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ARCHIVED FORECAST - All forecasts expire after 24 hours from the posting date/time.
Issued
Sun, January 6th, 2019 - 7:00AM
Expires
Mon, January 7th, 2019 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
Wendy Wagner
The Bottom Line

The avalanche danger remains  MODERATE  above 1,000′. Finding and triggering a slab avalanche 2-3′ thick is becoming less likely but still possible; most suspect areas are higher elevations that have seen prior wind effect. Second, glide cracks (brown cracks in the snow) are opening and avalanching during this cold snap. This is the time to avoid being under cracks. And as always, give cornices a wide berth, some may be teetering on the edge of breaking.

SUMMIT LAKE / JOHNSON PASS / LYNX DRAINAGE:  South of Turnagain Pass, keep in mind multiple buried weak layers exist in the middle and base of the snowpack. More potential for triggering a large slab avalanches exists in this zone.  

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Sun, January 6th, 2019
Alpine
Above 2,500'
Moderate (2)
Avalanche risk
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
Moderate (2)
Avalanche risk
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
Low (1)
Avalanche risk
Alpine
Above 2,500'
Avalanche risk
Moderate (2)
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
Avalanche risk
Moderate (2)
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
Avalanche risk
Low (1)
Danger Scale:
No Rating (0)
Low (1)
Moderate (2)
Considerable (3)
High (4)
Extreme (5)
Avalanche Problem 1
  • Persistent Slabs
    Persistent Slabs
  • Almost Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
    Likelihood
  • Historic
    Very Large
    Large
    Small
    Size
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Likelihood of Avalanches
This graphic depicts how likely you are to trigger avalanches or encounter natural avalanches while traveling on avalanche prone slopes. Unlikely means that few avalanches could be triggered in avalanche terrain and natural avalanches are not expected. The chance of triggering or observing avalanches increases as we move up the scale. Certain means that humans will be able to trigger avalanches on many slopes, and natural avalanches should be expected.

Size of Avalanches
This graphic depicts the potential size and destructive force of expected avalanches. Small avalanches are not large enough to bury humans and are relatively harmless unless they carry people over cliffs or through trees or rocks. Moving up the scale, avalanches become large enough to bury, injure, or kill people, large enough to bury or destroy vehicles and break a few trees, and large enough to destroy railway cars, buildings, or a substantial amount of forest. Historic avalanches are massive events capable of destroying villages and gouging or altering the landscape.
More info at Avalanche.org

As time passes and more information is gathered, we are finding that being able to trigger a slab avalanche breaking 2-3′ deep is becoming less and less likely. Although this is a good trend, we can’t write this avalanche problem off just yet. The mountains have a way of humbling us and therefore, it will be prudent to keep in mind a buried layer of surface hoar may sit 2-3′ below the surface. Higher elevation zones that saw prior wind effect are most concerning for finding one of these isolated pockets.

This can be a spooky situation. We can stick to lower angle slopes or if we’re bent on the steep terrain, consider the consequences if part or all of the slope does release. Is there a terrain trap under us? Watch our partners and expose one person at a time. Again, the one known avalanche in this layer was on Wednesday, Jan. 2nd on Seattle Ridge, which was the day after the end of the New Year’s storms. Otherwise, snowpack tests and pits have shown the layer to be either not present or generally unreactive. 

 

              

The CNFAIC crew out in the God’s County area on the northern end of Seattle Ridge assessing the spatial variability in the Christmas buried surface hoar. Two pits at 1,500′ showed reactivity and propagation propensity, but many others did not. 

South of Turnagain – Lynx Creek/Johnson Pass/Summit Lake zone:  A poor snowpack structure exists in these areas. The buried surface hoar mentioned above exists as well as facet/crust combinations in the bottom of the snowpack. The New Year’s storm overloaded a variety of these weak layers as can be seen in photos from the avalanche activity throughout Summit LakeIf you’re headed this way, the pack becomes more complex – evaluate terrain exposure and the snowpack as you travel. Remember ‘whumpfing’ and recent avalanches are obvious clues of instability.

Avalanche Problem 2
  • Glide Avalanches
    Glide Avalanches
  • Almost Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
    Likelihood
  • Historic
    Very Large
    Large
    Small
    Size
Glide Avalanches
Glide Avalanches are the release of the entire snow cover as a result of gliding over the ground. Glide avalanches can be composed of wet, moist, or almost entirely dry snow. They typically occur in very specific paths, where the slope is steep enough and the ground surface is relatively smooth. They are often proceeded by full depth cracks (glide cracks), though the time between the appearance of a crack and an avalanche can vary between seconds and months. Glide avalanches are unlikely to be triggered by a person, are nearly impossible to forecast, and thus pose a hazard that is extremely difficult to manage.

Likelihood of Avalanches
This graphic depicts how likely you are to trigger avalanches or encounter natural avalanches while traveling on avalanche prone slopes. Unlikely means that few avalanches could be triggered in avalanche terrain and natural avalanches are not expected. The chance of triggering or observing avalanches increases as we move up the scale. Certain means that humans will be able to trigger avalanches on many slopes, and natural avalanches should be expected.

Size of Avalanches
This graphic depicts the potential size and destructive force of expected avalanches. Small avalanches are not large enough to bury humans and are relatively harmless unless they carry people over cliffs or through trees or rocks. Moving up the scale, avalanches become large enough to bury, injure, or kill people, large enough to bury or destroy vehicles and break a few trees, and large enough to destroy railway cars, buildings, or a substantial amount of forest. Historic avalanches are massive events capable of destroying villages and gouging or altering the landscape.
More info at Avalanche.org

The brown cracks easy to see in the Turnagain area are glide cracks. Take a good look at the photos below. The whole snowpack is slowly sliding down the mountainsides and can release into an avalanche at anytime. This is a completely unpredictable situation and one where a human does not play a role. Glide cracks are releasing now. Please don’t be caught in the wrong place at the wrong time and limit/avoid exposure under any crack you see. The most recent glide avalanche we know of was on the south face of Eddies where the glide debris covered fresh ski tracks

Cracks we know about are in all the hot spots on Turnagain: Lipps, Tincan, Eddies, Lynx Creek, Johnson Pass, Sunburst, Corn Biscuit, Magnum, Seattle Ridge.

 

Glide avalanche on south face of Eddies – take a close look as the bed surface (ground) could be mistaken for rocks. The debris in this photo covered recent ski tracks – likely released sometime 1/4 or early on 1/5. Photo: Alan Abel.

 

Glide cracks and an older portion that released (avalanched) Dec. 27/28 – note the small crack opening up on the upper left of photo. These could avalanche at any moment. Photo: Trip Kinney.

 

 

Glide crack under Tincan’s Hippy Bowl. These are now opening up at lower elevations. Photo: Mark Turner. 

Weather
Sun, January 6th, 2019

Yesterday:   Mostly clear skies were over the region. Ridgetop winds were light from a generally west direction (5-10mph). Temperatures remain cold and inverted; minus single digits in the parking lots and the low teens F along ridgelines.

Today:    Mostly clear skies will be over the area again today. Ridgetop winds are expected to remain light, 5-10mph, from the NW. Temperatures stay cold (-10 to 0F) at the lower elevations and in valley bottoms as an inversion remains. Ridgeline temperatures are only slightly warmer at 5-10F… burrr…

Tomorrow:    Sunny skies and cold temps are on tap to remain into the week. There is a chance for some clouds and snow flurries on Tuesday. Ridgetop winds at this point look to remain light from a NW direction.  

*Seattle Ridge weather station was heavily rimed and the anemometer (wind sensor) was destroyed. We are currently working to replace it.  

PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

  Temp Avg (F) Snow (in) Water (in) Snow Depth (in)
Center Ridge (1880′) 6   0   0   58  
Summit Lake (1400′) -6 0   0   19  
Alyeska Mid (1700′) 7   0   0   46  

RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

  Temp Avg (F) Wind Dir Wind Avg (mph) Wind Gust (mph)
Sunburst (3812′) 11   W   5   16  
Seattle Ridge (2400′) 12   *N/A   *N/A     *N/A    
Observations
Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass
Date Region Location
12/08/19 Turnagain Avalanche: Tincan
12/06/19 Turnagain Avalanche: Sunburst
12/04/19 Turnagain Observation: Sunburst
12/03/19 Turnagain Observation: Hippy Bowl
12/01/19 Turnagain Observation: Tincan, All elevations
12/01/19 Turnagain Observation: Tincan
11/30/19 Turnagain Observation: Tincan Treeline Plateau/ Common Bowl/ Ridge
11/29/19 Turnagain Observation: Sunburst Ob #2
11/29/19 Turnagain Observation: Sunburst Ob #1
11/27/19 Turnagain Observation: Tincan
Riding Areas
Updated Mon, December 02nd, 2019

Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us

Area Status Weather & Riding Conditions
Glacier District
Johnson Pass
Closed
Closed.
Placer River
Closed
Closed.
Skookum Drainage
Closed
Closed.
Turnagain Pass
Closed
Closed.
Twentymile
Closed
Closed.
Seward District
Carter Lake
Closed
Closed.
Lost Lake Trail
Closed
Closed.
Primrose Trail
Closed
Closed.
Resurrection Pass Trail
Closed
Closed. Will be open for the 2019/20 season pending adequate snow cover.
Snug Harbor
Closed
Closed.
South Fork Snow River Corridor
Closed
Closed.
Summit Lake
Closed
Closed.

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