|Travel Advice||Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.||Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.||Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential.||Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.||Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.|
|Likelihood of Avalanches||Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.||Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.||Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.||Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.||Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.|
|Avalanche Size and Distribution||Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.||Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.||Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.||Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.||Very large avalanches in many areas.|
The last known avalanche activity was some small natural wind slabs triggered by the strong NW outflow winds 4 days ago.
|Signal Word||Size (D scale)||Simple Descriptor|
|Small||1||Unlikely to bury a person|
|Large||2||Can bury a person|
|Very Large||3||Can destroy a house|
|Historic||4 & 5||Can destroy part or all of a village|
Despite the cold and clear conditions over the region, a welcome warm-up occurred overnight at the higher elevations. Sunburst weather station just hit 22F as of 6am – wow – while parking lots remain in the minus single digits. If you are headed out, it will be the warmer elevations, above 2,500′, where a couple lingering avalanche concerns exist.
There is still a chance a person could trigger a older wind slab from Saturday’s NW wind event. Although folks have found these wind slabs to be generally non-reactive, we should still look out for them in higher less traveled and exposed terrain. As always, watch for the tell-tale signs of stiffer snow over softer snow and cracks that shoot out from you.
The other issue is the October facets that sit at the base of the snowpack at elevations above 3,000′. Facets can be tricky and surprise us, which is why we aren’t quite ready to forget about this layer. If an avalanche is able to be triggered, it would be the entire depth of the snowpack, around 2-4′ deep, and dangerous. We should keep a feel out for any whumpfing of course, but really, using good travel protocol and simply being suspect of the snowpack is good way for us to approach the high terrain. This means maybe waiting to get onto a steep high-consequence slope, or if choosing to do so, expose only one person at a time and have escape routes planned.
Tincan’s Hippy Bowl photographed on Sunday. The cold temperatures are ‘eating away’ and loosing the wind stiffened snow and folks are finding some decent riding conditions. 11.27.22.
Yesterday: Cold, clear and mostly calm conditions existed yesterday. Ridgetop winds were 5-10mph with gusts in the teens from the north and west. Temperatures were in the minus single digits to plus single digits across all elevations.
Today: Clear skies this morning will transition to some clouds later this afternoon. Temperatures have climbed into the low 20’sF at the higher elevations overnight, creating an impressive inversion with minus single digits in valley bottoms. Ridgetop winds are forecast to be 5-15mph from the northwest. Light snow flurries are expected tonight, adding 1-2″ of snow by tomorrow morning.
Tomorrow: Skies look to clear back out tomorrow with winds bumping up from the north. Ridgetop winds look to be in the 15-25mph range. Temperatures are slated to remain on the warmer side, in the teens to 20’sF at all elevations. Clear and dry conditions look to remain through early next week.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
|Temp Avg (F)||Snow (in)||Water (in)||Snow Depth (in)|
|Center Ridge (1880′)||5||0||0||24|
|Summit Lake (1400′)||-6||0||0||13|
|Alyeska Mid (1700′)||6||0||0||18|
|Bear Valley – Portage (132′)||-2||0||0||–|
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
|Temp Avg (F)||Wind Dir||Wind Avg (mph)||Wind Gust (mph)|
|Seattle Ridge (2400′)||10||NNE||4||9|
|11/27/23||Turnagain||Avalanche: Tincan Ridge||Schauer/ Stiassny Forecaster|
|11/26/23||Turnagain||Observation: Road report: Slide with dirt on Repeat offender||Anonymous|
|11/26/23||Turnagain||Observation: Pete’s North||Ben Sullender|
|11/25/23||Turnagain||Observation: Tincan trees||John Sykes Forecaster|
|11/21/23||Observation: Spokane Creek||John Sykes Forecaster|
|11/19/23||Turnagain||Observation: Magnum – PMS Bowl||Schauer/ Cullen/ Jonas Forecaster|
|11/19/23||Other Regions||Observation: Sunnyside/Penguin||Jose Ramos-Leon|
|11/19/23||Turnagain||Observation: Eddies||Andy Moderow|