Turnagain Pass
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The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE above 2500′. Fresh wind slabs up to 12″ deep will be forming today as a storm system impacts the forecast area with 2-8″ of new snow and 20-40 mph east winds. These wind slab avalanches are likely to cause small natural or human triggered avalanches.
Below 2500′ the avalanche danger is MODERATE. We expect that a melt freeze crust has formed on the surface at these elevations, which will limit the potential for wind slab formation to just the new snow that falls today. Wet loose avalanches will become possible as the rain line creeps up to roughly 200′ by this evening.
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Sat, March 30th, 2024 |
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Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
A storm system is entering the area today and bringing strong winds and snowfall. For today the winds will likely be the bigger driver of avalanche conditions, because we are only expecting 2-3″ of new snow in Turnagain Pass, 4-6″ in Girdwood, and closer to 6-8″ in Portage and Placer. The winds are expected to reach averages of 20-40 mph out of the east with gusts possible up to 60 mph.
After the past week of warm and wet weather the snowpack at lower elevations is capped by a layer of wet snow up to about 2000′. Clear skies last night as the sun was setting should have allowed that wet snow on the surface to freeze into a solid melt freeze crust, which means there won’t be much snow for the wind to transport into fresh wind slabs at lower elevations except for whatever new snow falls today. Above roughly 2000′ the snowpack remains mostly dry, with sun crusts likely on southern aspects and dry surface conditions on northern aspects. At these higher elevations fresh wind slabs will be forming today, making natural and human triggered wind slab avalanches up to 12″ deep likely. If you brave the low visibility and get up to higher elevations keep an eye out for active wind loading, shooting cracks, and small avalanches on test slopes to get a sense for where wind slabs are forming.
Storm slab avalanches could be possible within the new snow by the end of the day if the storm over performs and brings 8+” of new snow to favored locations, such as Portage or Placer Valley.
Snowfall graphic for Friday at 4am through Saturday at 4am. Courtesy of NWS Anchorage 3.29.34
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
The combination of cooler temperatures last night and clear skies around sunset should have allowed the wet snow on the surface to freeze into a solid melt freeze crust. Today we are expecting cloudy conditions and cooler temperatures, which should keep the wet snow avalanche problems isolated to the lowest elevations where rain is likely to start falling up to roughly 200′ this afternoon. For now we can pump the brakes on the transition to a spring wet snow cycle, but it will be sure to resume once temperatures rise again and the sun makes another appearance.
Prime conditions for forming a melt freeze crust on the surface, with clear skies and cooler temperatures last night ahead of the incoming storm system. Photo 3.28.24
We continue to find buried weak layers 1-3′ deep in the snowpack, which were responsible for a bunch of human triggered avalanches 2 weeks ago. Now that those layers have had some time to gain strength it is unlikely for a person to trigger an avalanche on them. However, it is still unsettling to have widespread persistent weak layers in our snowpack because they can be unpredictable and are capable of surprising us, so we will continue to monitor and test them moving forward.
Yesterday: Mostly cloudy in the morning then transitioning to mostly sunny in the afternoon. No new snowfall with winds averaging 0-5 mph from the W for most of the day before switching to E around 10 pm and increasing to averages of 10-15 mph overnight with gusts up to 30 mph. Temperatures were in the high teens to mid 20s F at upper elevations and mid 20s to mid 30s F at lower elevations.
Today: Strong winds started to pick up overnight and will continue to intensify today reaching averages of 20-40 mph out of the east with gusts possible up to 60 mph. Snowfall will accompany the windy conditions starting this morning with 2-3″ expected in Turnagain Pass, 4-6″ in Girdwood, and closer to 6-8″ in Portage and Placer. Snow line will start out at sea level and rise to about 200′ during the day today. Temperatures should stay somewhat cooler today, in the low 30s F at low elevations and mid 20s F at upper elevations.
Tomorrow: Continued wind and snowfall are expected tomorrow, with an additional 6-8″ of new snow in Turnagain Pass, 8-12″ in Girdwood and Portage/Placer area. Winds will remain strong with averages of 40-55 mph out of the east at upper elevations and gusts up to 75 mph possible. Rain line is expected to creep up to 800-900′ tomorrow afternoon.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | 30 | 0 | 0 | 94 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 30 | 0 | 0 | 41 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 32 | 0 | 0 | 98 |
Bear Valley – Portage (132′) | 36 | 0 | 0 | – |
Grouse Ck (700′) | 34 | 0 | 0 | 62 |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | 23 | ENE | 4 | 28 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 27 | SE | 4 | 16 |
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
10/27/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan | Michael Kerst |
10/21/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Road Observation | Trevor Clayton |
10/19/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan – Below Todds Run | Andy Moderow |
10/18/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Taylor Pass | Eli Neuffer |
10/15/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan Common | John Sykes Forecaster |
10/14/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | CNFAC Staff |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South | H Thamm |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side | Amy Holman |
05/12/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Warm up Bowl | Tony Naciuk |
05/07/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs | A S |
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