Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast RSS

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ARCHIVED FORECAST - All forecasts expire after 24 hours from the posting date/time.
Issued
Sat, November 12th, 2022 - 7:00AM
Expires
Sun, November 13th, 2022 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
CNFAIC Staff
Conditions Summary

Weekend Update: A warm storm is impacting our forecast area with strong winds at upper elevations, averaging 30-45 mph with gusts to 70 mph overnight, and rain up to 1500′. Unfortunately the snow line is expected to remain at 1500 – 2200′ throughout the weekend. Storm totals from Friday Nov 11th at 6am to Saturday Nov 12th at 6am throughout the forecast area:

  • Turnagain Pass: 0.3″ of water
  • Girdwood: 1.1″ of water
  • Portage: 3″ of water

Another 0.75 – 1.5″ of water is forecast for Saturday and Sunday in Turnagain Pass and Girdwood. Portage and more coastal areas could see an additional 1 – 3″ of water over the weekend. Keep in mind these are water totals and you can roughly translate 1″ of water to a similar load on the snowpack as 12″ of average density snow. This amounts to a significant load on the snowpack!

If you decide to brave the stormy weather be aware that a layer of faceted snow about 5-10 cm thick on the ground has been producing fairly large and well connected avalanches (see ob here). On Tincan yesterday we were surprised at how reactive this layer was in our snowpit tests. As this storm adds more load to the snowpack it is possible that we could see large natural or human triggered avalanches releasing on this layer.

The strong winds association with the storm will also make wind slabs likely at higher elevations where the snow remains dry and can be easily transported. Keep an eye out for shooting cracks on wind loaded features in the upper treeline and alpine elevations as a sign of reactive wind slabs.

After this storm passes the weather is forecast to be less active during the week. We plan to issue another update middle of next week to report on the developing conditions. Daily avalanche forecasts are scheduled to begin Thanksgiving week.

Snowpack structure at treeline on Tincan. Photo 11.11.22

Snowfall totals for Saturday Nov 12th. Graphic courtesy of NWS Anchorage 11.12.22

Snowfall totals for Sunday Nov 13th. Graphic courtesy of NWS Anchorage 11.12.22

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Sat, November 12th, 2022
Weather
Sat, November 12th, 2022

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PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

Temp Avg (F) Snow (in) Water (in) Snow Depth (in)
Center Ridge (1880′)
Summit Lake (1400′)
Alyeska Mid (1700′)
Bear Valley (132′)

RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

Temp Avg (F) Wind Dir Wind Avg (mph) Wind Gust (mph)
Sunburst (3812′)
Seattle Ridge (2400′)
Observations
Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass
Date Region Location
11/28/22 Turnagain Observation: Pastoral
11/27/22 Turnagain Avalanche: Tincan
11/26/22 Turnagain Observation: Eddies
11/26/22 Turnagain Observation: Eddies
11/26/22 Turnagain Observation: Lipps
11/25/22 Turnagain Observation: Sunburst
11/25/22 Turnagain Observation: Sunnyside / Seattle Ridge
11/25/22 Turnagain Observation: Sunburst
11/25/22 Turnagain Observation: Tincan Trees
11/25/22 Turnagain Observation: Tincan
Riding Areas
Updated Sun, November 27th, 2022

Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us

Area Status Weather & Riding Conditions
Glacier District
Johnson Pass
Closed
Scheduled opening Dec 1st per Forest Plan, contingent upon adequate snow depth for forest resource protection.
Placer River
Closed
Scheduled opening Dec 1st per Forest Plan, contingent upon adequate snow depth for forest resource protection.
Skookum Drainage
Closed
Scheduled opening Dec 1st per Forest Plan, contingent upon adequate snow depth for forest resource protection.
Turnagain Pass
Closed
The Forest has issued a closure order for Turnagain Pass due to inadequate snow cover for resource protection. Conditions will be monitored daily. Between 16-20” of snow exists at the parking lot. The scheduled opening would have been the Wednesday before Thanksgiving per Forest Plan.
Twentymile
Closed
Scheduled opening Dec 1st per Forest Plan, contingent upon adequate snow depth for forest resource protection.
Seward District
Carter Lake
Closed
Scheduled opening Dec 1st per Forest Plan, contingent upon adequate snow depth for forest resource protection.
Lost Lake Trail
Closed
Scheduled opening Dec 1st per Forest Plan, contingent upon adequate snow depth for forest resource protection.
Primrose Trail
Closed
Scheduled opening Dec 1st per Forest Plan, contingent upon adequate snow depth for forest resource protection.
Resurrection Pass Trail
Closed
Closed to motorized use for the 2022/23 winter season per Forest Plan. Open next season.
Snug Harbor
Closed
Scheduled opening Dec 1st per Forest Plan, contingent upon adequate snow depth for forest resource protection.
South Fork Snow River Corridor
Closed
Scheduled opening Dec 1st per Forest Plan, contingent upon adequate snow depth for forest resource protection.
Summit Lake
Closed
Scheduled opening Dec 1st per Forest Plan, contingent upon adequate snow depth for forest resource protection.

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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.