Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast RSS

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ARCHIVED FORECAST - All forecasts expire after 24 hours from the posting date/time.
Issued
Wed, November 9th, 2022 - 7:00AM
Expires
Thu, November 10th, 2022 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
CNFAIC Staff
Conditions Summary

Active weather has returned to the Turnagain area. A sustained southerly flow pattern has brought warm temperatures, strong winds and precipitation to our zone. Ridgetop winds have been blowing out of the east at 15-30 mph with gusts of 40-50 mph since yesterday evening. Weather stations are showing 0.5″ of water at Turnagain Pass and around 1″ in Girdwood in the past 48 hours. The snow line is around 500′ right now, but is expected to rise up to around 1500′ before precipitation passes this evening. There is some uncertainty with how much more snow and rain we will see before this system passes, with best estimates anywhere from 4-8″ near Girdwood, 4-12″ at Turnagain Pass, and  potentially 1-2′ at upper elevations near Portage before all is said and done.

While it may be unclear just how much more snow we will get out of this system, it is safe to say we can expect to see those strong winds building reactive wind slabs, making it likely a person can trigger an avalanche. In addition to the concerns with the new snow, it will be important to remember we have a potential problem layer at the ground. This weak snow was responsible for multiple large avalanches after the last round of snow (more details and photos here, here, and here). This new round of wind and precipitation will be another test of that layer. With rain falling on dry snow up to 1500′, we can also expect to see some wet loose activity in the lower elevations.

It is early in the season and the coverage is still thin. We have limited info on the snowpack, which makes uncertainty high. As active weather continues today, we can expect avalanches to become more likely. Keep all of these things in mind if you are getting out in the next few days, and be on the lookout for clear signs of unstable snow like shooting cracks, collapsing, and fresh avalanche activity. If you get out and see anything, we really appreciate it when you take a minute to submit an observation.

Looking ahead, the next system will follow closely behind this one, with chances for precipitation increasing starting Friday morning. Expect avalanche conditions to become more dangerous with each round of snow and wind. We will issue our next conditions update this Saturday, November 12. We plan on posting 2-3 updates per week until we start issuing daily advisories on Wedneday, November 23. 

Visibility was limited yesterday on Seattle Ridge, but we can see it’s blowing and snowing up there. Photo from Seattle Ridge webcams, 11.08.2022.

Predicted snow totals through Thursday morning. Source: NWS Anchorage. 11.09.2022

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Wed, November 9th, 2022
Observations
Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass
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Riding Areas
Updated Sun, November 27th, 2022

Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us

Area Status Weather & Riding Conditions
Glacier District
Johnson Pass
Closed
Scheduled opening Dec 1st per Forest Plan, contingent upon adequate snow depth for forest resource protection.
Placer River
Closed
Scheduled opening Dec 1st per Forest Plan, contingent upon adequate snow depth for forest resource protection.
Skookum Drainage
Closed
Scheduled opening Dec 1st per Forest Plan, contingent upon adequate snow depth for forest resource protection.
Turnagain Pass
Closed
The Forest has issued a closure order for Turnagain Pass due to inadequate snow cover for resource protection. Conditions will be monitored daily. Between 16-20” of snow exists at the parking lot. The scheduled opening would have been the Wednesday before Thanksgiving per Forest Plan.
Twentymile
Closed
Scheduled opening Dec 1st per Forest Plan, contingent upon adequate snow depth for forest resource protection.
Seward District
Carter Lake
Closed
Scheduled opening Dec 1st per Forest Plan, contingent upon adequate snow depth for forest resource protection.
Lost Lake Trail
Closed
Scheduled opening Dec 1st per Forest Plan, contingent upon adequate snow depth for forest resource protection.
Primrose Trail
Closed
Scheduled opening Dec 1st per Forest Plan, contingent upon adequate snow depth for forest resource protection.
Resurrection Pass Trail
Closed
Closed to motorized use for the 2022/23 winter season per Forest Plan. Open next season.
Snug Harbor
Closed
Scheduled opening Dec 1st per Forest Plan, contingent upon adequate snow depth for forest resource protection.
South Fork Snow River Corridor
Closed
Scheduled opening Dec 1st per Forest Plan, contingent upon adequate snow depth for forest resource protection.
Summit Lake
Closed
Scheduled opening Dec 1st per Forest Plan, contingent upon adequate snow depth for forest resource protection.

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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.