Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast RSS

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ARCHIVED FORECAST - All forecasts expire after 24 hours from the posting date/time.
Issued
Thu, April 13th, 2017 - 7:00AM
Expires
Fri, April 14th, 2017 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
Heather Thamm
The Bottom Line

The overall avalanche danger is  MODERATE  at all elevations due to a handful of avalanche concerns and springtime condtions. Triggering a large and dangerous deep slab avalanche (3-6′ deep) on slopes over 35 degrees remains possible, but will be hard to trigger. More potential for this problem exists on Northerly aspects above 1500′ that haven’t avalanched already. Warm spring like temperatures will also increase the potential for wet snow avalanches in the afternoon and evening. These could be wet slabs or wet loose avalanches on Southerly aspects, or on all aspects below 1,500′. Identify glide cracks and cornices and give these unpredictable features lots of space as daily warming will be making these features more unstable.  

***The danger could  rise to CONSIDERABLE, especially  in shallow snowpack zones where wet snow avalanches may occur naturally.

Hiking in Portage Valley and on summer trails around the Advisory area (including the Turnagain Arm Trail a.k.a the bike path).   Extra caution is advised during the afternoon and evening hours for trails that cross under avalanche paths. Avalanches are still possible at the higher elevations that could send debris over snow-free hiking trails.

Summit Lake:   See the  Saturday Summit Summary  HERE  and recent avalanche observations from the last few days  HERE.

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Thu, April 13th, 2017
Alpine
Above 2,500'
Moderate (2)
Avalanche risk
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
Moderate (2)
Avalanche risk
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
Moderate (2)
Avalanche risk
Alpine
Above 2,500'
Avalanche risk
Moderate (2)
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
Avalanche risk
Moderate (2)
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
Avalanche risk
Moderate (2)
Danger Scale:
No Rating (0)
Low (1)
Moderate (2)
Considerable (3)
High (4)
Extreme (5)
Avalanche Problem 1
  • Deep Persistent Slabs
    Deep Persistent Slabs
Deep Persistent Slabs
Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.
More info at Avalanche.org

There are several weak layers within our snowpack, including a layer of buried surface hoar anywhere from 2-6′ below the surface. This buried surface hoar layer was the culprit weak layer in many human triggered deep slab avalanches over last weekend in Seattle Creek. Shaded aspects (NE – NW – W) in the mid and upper elevations that haven’t avalanched already are the most suspect places for triggering a deep slab avalanche. There is also some potential on steeper solar aspects later in the day as sun heats up the slab and breaks down the surface crust. (More on this in Secondary Concern.) 

This problem is one of low probability but high consequence as these are large and potentially unsurvivable slides. As the snowpack continues to adjust, triggering will become more stubborn and less likely with time, but the hazard remains. Keep these point in mind:  

  • It will take someone hitting a ‘thin spot’ in the slab, or a large trigger such as a snowmachine and/or groups of people.
  • These slides can be triggered remotely, for example, from a ridge or bench on the top/side or below. 
  • There may be no signs of instability before the slope shatters 
  • Several tracks may be on a slope before it releases
  • Stability tests may not produce any noteable results

If wishing not to roll the dice on this deep slab possibility, one can always stick to slopes under 35 degrees or go to places that have already avalanched.

A snowmachine triggered deep slab that occured on Juniors in Seattle Creek on Saturday. More details about the incident can be found HERE and snowpack details HERE

 

 A recent slab avalanche on a Northeast aspect of the Headwall in Seattle Creek. The trigger is unknown, but apears to be pretty fresh.  

Avalanche Problem 2
  • Wet Loose
    Wet Loose
Wet Loose
Wet Loose avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
More info at Avalanche.org

Springtime melt-freeze cycle (Southerly aspects): We are moving into what we call a melt-freeze cycle. Low avalanche danger in the morning, Moderate to Considerable danger in the afternoon. When the snowpack is frozen in the morning from nighttime cooling, it’s stable. During the course of the day the pack warms and becomes unsupportable, this is when the avalanche danger rises. Temperatures today could reach the 50’sF in the parking lots and near 40F at ridgetops. This is when Southerly aspects and the lower elevation snowpack will become wet and unsupportable to snowmachines, skis or boots. When the pack gets this loose and punchy it’s time to head to a different aspect as slopes steep enough to slide will be suspect for wet snow avalanches. Human triggered wet loose slides and wet slabs are a possibility later in the day and are nothing to mess with. Keep a close eye on Southerly slopes, especially near rocks and thinner snow zones, and avoid being in the runtout of these areas.

Wet loose avalanches that occured two nights ago on a South aspect of Penguin ridge.This is a good example of a slope with lots of rocks and thin snow coverage that can heat up and loose strength easily with such warm day time tempertures. 

Additional Concern
  • Glide Avalanches
    Glide Avalanches
Glide Avalanches
Glide Avalanches are the release of the entire snow cover as a result of gliding over the ground. Glide avalanches can be composed of wet, moist, or almost entirely dry snow. They typically occur in very specific paths, where the slope is steep enough and the ground surface is relatively smooth. They are often proceeded by full depth cracks (glide cracks), though the time between the appearance of a crack and an avalanche can vary between seconds and months. Glide avalanches are unlikely to be triggered by a person, are nearly impossible to forecast, and thus pose a hazard that is extremely difficult to manage.
More info at Avalanche.org

Glide Avalanches: Yesterday a glide avalanche occurred on the South face of Eddies just before 8pm and was captured on the DOT web cam. There are a handful of glide cracks in specific places like the South face of Eddies, Lynx Creek and even near the up-track along Seattle Ridge. Warm temperatures and prolonged solar energy, expect more of these cracks to release without warming in the next few day. Identify existing cracks and avoid travel in their runout zone.

CORNICES: Daytime warming and solar heating will be adding stress to Cornices as well. Avoid travel on or underneath these backcountry bombs and remember that they often break further back on a ridge than expected. Triggering a cornice has the potential to initiate a large avalanche on the slope below.

This glide release occured yesterday evening on a South aspect of Eddies just before 8pm. Captured on DOT web cam.

 

 

Weather
Thu, April 13th, 2017

Yesterday skies were clear and sunny. Temperatures in valley bottom climbed into the low 50F’s and ridge tops reached nearly 40F. Winds were calm becoming light 5-10mph from the West in the evening. Overnight clear skies remained and temperatures dipped down into the low 30F’s.  

Expect similar weather today. Day time temps could reach the mid 50F’s this afternoon in the lower elevations and mid 40F’s in the upper. Temperatures overnight are expected to reach the low 30F’s.   Ridge top winds from the N should range from 5-15mph. No precip is in the forecast.  

Clear skies and warm temperatures are expected through Saturday morning. There remains much uncertainty through the weekend, but there is talk of cloud cover and a possibility of snow/rain showers.

*Some temperature data is missing, making this average not as accurate.

PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

  Temp Avg (F) Snow (in) Water (in) Snow Depth (in)
Center Ridge (1880′) 39   0   0   70  
Summit Lake (1400′) 35   0    0 24  
Alyeska Mid (1700′)  38 0   0   64  

RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

  Temp Avg (F) Wind Dir Wind Avg (mph) Wind Gust (mph)
Sunburst (3812′) 33   W   5   12  
Seattle Ridge (2400′) *36   var.   3   11  
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Riding Areas
Updated Mon, December 02nd, 2019

Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us

Area Status Weather & Riding Conditions
Glacier District
Johnson Pass
Closed
Closed.
Placer River
Closed
Closed.
Skookum Drainage
Closed
Closed.
Turnagain Pass
Closed
Closed.
Twentymile
Closed
Closed.
Seward District
Carter Lake
Closed
Closed.
Lost Lake Trail
Closed
Closed.
Primrose Trail
Closed
Closed.
Resurrection Pass Trail
Closed
Closed. Will be open for the 2019/20 season pending adequate snow cover.
Snug Harbor
Closed
Closed.
South Fork Snow River Corridor
Closed
Closed.
Summit Lake
Closed
Closed.

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