Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Ridgetop winds should again be moderate to strong – in the 15-25mph range from the Northwest. This is the same forecast we have seen over the last 3 days and Turnagain pass has either remained protected or the snow has blown away.  There are areas that have been partially spared by the brunt of the Northwest winds this week along the East(non-motorized) side of the road of Turnagain Pass. Folks have been able to find soft snow and venture further into the mountains without incident. That said, there are areas that have not escaped the major winds. A report yesterday confirmed Seattle Ridge to be scoured and hard pack, and most of the loose snow has blown away. Triggering a small hard wind slab is not out of the question in steep terrain in either area. Although these wind slabs will be tough to trigger, high consequence terrain (steep rocky area and and under a loaded convexity) will be the places that a wind slab could take you for a ride. Intenitfy these features and be aware of the consequences of the terrain you are riding in. 

***Although its unlikely today should you see blowing snow along ridge tops or experience a shooting crack these will be signs that wind slabs could be tender.

Smooth or pillowed surfaces, especally under a convexity or in steep rocky terrain are places to find a wind slab.

A good example of a corniced ridge that if triggered could take you for an undireable ride. Give corniced ridges lots of space! Goldpan – South face.

In Turnagain Pass where the snowpack has become old and tired, good stability has been found within the deeper layers of the snowpack including as far South as Lipps. Slope testers have been stepping into steeper terrain this week without incident both in Turnagain Pass and in many areas of the Girdwood Valley. There have been no reports of avalanche activity within the older layers of the snowpack in Turnagain Pass for several weeks.   

However, the wind event that started last Monday night (2/27) did cause a natural avalanche cycle in Lynx Creek/Johnson Pass zone with slabs ranging in size from 1-2’ deep with wide propagation, likely failing on the February 9^th buried surface hoar. The other area in question is the Crow Pass zone, where little is known about how this shallow snowpack has faired after a week of strong winds. Until proven innocent these periphery zones remain suspect for triggering a deeper more dangerous avalanche. The layers of concern in these areas are the buried surface hoar 1-3′ deep and facets in the mid and base of the snowpack.