Turnagain Pass
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The avalanche danger is MODERATE at all elevations. Below 2,000′ warmer temperatures will make it easy to trigger a wet snow avalanche on steep slopes. There is also a small chance of triggering a larger avalanche in mid to upper elevations on a buried weak layer 1-3′ deep.
Roof Avalanches: Roof avalanches will continue to release due to warm temperatures so keep your head up as you travel near roofs.
SUMMIT AND SEWARD: Wet snow avalanches are also a concern in these zones. We are not sure how high the snow surface froze but it is likely lower and mid elevation snow is saturated and likely to produced wet loose avalanches.
Hatcher Pass: Come check out the fundraiser film put on by the Hatcher Pass Avalanche Center at the BearTooth TOMMORROW! The Mountain in My Mind is the film, more details HERE!
Thu, March 28th, 2024 |
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Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
No new avalanches were reported yesterday. Cloudy skies and poor visibility have made it difficult to see if new avalanches occurred. However, with rain at lower elevations and warmer temperatures there is a chance natural avalanches have occurred especially in Portage and Placer. In Summit Pass, glide avalanches have been releasing for the past week.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
It has been 4 days since we have had prolonged freezing temperatures overnight below 2000′. When the snow surface freezes long enough to create a stout crust it decreases the likelihood that a wet avalanche can occur. If the surface did not freeze overnight, wet snow loses strength making it easy to trigger a wet loose avalanche on steep slopes. This problem will exist on all aspects, especially on southern aspects where up to a foot of saturated snow was found yesterday. These can be large enough to bury a person if they get carried into a terrain trap. If you get out today and the surface does not have a stout crust, your boot sinks above your ankle, and small test slopes trigger wet loose avalanches, it is likely to trigger a larger wet loose avalanche on bigger, steeper slopes.
Wet Slab: As temperatures remain warm, we are getting increasingly wary that there is a chance of natural wet slab avalanches especially on south aspects and lower elevations. Although humans essentially cannot trigger a wet slab avalanche, a large wet loose avalanche may trigger a wet slab. These can be large and destructive and run into lower angle terrain.
Wind Slab: There is a small chance you could trigger a lingering wind slab avalanche in steep wind loaded terrain above 2,000′ that formed over the few days. These will be larger in Girdwood and Portage/Placer as more snow fell in the past few days. Keep an eye out for cracking below you and stiff, wind deposited snow over soft snow, all indicators you are traveling on a wind loaded slope.
Several buried weak layers 1′ to 3′ deep still exist across the forecast area. We think it is becoming unlikely to trigger a larger slab on a buried layer of surface hoar and facets. This will be even less likely if a stout crust freezes on the surface. Regardless, increase your margins for safety by exposing one person at a time in avalanche terrain and watching others from safe spots away from run out zones.
Yesterday: Mostly cloudy skies with sunshine occasionally poking through the clouds. Winds were calm at the road and averaged 15 mph on ridgelines. Warmer temperatures at the highway averaged 31 F to 38 F with 42 F recorded in Portage Valley.
Today: Mostly cloudy skies with valley clouds are forecast to slowly dissipate throughout the day. It is likely that the sun will poke out occasionally. Northeast winds are expected to be light (0 to 10 mph). Light snow is possible and will likely dissipate by the afternoon. Overnight temperatures barely dipped below freezing (31 F) in Turnagain Pass. Temperatures near sea level look to rise to the high 30s F to low 40s F.
Tomorrow: Cloudy skies are expected to break up a little, allowing the sun to shine in the afternoon. Light winds out of the north (0 to 10 mph) are forecast with little to no precipitation. Temperatures should be cooling slowly with Turnagain pass rising to low 30s F briefly. Girdwood and Portage also look to be cooler with temperatures in the mid 30s F.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | 33 | 0 | 0 | 95 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 34 | 0 | 0 | 42 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 34 | 0 | 0 | 100 |
Bear Valley – Portage (132′) | 37 | Rain | .27 | – |
Grouse Ck (700′) | 36 | 0 | 0 | 63 |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | 24 | NE | 8 | 15 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 28 | SE | 8 | 12 |
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
10/27/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan | Michael Kerst |
10/21/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Road Observation | Trevor Clayton |
10/19/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan – Below Todds Run | Andy Moderow |
10/18/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Taylor Pass | Eli Neuffer |
10/15/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan Common | John Sykes Forecaster |
10/14/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | CNFAC Staff |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South | H Thamm |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side | Amy Holman |
05/12/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Warm up Bowl | Tony Naciuk |
05/07/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs | A S |
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