several remotely triggered slabs occurred on Seattle Ridge (both sides of the ridge) and one remote triggered slab on Max’s in Girdwood Valley. Luckily, no one was caught up in any of these.

With new wind slabs forming on top of these weak layers, it’s a likely case that a wind slab avalanche could step down and trigger a larger slab, as mentioned above. However, what about those areas out of the wind? We still need to keep our guard up and look for any signs the loose snow has enough cohesion to act like a slab. Both cracking and whumpfing, along with feeling the snow with your boot or ski pole, to see if there is any stiff snow hidden under the top foot or so will good ways to assess the slope you are on.

Three pockets (small slab avalanches) that were remotely triggered from either the ridge or, more likely, from a snowmachiner out of view to the looker’s right of the slabs. Seattle Ridge, Minus 1 Bowl (Warmup Bowl), 11.27.21.

Remotely triggered slab on the SE face of Seattle Ridge by riders playing in the lower angle terrain above and to the side. Photo: Andy Moderow, 11.27.21.

Glide avalanches have really slowed down (relatively…) in the past two weeks. The last known glide crack that released was on Lipps SW face, sometime in the past week. With so many glide cracks in the area, and the fact there is no way to know when they will release, limiting your time under these is just a good idea. They really would be a horrible thing to encounter, potentially unsurvivable.