Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Two days of strong Northwest winds 20-40mph blew most of the loose snow either into the atmosphere, eroded old tracks, or packed it into hard wind slabs and wind crusts. Dozens of small wind slabs were triggered naturally during this event, and several human triggered wind slabs were observed including one yesterday in Lynx Creek. Today triggering an isolated wind slab will be possible in very steep terrain. Smooth hard supportable snow on steep convex and unsupported features will be the most suspect. Wind slabs could be small and shallow or larger if they step down to older weak snow. More on this below. Also keep in mind the Northwest wind direction creates unusual wind loading patterns opposite our normal Easterly storm track direction. Aspects that are typically more shallow and scoured may be more loaded than usual.

CORNICES: Cornices are large in some of the Alpine terrain. Winds may have added additional stress this week. Give them an extra wide berth as they often break farther back than expected. 

Wind eroded tracks along Seattle Ridge yesterday are a good example of how strong wind over the last few days have moved a lot of snow. 

Strong Northwest winds over the last two days were a good test of the snowpack. Summit Lake proved to be the most active, which isn’t a surprise due to an overall thinner and weaker snowpack. Dozens of small natural wind slab avalanches occurred in steep channeled terrain, and some stepped down to older layers producing larger avalanches. Most of this activity occurred on East facing aspects of Fresno Ridge to Gil Patrick and further South to the Sterling Wye. In Turnagain Pass very little avalanche activity was observed other than a few wind slabs in steep terrain and nothing larger that we know of.

What about the MLK buried surface hoar we’ve been talking about for the last few weeks? Is the weight of a person or snow machine still able to trigger this widespread weak layer that sits 1-3’ below the surface? Some uncertainty does remain, but it is becoming more and more unlikely with time. We know buried surface hoar is still lurking, but it has been 10 days since an avalanche was triggered  on this layer in Turnagain. Strong winds over the last few days have added additional stress in some places and this should still be on your mind if you are out searching for soft snow. 

If you’re headed into the mountains keep in mind:

1. Wind loaded steep features, large connected and unsupported slopes are the most suspect.
2. Eastern aspects that typically harbor a weaker structure may be more loaded than usual.
3. There is more potential for triggering this problem in Summit Lake, Johnson Pass and Lynx Creek due to a generally thinner and weaker snowpack.
4. Use safe travel protocol. Expose only one person at a time (this includes paying attention to other groups in the area), watch partners, stop in safe zones and be rescue ready

Pit results yesterday on Seattle Ridge showed the MLK (Martin Luther King Day) buried surface hoar layer present but unreactive.

Several pockets of wind slab on the flank of two East facing gullies of Summit Peak stepped down into older snow closer to the gut.

Glide cracks are on the move and becoming more active this week. Two glides have released this week, one near the Hope Wye and another in Girdwood Valley. Several glide cracks threaten popular routes on the South facing slopes of Lipps and Magnum. There is also a new glide crack opening on Seattle Ridge on Repeat Offender in a zone that is commonly high-marked. Glide cracks are unpredictable, not associated with human triggers, and can release without warning at any time. The best way to manage this problem is to identify their location and avoid traveling on slopes directly below glide cracks.

New glide crack opening up on Seattle Ridge just South of the up-track.