Turnagain Pass
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The avalanche danger is on the rise today, and will be CONSIDERABLE above 2500′. Another round of snow combined with increasing easterly winds will make it easy to trigger a wind slab avalanche up to a foot deep. Recent snow has buried multiple weak surfaces and is not expected to be bonding well. Dry loose avalanches will be getting bigger and moving faster on sheltered slopes as the snow continues to fall. Be prepared to adopt a more conservative mindset as the avalanche danger rises today through tonight. The danger is MODERATE below 2500′.
PORTAGE/PLACER: The Placer valley is expected to be heavily favored with this round of precipitation and could see 10-12” snow during the day today, with another 8-18” by tomorrow morning. This area has been favored throughout the recent storm cycles, and avalanche conditions are expected to be dangerous on all slopes as the snow rates intensify today, with natural avalanches likely by the end of the day.
Turnagain Pass Avalanche Awareness Day – Saturday, March 23
Swing by the Turnagain motorized parking lot between noon and 4pm to grab a hotdog, practice your beacons skills (we’ll have a small park set up), chat with the forecast team, and possibly test out a demo snowmachine provided by local dealers. This is a fun day designed to connect with our excellent backcountry community!
Tue, March 12th, 2024 |
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Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
No new slab avalanches were reported yesterday. We did see continued solar-triggered natural dry loose activity in steep, rocky terrain above the valley clouds.
Debris from many natural dry loose avalanches in the Virgin Creek drainage yesterday. We watched a dry loose avalanche run right through the middle of this frame shortly after the photo was taken. 03.10.2024
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Another round of active weather is moving into the area today, and this one is looking like it will pack a little more punch than the last few days. We are expecting around 3-6″ low-density snow to fall during the day, with another 6-8″ likely tonight into tomorrow morning. Along with another round of snow, it is looking like the wind is going to start to ramp up mid-day and continue to increase tonight and tomorrow. This is going to increase the avalanche danger, with both natural and human-triggered avalanches likely on wind-loaded slopes today.
As of this morning, there is anywhere from 1-2′ of very low-density snow sitting on firm surfaces with a few weak layers mixed in the upper snowpack. Up until today, there hasn’t been a strong enough slab to make bigger avalanches a real concern, but that is about to change. Expect to find touchy wind slabs forming at upper elevations, especially below ridgelines and convex rolls, or in steep, loaded gullies. Slopes with relatively stiffer snow on the surface will be the most dangerous. Travel has been fairly straightforward for the past few days, but we need to start dialing back terrain use and adopting a more conservative mindset as the avalanche danger rises today through tonight.
Storm Slab avalanches will become likely in areas that are seeing the most intense precipitation today. It is looking like this storm will have the strongest impact on the Placer Valley, which has been favored throughout the recent storm cycles. Use extra caution in this corner of the advisory area, and be aware that you may be able to trigger avalanches even in sheltered terrain.
Dry Loose Avalanches, or sluffs, will be getting bigger, easier to trigger, and moving faster as the snow continues to trickle in. Watch for sluffing on any steep terrain today, and be on the lookout for natural dry loose activity as the weather starts to ramp up.
The next round of snow is on the way. Graphic courtesy of NWS Anchorage, 03.11.2024
For the past week we have been slowly adding more and more snow on top of the weak interface that was buried on March 5. On solar aspects there are a few sun crusts that have formed above that interface, but on many slopes there is around a foot of snow sitting on a weak layer. This layer produced some wide-propagating avalanches when it was first buried, and it may still produce large avalanches. The likelihood of this happening is increasing as we continue to add more load, and it is something we are going to be paying close attention to as the snow continues to fall today and tomorrow.
Yesterday: Snow showers tapered off early in the morning, with clouds hanging around in the valleys but clearing at higher levels for some parts of the advisory area. Winds were light and variable, staying around 5-10 mph or less. High temperatures were in the low to upper 20s F with lows in the mid to upper teens F. We received another trace to 2” snow overnight, equaling 0.1-0.15” SWE.
Today: Snow is expected to pick up again today through tomorrow, with around 3-6” expected for most of our area during the day. The Placer valley is looking to be heavily favored for this round of snow, and will likely double those totals. Easterly winds are expected to pick up mid-day, with average speeds of 15 to 30 mph and gusts of 20 to 35 mph. Temperatures are expected to remain in the mid to upper 20s today through tonight, with snow to sea level.
Tomorrow: Continued snowfall tonight and tomorrow, with 6-8” likely tonight, and another 6-8” likely tomorrow for Girdwood and Turnagain Pass, and 1-2’ likely for the Placer Valley. Winds are expected to increase overnight tonight, with average speeds of 20-35 mph and gusts of 30-50 mph. High temperatures should be in the mid 20s to low 30s F, with lows in the upper teens to low 20s F.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | 20 | 1 | 0.1 | 93 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 20 | 1 | 0.1 | 46 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 19 | 2 | 0.15 | 99 |
Bear Valley – Portage (132′) | 23 | 3 | 0.37 | – |
Grouse Ck (700′) | 25 | 1 | 0.1 | 66 |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | 16 | ENE | 6 | 22 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 17 | N | 2 | 9 |
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
10/27/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan | Michael Kerst |
10/21/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Road Observation | Trevor Clayton |
10/19/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan – Below Todds Run | Andy Moderow |
10/18/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Taylor Pass | Eli Neuffer |
10/15/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan Common | John Sykes Forecaster |
10/14/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | CNFAC Staff |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South | H Thamm |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side | Amy Holman |
05/12/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Warm up Bowl | Tony Naciuk |
05/07/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs | A S |
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