Mon, March 13, 2023 Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Mon, March 13th, 2023

Alpine
Above 2,500'

Low (1)

Treeline
1,000'-2,500'

Low (1)

Below Treeline
Below 1,000'

Low (1)

Alpine Above 2,500'		Low (1)
Treeline 1,000'-2,500'		Low (1)
Below Treeline Below 1,000'		Low (1)

Danger Scale:

No Rating (0)

Low (1)

Moderate (2)

Considerable (3)

High (4)

Extreme (5)

Recent Avalanches

There was widespread loose avalanche activity on solar aspects during the warm spell last week. We have not seen any avalanche activity since temperatures cooled down starting Thursday.

Avalanche Problem 1

Normal Caution

Normal Caution

Normal Caution means triggering an avalanche is unlikely but not impossible.

More info at Avalanche.org

It has been 13 days since any of the weather stations within our advisory area recorded any precipitation. Following last week’s warm spell, temperatures have dropped and the snow surface has locked up on solar aspects. Without a major weak layer of concern in the snowpack, conditions are generally stable and it is unlikely a person will be able to trigger an avalanche today. It’s important to remember that although the odds are low of triggering anything, that probability is never 0.

There may be isolated pockets of unstable snow, especially in steep, unsupported, rocky slopes in shaded aspects. If you plan on stepping out into steeper terrain today, don’t let your guard down. Be sure to only expose one person at a time to steep slopes and keep an eye on your partners as they navigate steeper terrain. As always, we still need to travel with all of our standard rescue gear (beacon, shovel, probe) in case we manage to find one of the isolated pockets where a person could still trigger an avalanche.

It is looking like a pattern change is on the horizon, with chances for precipitation picking up later in the day tomorrow. It isn’t looking like much, but hopefully we will get enough to refresh the variable surfaces we’ve been dealing with for the past few days. Be sure to stay tuned for more!

Conditions may be challenging for skiing and riding right now, but the stability is good and the views are on point!

Additional Concern

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

More info at Avalanche.org

We’ve been tracking a concerning layer of faceted snow buried about 1-2′ deep, which seems to only be a concern between Pete’s North and Johnson Pass. It has been a week since the last avalanche that failed on this layer, but it is still on our radar. Be aware of the possibility of triggering a large avalanche on this layer if you plan to get out in the southern edge of our advisory area, and adjust your terrain use accordingly.

Weather

Mon, March 13th, 2023

Yesterday: Skies started mostly clear with increasing high level clouds through the day. Winds were light and variable at around 5 mph with gusts around 15 mph. The coldest temperatures for the past 24 hours were yesterday morning, with lows in the single digits to low teens F. High temperatures got up to the upper 20’s F and there was no recorded precipitation.

Today: Skies should start of mostly cloudy this morning, clearing during the day. We may see a lingering low-level cloud through the day. Northwest winds should increase slightly, with sustained speeds around 5-10 mph and gusts of 10-15 mph. High temperatures will be in the mid teens to low 20’s F with lows in the single digits above and below 0 F. No measurable precipitation is expected today.

Tomorrow: After nearly two weeks without any recorded precipitation, it is looking like we may get a little refresh starting tomorrow afternoon. We will likely only see a trace of new snow during the day, with 2-4” overnight near Girdwood and Turnagain pass and roughly double those totals near Portage and Placer. Temperatures should get up into the upper teens to low 20’s F during the day, dropping back to the single digits to low teens F overnight. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with increasing cloud cover through the day. Winds are expected to switch back to the east but should stay light at around 5 mph. It is looking like snow may continue to trickle in for the second half of the week, but storm totals are looking pretty modest for now. Stay tuned for more!

PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

	Temp Avg (F)	Snow Depth (in)
Center Ridge (1880′)	22	64
Summit Lake (1400′)	15	37
Alyeska Mid (1700′)	22	65
Bear Valley – Portage (132′)	26	–

RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

	Temp Avg (F)	Wind Dir	Wind Avg (mph)	Wind Gust (mph)
Sunburst (3812′)	14	W	5	16
Seattle Ridge (2400′)	17	N	3	13

Observations

Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass

Date	Region	Location	Observer
03/19/23	Turnagain	Observation: Tin Can	Paul Schauer
03/19/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan	Megan Guinn
03/18/23	Turnagain	Observation: Turnagain Pass – valley bottoms	W Wagner
03/17/23	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan	Megan Guinn & John Sykes
03/17/23	Turnagain	Observation: Eddie’s/Summit	Alex Palombo
03/16/23	Turnagain	Observation: Twin Peaks Meadows	Schauer/ Pfeiffer Forecaster
03/16/23	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan	Elias Neuffer
03/16/23	Turnagain	Avalanche/People Involved: Tincan Trees	Anonymous
03/16/23	Turnagain	Avalanche/People Involved: Tincan Common	Catherine Rocchi
03/15/23	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan	John Sykes Forecaster

Riding Areas

Updated Fri, February 10th, 2023

Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us

Area	Status	Weather & Riding Conditions
Glacier District
Johnson Pass	Open	Opened Dec 13th.
Placer River	Open	Closed Jan 5th due to lack of snow and reopened Feb 11th.
Skookum Drainage	Open	Closed Jan 5th due to lack of snow and reopened Feb 11th.
Turnagain Pass	Open	Opened Dec 13th.
Twentymile	Open	Closed Jan 5th due to lack of snow and reopened Feb 11th.
Seward District
Carter Lake	Open	Opened Dec 13th.
Lost Lake Trail	Open	Opened Dec 13th.
Primrose Trail	Open	Opened Dec 13th.
Resurrection Pass Trail	Closed	Closed to motorized use for the 2022/23 winter season per Forest Plan. Open next season.
Snug Harbor	Open	Opened Dec 13th.
South Fork Snow River Corridor	Open	Opened Dec 13th.
Summit Lake	Open	Opened Dec 13th.