Mon, March 13, 2023 Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Mon, March 13th, 2023

Alpine

Above 2,500'

1 - Low

Treeline

1,000'-2,500'

1 - Low

Below Treeline

Below 1,000'

1 - Low

0 - No Rating

1 - Low

2 - Moderate

3 - Considerable

4 - High

5 - Extreme


Travel Advice	Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.	Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.	Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential.	Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.	Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches	Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.	Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.	Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.	Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.	Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution	Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.	Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.	Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.	Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.	Very large avalanches in many areas.

Recent Avalanches

There was widespread loose avalanche activity on solar aspects during the warm spell last week. We have not seen any avalanche activity since temperatures cooled down starting Thursday.

Avalanche Problem 1

Normal Caution

Normal Caution

Normal Caution means triggering an avalanche is unlikely but not impossible.

More info at Avalanche.org

It has been 13 days since any of the weather stations within our advisory area recorded any precipitation. Following last week’s warm spell, temperatures have dropped and the snow surface has locked up on solar aspects. Without a major weak layer of concern in the snowpack, conditions are generally stable and it is unlikely a person will be able to trigger an avalanche today. It’s important to remember that although the odds are low of triggering anything, that probability is never 0.

There may be isolated pockets of unstable snow, especially in steep, unsupported, rocky slopes in shaded aspects. If you plan on stepping out into steeper terrain today, don’t let your guard down. Be sure to only expose one person at a time to steep slopes and keep an eye on your partners as they navigate steeper terrain. As always, we still need to travel with all of our standard rescue gear (beacon, shovel, probe) in case we manage to find one of the isolated pockets where a person could still trigger an avalanche.

It is looking like a pattern change is on the horizon, with chances for precipitation picking up later in the day tomorrow. It isn’t looking like much, but hopefully we will get enough to refresh the variable surfaces we’ve been dealing with for the past few days. Be sure to stay tuned for more!

Conditions may be challenging for skiing and riding right now, but the stability is good and the views are on point!

Additional Concern

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

More info at Avalanche.org

We’ve been tracking a concerning layer of faceted snow buried about 1-2′ deep, which seems to only be a concern between Pete’s North and Johnson Pass. It has been a week since the last avalanche that failed on this layer, but it is still on our radar. Be aware of the possibility of triggering a large avalanche on this layer if you plan to get out in the southern edge of our advisory area, and adjust your terrain use accordingly.

Weather

Mon, March 13th, 2023

Yesterday: Skies started mostly clear with increasing high level clouds through the day. Winds were light and variable at around 5 mph with gusts around 15 mph. The coldest temperatures for the past 24 hours were yesterday morning, with lows in the single digits to low teens F. High temperatures got up to the upper 20’s F and there was no recorded precipitation.

Today: Skies should start of mostly cloudy this morning, clearing during the day. We may see a lingering low-level cloud through the day. Northwest winds should increase slightly, with sustained speeds around 5-10 mph and gusts of 10-15 mph. High temperatures will be in the mid teens to low 20’s F with lows in the single digits above and below 0 F. No measurable precipitation is expected today.

Tomorrow: After nearly two weeks without any recorded precipitation, it is looking like we may get a little refresh starting tomorrow afternoon. We will likely only see a trace of new snow during the day, with 2-4” overnight near Girdwood and Turnagain pass and roughly double those totals near Portage and Placer. Temperatures should get up into the upper teens to low 20’s F during the day, dropping back to the single digits to low teens F overnight. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with increasing cloud cover through the day. Winds are expected to switch back to the east but should stay light at around 5 mph. It is looking like snow may continue to trickle in for the second half of the week, but storm totals are looking pretty modest for now. Stay tuned for more!

PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

	Temp Avg (F)	Snow Depth (in)
Center Ridge (1880′)	22	64
Summit Lake (1400′)	15	37
Alyeska Mid (1700′)	22	65
Bear Valley – Portage (132′)	26	–

RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

	Temp Avg (F)	Wind Dir	Wind Avg (mph)	Wind Gust (mph)
Sunburst (3812′)	14	W	5	16
Seattle Ridge (2400′)	17	N	3	13

Observations

Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass

Date	Region	Location	Observer
04/16/24	Turnagain	Observation: Cornbiscuit	Krueger / Matthys Forecaster
04/15/24	Turnagain	Observation: Taylor Pass	John Sykes Forecaster
04/15/24	Turnagain	Observation: Seward Highway – Tern Lake to Portage	Joel Curtis
04/14/24	Turnagain	Observation: Sunburst	T. Olsen-Lund, R. Sullivan I. Adams
04/14/24	Turnagain	Observation: Turnagain Pass Snomo	K. Gallaher
04/13/24	Turnagain	Observation: Spokane Creek	Everet Megli
04/11/24	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan	John Sykes Forecaster
04/10/24	Turnagain	Avalanche: Seattle Ridge	Schauer/ Keeler Forecaster
04/10/24	Turnagain	Observation: Cornbiscuit South Face	Todd Kelsey
04/10/24	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan	N. Dumont J. Carlberg

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