Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast
|
![]() ![]() |
The avalanche danger is MODERATE at all elevations. Triggering a slab avalanche 1-3′ deep is possible on slopes 35° and steeper on buried layers of weak snow. With NW winds in the forecast today, watch for wind transport and fresh wind slabs developing at upper elevations. Assess the snowpack as you travel, identify areas of concern and evaluate terrain consequences. Avoid travel under glide cracks.
SUMMIT LAKE/SNUG/LOST LAKE/SEWARD: Stronger NW winds are forecast for these zones and natural wind slab avalanches are possible. Additionally, slabs may step down into buried weak layers and create a larger avalanche.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
After a little new snow and a couple days of temperatures climbing above freezing, we are seeing a cooling trend this morning. The snow that became moist or wet yesterday should have a delightful crust today… Cooler temperatures, cloudy skies and WNW winds should keep the crust locked up and prevent any wet loose avalanches or warming issues in the snowpack. Our main avalanche concern continues to be persistent slabs due to layers of weak snow buried in the top 1-3′ of the snowpack. The natural avalanches in Summit Lake on Monday likely failed on these buried weak layers, as well as the most recent human triggered avalanches last week. These layers are still easy to find in snow pits and observers report variable results with snowpack tests. Some test results are pointing towards the potential for avalanches to be initiated on these layers. We have not been seeing widespread avalanches but we know these weak layers exist in the snowpack across the forecast area and south from Summit Lake to Seward. With wind loading today, triggering a wind slab avalanche (see Problem 2) could add stress to the layers below and result in a larger avalanche. Previously wind loaded slopes also harbor deeper slabs over the weak layers. Be on the lookout for areas that were previously wind loaded and those with any new wind loading. As always, use good travel protocol, and think about terrain consequences. This type of avalanche issue might allow you to get well out on the slope before the avalanche releases and it might not be the first person that triggers the avalanche.
Despite the weather forecast, because it is springtime and due the reality that we have dynamic weather, pay attention to cloud cover, temperature, and surface conditions. If the sun pokes out and/or temperatures shoot above freezing and you see signs of surface snow warming, move to shadier aspects/drier snow.
It was easy to see the line of buried surface hoar in a snow pit on Eddies yesterday, 3.30.21, at 2000′ on a N aspect. This weak layer was propagating in Extended Column Tests.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
With moderate WNW winds in the forecast today and soft snow available for transport, watch for new small wind slabs to develop in the 6-8″ range. These are most likely to be found in the higher terrain along ridgelines. Watch for active wind loading and avoid any slope or cross-loaded gully with fresh wind deposited snow. Shooting cracks are a good indicator as well areas with stiffer snow over softer snow. As mentioned above, wind loading could overload buried weak layers and make it easier to trigger a larger avalanche. As we have said before, this wind flow direction is tricky for Turnagain Pass. It can funnel through the Pass from the south and load north aspects on the non-motorized side, while at the same time load the SE face of Seattle Ridge. It can also split around the Pass and not affect much of the terrain in the heart of Turnagain at all. This wind direction often has a greater impact near Crow Pass, through Portage, and south of the forecast area from Summit Lake to Seward.
Loose snow avalanches: Steep slopes are that sheltered from the wind have loose snow sitting on top of firm surfaces. It will be easy to trigger dry loose avalanches (sluffs) in that terrain today, and they can pick up enough volume and speed to carry a person. While it is unlikely they will be big enough to bury you, they can be dangerous if they drag you into terrain traps like cliffs, trees, rocks, or gullies.
Yesterday: Partly cloudy skies with brief snow showers around noon. Light winds and temperatures in the high 20°Fs to mid 30°Fs. Increasing clouds overnight with light winds and temperatures in the teens to mid 20°Fs.
Today: Mostly cloudy skies with a chance of snow. Winds will be WNW 5-15 mph with gusts into the 20s. Temperatures will be in the teens to high 20°Fs. Overnight skies remain cloudy with a chance of snow. Winds will continue from the WNW 5-15 mph with gusts into the 20s and temperatures will be in the teens and single digits.
Tomorrow: Cloudy skies to start the day, gradually becoming mostly sunny. Northwest winds 15-20 mph with gusts into the 30s and temperatures in the 20°Fs.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | 27 | 0 | 0 | 112 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 29 | 0 | 0 | 50 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 28 | 0 | 0 | 118 |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | 19 | W | 5 | 25 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 25 | E-W* | 4 | 11 |
*Wind shift at 5 pm yesterday.
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
05/22/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | Nick D'Alessio |
05/12/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan, Sunburst, Magnum, Cornbiscuit | Heather Thamm |
05/07/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan – Bear Tracks | CNFAIC Staff |
05/05/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Seattle Ridge | AS/ WW Forecaster |
05/02/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Cornbiscuit | Schauer/ Sturgess Forecaster |
05/02/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Seward Hwy Turnagain Pass | Joel Curtis |
04/30/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Magnum | Ayla, Kit Crosby, Barton |
04/29/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan | John Sykes |
04/28/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Taylor Pass/Pastoral | Schauer/ Creighton Forecaster |
04/28/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | Andy Moderow |
Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us
Area | Status | Weather & Riding Conditions |
---|---|---|
Glacier District |
Subscribe to Turnagain Pass
Avalanche Forecast by Email
This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.