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The avalanche danger is MODERATE above 1000′. It remains possible that a person could trigger a slab avalanche around 2 feet deep that breaks on a hidden layer of buried surface hoar. Slopes at elevations above the surface crust are the most likely places to trigger a slide. The danger is LOW below 1000′ where the snowpack is mostly crusts.
SUMMIT LAKE: The Summit Lake area has a much thinner and weaker snowpack than Turnagain Pass. This makes human-triggered avalanches a little more likely, which means steeper terrain should be approached with more caution.
Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
No avalanche activity has been reported or seen since last Saturday’s warm up; several wet loose avalanches released with some pulling out small slabs on steep southerly slopes. The last known human-triggered avalanches were 11 days ago (1/21). Multiple people were caught and carried in avalanches failing on a layer of buried surface hoar around 2′ deep.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Fabulous February begins! Our days are 2 hours and 20 minutes longer since the winter solstice and now all we need is a fresh round of snowfall – to sea level. Until then, the snowpack is continuing to stabilize, yet we are still chirping about the buried surface hoar that sits a couple feet deep. We found this layer easily again yesterday south of Turnagain Pass in the Johnson Pass area. We did not see any signs of instability, and could not get the layer to react in our snow pit. Great signs. Evidence is still pointing to a healing weak layer. However, we know these weak layers can pull out surprises and that’s what we have to watch out for.
If venturing out today, remember a weak layer exists around 2-3′ deep and we could trigger an avalanche in just the right spot. Slopes above ~2,000′ that do not have a surface crust are the most suspect. Tracks on a slope doesn’t necessarily mean it’s stable and we are not likely to see any signs of instability. This is the tricky nature of old buried weak layers. Venturing out into untraveled areas is also suspect.
Following safe travel protocol is our best friend if choosing to push into the steeper terrain. This means exposing one person at a time, having our escape routes planned, making sure our partners are watching and know how to effect a rescue if the slope suddenly releases. As we’ve also been saying, to avoid all this uncertainty we can keep it mellow and just stick to slopes ~30 deg. or less.
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Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
If you’ve been reading this far down in the forecast for the last month, you know that we aren’t quite ready to put to bed that facet/crust combo that sits around the Thanksgiving Crust. This old complex of weak snow and crusts is buried 4-8’ deep and would be very unlikely that a person could trigger it. However, in shallow zones such as the Summit Lake area to the south of the forecast zone, the possibility is slightly greater due to the thinner pack. If headed out to the thinner snowpack areas keep this layer in mind too.
Yesterday: Partly cloudy skies were over the region with the sun shining in some locations. Ridgetop winds were impressively calm. Temperatures were mild, near 30F at the lower elevations and mid 20’s along ridgetops.
Today: Cloudy skies will be over the region today with a chance for a few flurries. Only a trace of snow is expected to accumulate. Ridgetop winds are slated to be light, ~5mph, from the east to southeast. Temperatures should remain near 30 at the lower elevations and in the mid 20’sF along ridgelines.
Tomorrow: Similar conditions are expected for tomorrow and through Saturday. Mostly cloudy skies, some snow flurries, light easterly winds. Temperatures look to be on a cooling trend into Saturday. The next round of decent snowfall might be developing for Sunday/Monday. Stay tuned!
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | 28 | 0 | 0 | 63 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 26 | 0 | 0 | 33 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 28 | 0 | 0 | 64 |
Bear Valley – Portage (132′) | 30 | 0 | 0 | – |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | 23 | variable | 1 | 6 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 25 | variable | 1 | 6 |
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
10/27/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan | Michael Kerst |
10/21/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Road Observation | Trevor Clayton |
10/19/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan – Below Todds Run | Andy Moderow |
10/18/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Taylor Pass | Eli Neuffer |
10/15/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan Common | John Sykes Forecaster |
10/14/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | CNFAC Staff |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South | H Thamm |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side | Amy Holman |
05/12/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Warm up Bowl | Tony Naciuk |
05/07/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs | A S |
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