Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast
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The avalanche danger is MODERATE at all elevations and expected to rise to CONSIDERABLE tomorrow. New snow and wind is on the way and may create fresh wind slabs, up to 6-10″ thick, by sunset in areas seeing 4-6″ of new snow. New snow sluffing off steep slopes should also be expected. Additionally, triggering a larger slab avalanche 1-3′ thick that breaks in weak snow deeper in the snowpack remains unlikely, but is not out of the question. Give cornices a wide berth, and avoid travel under glide cracks.
SUMMIT LAKE / COOPER LANDING: Central and Western Kenai mountains may see snow amounts from 4-8″ today. This area has a very poor snowpack with multiple weak layers. New snow avalanches are a concern, but triggering a slab 1-3′ thick, breaking deeper in the snowpack is a much more dangerous problem. Watch for whumpfing, shooting cracks and recent avalanches.
SEWARD/ LOST LAKE: Higher snowfall amounts are expected in the Seward zone, possibly over a foot today. Heads up that storm snow avalanches will be likely once snow accumulates to over 6″.
BYRON GLACIER TRAIL Hikers: Natural avalanches may send debris to valley floors by Sunday. Avoid being in the runout paths. Also, the popular snow cave is very dangerous and unstable. See this video from Valentines Day!
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory from Girdwood to Seward beginning at 0800 this morning. After 11 days with nearly no new snow and strong northwest outflow winds wreaking havoc on Wednesday, snowfall this weekend is a welcomed relief. The current snow surface is less than ideal, described in yesterday’s reports as “scoured, boney, pretty terrible, difficult to find any soft snow”, I’ll stop there. Snowfall should begin midday with 1-4″ falling by sunset, with more possible in favored areas such as Portage Valley. An additional 4-8″ is expected overnight. Snow should make it to sea level with the cool temperatures in place.
Today is a ‘watch for changing weather’ day. Avalanche danger will increase in sync with new snowfall and wind. The hard existing snow surface will make inital bonding with the new snow poor. Once snow piles up to a good 4-6″ we can expect easily triggered sluffs on steep slopes and shallow wind slabs along ridgelines. With lower snow amounts today, fresh wind slabs should be in the 6-10″ range, relatively small. As temperatures climb and when new snow accumulates to over 6″, we could start seeing storm slabs in areas out of the wind. This issue is more likely to be seen overnight and into Sunday.
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Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Roughly 1-3′ below the old hard wind affected surface sits a layer of buried surface hoar and in some areas facets. The layer of buried surface hoar was responsible for several large avalanches triggered a couple weeks ago and has slowly become unreactive. New snow this weekend and more through the week will be adding a load, and hence additional stress, onto these buried weak layers. Our concern is, will these layers become reactive again? In areas near Summit Lake the potential is higher for triggering a large slab breaking in old snow due to a weaker snowpack. As we move forward with new snow and stoke, we can’t forget there are some hidden dragons, especially in thin snowpack zones.
If you’re headed into the mountains and visibility is good enough for travel above treeline, keep in mind:
Alaska Avalanche School’s Level 2 snowmachine course investigates the currently unreactive layer of buried surface hoar in God’s Country of Seattle Ridge. The photo on the right is also from the course and illustrates the hard wind affected surface that this weekend’s new snow will be falling on (don’t be fooled, those tracks are raised anit-tracks!).
Glide cracks are still on the move. Two glide cracks released into avalanches this week, one near the Hope Wye and another in Girdwood Valley. Several cracks threaten popular routes on the South facing slopes of Lipps and Magnum. There is also a new glide crack opening on Seattle Ridge on Repeat Offender. Glide cracks are unpredictable, not associated with human triggers, and can release without warning at any time. The best way to manage this problem is to avoid traveling on slopes directly below glide cracks.
Big thanks to Tom Enzi for capturing this photo of a large glide crack on SW facing Magnum ridge yesterday (2/15). This crack has been slowly opening for several weeks.
Yesterday: Mostly clear skies with light and variable ridgetop winds. Temperatures remained generally in the 5-15F range at all elevations for the day. While cold air has remained at the lower elevations, temperatures have climbed overnight above treeline from the single digits to 20F.
Today: Clouds have moved in, temperatures continue to rise and snowfall – to sea level – is expected to begin mid-day. Between 1 to 4” of snow is expected today with an additional 4 to 8″ tonight. Ridgetop winds have turned easterly this morning and expected to pick up to the 30-40’s mph from the east with stronger gusts through today and into tomorrow. Temperatures look to hover in the 20’sF at all elevations.
Tomorrow: Snowfall and wind will continue through tomorrow. Another 2-4″ is expected through the day before tapering off Sunday night. Temperatures will continue a slow rise and we could see a rain/snow mix at sea level.
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
Center Ridge (1880′) | 15 | 0 | 0 | 56 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 6 | 0 | 0 | 24 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 14 | 0 | 0 | 50 |
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
Sunburst (3812′) | 13 | variable | 6 | 23 (east) |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 12 | variable | 5 | 17 (east) |
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
05/22/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | Nick D'Alessio |
05/12/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan, Sunburst, Magnum, Cornbiscuit | Heather Thamm |
05/07/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan – Bear Tracks | CNFAIC Staff |
05/05/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Seattle Ridge | AS/ WW Forecaster |
05/02/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Cornbiscuit | Schauer/ Sturgess Forecaster |
05/02/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Seward Hwy Turnagain Pass | Joel Curtis |
04/30/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Magnum | Ayla, Kit Crosby, Barton |
04/29/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan | John Sykes |
04/28/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Taylor Pass/Pastoral | Schauer/ Creighton Forecaster |
04/28/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | Andy Moderow |
Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us
Area | Status | Weather & Riding Conditions |
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Glacier District |
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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.