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The avalanche danger is MODERATE at all elevations. By this afternoon, daytime warming may be enough to melt surface crusts and cause natural wet loose avalanches on steep southerly slopes. On shaded slopes, and sunlit slopes in the afternoon, there is still a chance someone could trigger a large slab 2 to 3 feet deep.
*Tomorrow, Thursday, warmer temperatures and sunshine is expected. This could bump the danger back to CONSIDERABLE for wet avalanches in the afternoon/evening hours.
THIS SATURDAY!! Turnagain Pass Avalanche Awareness Day – March 23
Swing by the Turnagain motorized parking lot between noon and 4pm to grab a hotdog, practice your beacons skills, chat with the forecast team, and possibly test out a demo snowmachine provided by local dealers. We are crossing our fingers the sunny weather lasts a few more days!
Thu, March 21st, 2024 |
Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
No new avalanches were reported yesterday. However, it’s likely that at least some wet loose slides occurred in steep rocky terrain during the afternoon hot temperatures. Two days ago there was a report of a natural slab avalanche seen in motion from Tincan, this was on Monday and pictured below.
Avalanche seen in motion on Monday while digging a snowpit on Tincan. Thanks to Bryce Barnes for snapping this pic and the added info! 3.18.24.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
The springtime transition is beginning. Yesterday was the first ‘official’ day of spring and for the next 6 months our days will be longer than our friends in the lower-48. With increasing daylight and generally warming temperatures the snowpack will undergo a change from cold wintertime snow to warm/melt-freeze summertime snow. This transition can take weeks and create very large natural avalanches at times. Something to keep in mind for the next month or more.
Wet Loose Avalanches: For today, despite the sunshine, a light westerly breeze may keep the snow a bit cooler than yesterday. However, surface crusts should melt to some degree by this afternoon. These crusts are found on southerly aspects and all aspects at the mid and lower elevations. A reminder that the warmest part of the day is between 2 and 5pm. Once these crusts melt then wet loose avalanches will become possible. Watch for indicator slopes like steep rocky terrain baking in the sun where the darker colors of rocks/vegetation enhances warming. This is often where wet loose slides start. Triggering a wet loose avalanche can be easy and inconsequential, but if caught very hard to escape from. These wet ‘sluffs’ can also trigger slab avalanches below.
Glide Avalanches: Glide cracks are starting to open again. Pictured below is an opening crack on Eddies southerly face around 2,000′. If you see these cracks it’s best to avoid being under them, or go fast and one at a time, in case they happen to release into an avalanche.
Glide crack opening on Eddies south face. Seen from Tincan. Thank you to N. Dumont B. Matthys for the photo. 3.19.24.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
There is a layer of weak snow and/or buried surface hoar between 2-3′ deep. It’s the layer under all that storm snow from last week. Snow pit tests are still showing concerning results, meaning the potential for us to trigger a large avalanche. Side note: for a reminder on the snow science jargon used in observations, check out Andrew’s Cheat Sheet on interpreting stability tests. The last avalanches we know of for certain were from last Thursday, but a few others, including the one seen on Monday on Seattle Ridge, may have released on this layer.
The most likely place to trigger a slab is where the surface still has soft settled powder (shaded steep slopes) or in the afternoon on southerly aspects when the surface crusts have melted. Essentially where the riding/skiing is best. The chances of triggering a slab 2-3′ deep is decreasing, but it’s still a possibility, which is that tricky situation we often find ourselves in.
It is difficult to assess buried weak layers because no obvious signs of instability may be present and the snowpack can ‘feel stable’. In this case, snow pits are the only tool that might provide useful information. Yet pit tests can provide false stable or inconsistent results and we don’t recommend relying entirely on pit information to make ‘go’ or ‘no-go’ decisions. If you decide to travel in steeper terrain we recommend giving yourself a wider margin for error, carefully evaluating the snowpack, and using safe travel practices to minimize your group’s exposure.
Snowpit at 2,700′ on a WSW aspect on Tincan from two days ago, Monday. Test results in an Extended Column Test showed a layer of buried surface hoar propagated across the column, a concerning test result. Photo and pit by Bryce Barnes 3.18.24.
Yesterday: High clouds were over the region with sunshine poking through regularly. Daytime warming bumped temperatures to low 30sF along ridgelines and 40sF at the lower elevations. Ridgetop winds were light and variable.
Today: Another mostly sunny day is forecast today with some patchy valley fog. Ridgetop winds look to be light from the west around 5-10mph. Daytime warming should be similar to yesterday, rising from the 20sF at most locations to the low 40s at low elevations and low 30s on the ridges.
Tomorrow: Two more mostly sunny days are shaping up for Thursday into Friday. High clouds with some patchy fog is still possible. Ridgetop winds should be light and variable. Daytime warming looks to be increasing for Thursday (a few degrees warming than today), and less so on Friday (similar to today).
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | 31 | 0 | 0 | 100 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 28 | 0 | 0 | 44 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 32 | 0 | 0 | 102 |
Bear Valley – Portage (132′) | 31 | 0 | 0 | – |
Grouse Ck (700′) | 34 | 0 | 0 | 70 |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | 28 | ENE | 3 | 10 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 31 | SW | 1 | 4 |
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
10/27/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan | Michael Kerst |
10/21/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Road Observation | Trevor Clayton |
10/19/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan – Below Todds Run | Andy Moderow |
10/18/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Taylor Pass | Eli Neuffer |
10/15/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan Common | John Sykes Forecaster |
10/14/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | CNFAC Staff |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South | H Thamm |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side | Amy Holman |
05/12/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Warm up Bowl | Tony Naciuk |
05/07/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs | A S |
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