Turnagain Pass RSS

Archives
ARCHIVED - Forecasts expire after 24 hours.
Issued
Fri, December 21st, 2018 - 7:00AM
Expires
Sat, December 22nd, 2018 - 7:00AM
Forecaster
Heather Thamm
Avalanche risk The Bottom Line

The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE at all elevations for the mountains surrounding Turnagain Pass. Trigging a storm slab 3-4′ deep is likely in avalanche terrain due to a massive storm that ended yesterday morning. Triggering an unmanageable loose snow avalanche that entrains and picks up momentum is also a real concern. Today’s message is simple, let this storm settle and give the plow drivers time and space to clear parking areas. This also includes Girdwood, Portage, Johnson Pass, and Lynx Creek drainages that received 2-3+’ of snow during this last storm.

SUMMIT LAKE:  In Summit Lake a very weak and shallow snowpack exists and human triggered avalanche 2+’ thick are likely in avalanche terrain.  

LOST LAKE:  This zone is out of our advisory area, but observations yesterday show the potential for triggering slab avalanches 2-3′ thick on an older weak layer within the snowpack.  If headed to this area pay attention for signs of instability like collapsing and recent avalanches.

Special Announcements

Many riding areas on the Chugach National Forest have opened, but parking is a REAL CONCERN in Turnagain Pass! A Forest order submitted for a Turnagain motorized opening happened to coincide with an unexpected 4ft sleeper storm. The USFS and AK DOT are requesting both motorized and non-motorized users to avoid Turnagain Pass today due to very limited parking. Parking on the road and riding around the motorized lot will prevent plow operators from being able to clear these lots and delay the process through a busy holiday period. This is also serious safety issue. Should you go to Turnagian Pass today, consider heading South of Summit Lake where parking is not an issue.

If you’re thinking of heading to Hatcher Pass be aware of dangerous avalanche conditions in this zone. Check out the Hatcher Pass Avalanche Center mid-week summary  HERE.  

Fri, December 21st, 2018
Alpine
Above 2,500'
3 - Considerable
Avalanche risk
Treeline
1,000'-2,500'
3 - Considerable
Avalanche risk
Below Treeline
Below 1,000'
3 - Considerable
Avalanche risk
0 - No Rating
1 - Low
2 - Moderate
3 - Considerable
4 - High
5 - Extreme
Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk Avalanche risk
Travel Advice Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of Avalanches Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and Distribution Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. Very large avalanches in many areas.
Avalanche Problem 1
  • Storm Slabs
    Storm Slabs
  • Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
    Likelihood
  • Historic (D4-5)
    Very Large (D3)
    Large (D2)
    Small (D1)
    Size
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Likelihood of Avalanches
Terms such as "unlikely", "likely", and "certain" are used to define the scale, with the chance of triggering or observing avalanches increasing as we move up the scale. For our purposes, "Unlikely" means that few avalanches could be triggered in avalanche terrain and natural avalanches are not expected. "Certain" means that humans will be able to trigger avalanches on many slopes, and natural avalanches are expected.

Size of Avalanches
Avalanche size is defined by the largest potential avalanche, or expected range of sizes related to the problem in question. Assigned size is a qualitative estimate based on the destructive classification system and requires specialists to estimate the harm avalanches may cause to hypothetical objects located in the avalanche track (AAA 2016, CAA 2014). Under this schema, "Small" avalanches are not large enough to bury humans and are relatively harmless unless they carry people over cliffs or through trees or rocks. Moving up the scale, avalanches become "Large" enough to bury, injure, or kill people. "Very Large" avalanches may bury or destroy vehicles or houses, and "Historic" avalanches are massive events capable of altering the landscape.

Signal Word Size (D scale) Simple Descriptor
Small 1 Unlikely to bury a person
Large 2 Can bury a person
Very Large 3 Can destroy a house
Historic 4 & 5 Can destroy part or all of a village
More info at Avalanche.org

STORM SLABS: A surprise storm that ended yesterday morning dumped 46” (~4’ and 3.4” SWE) of snow in Turnagain Pass to Johnson Pass. This storm arrived with moderate ridgetop winds and very low-density snow. Natural storm slabs and loose snow avalanches were seen across the forecast zone from Girdwood to Portage.  Triggering a storm slab in terrain 35 degrees and steeper today will be an unmanageable hazard. This new snow has been settling, but moderate ridgetop winds may make this new snow more cohesive and slab-like in the alpine. As always it’s important to give all big storms a few days of rest before easing into steeper terrain. In addition we may see 4-8 inches of additional snow today.

LOOSE SNOW AVALANCHES are a very real concern due 4′ of very low-density snow. Triggering a loose snow avalanche could be large and unmanageable. This kind of snow sould easily knock you off your feet and bury you. Avoid all steep terrain features (large and small) over 35 degrees and be extra aware of hidden depressions and creek drainages. Remember that the lower elevations prior to this storm didn’t have much snow coverage. 

Climbing over the second berm into the Center Ridge Parking area. Snow totals in the parking lot were measured at 47″ at 1:30pm yesterday. 

  

 

Climbing out of Center Ridge Parking lot yesterday. In the background is Seattle Ridge. Many of the gullys on Seattle were full of fresh debris and numerous storm slab crown could be seen with binos.   

Avalanche Problem 2
  • Persistent Slabs
    Persistent Slabs
  • Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
    Likelihood
  • Historic (D4-5)
    Very Large (D3)
    Large (D2)
    Small (D1)
    Size
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Likelihood of Avalanches
Terms such as "unlikely", "likely", and "certain" are used to define the scale, with the chance of triggering or observing avalanches increasing as we move up the scale. For our purposes, "Unlikely" means that few avalanches could be triggered in avalanche terrain and natural avalanches are not expected. "Certain" means that humans will be able to trigger avalanches on many slopes, and natural avalanches are expected.

Size of Avalanches
Avalanche size is defined by the largest potential avalanche, or expected range of sizes related to the problem in question. Assigned size is a qualitative estimate based on the destructive classification system and requires specialists to estimate the harm avalanches may cause to hypothetical objects located in the avalanche track (AAA 2016, CAA 2014). Under this schema, "Small" avalanches are not large enough to bury humans and are relatively harmless unless they carry people over cliffs or through trees or rocks. Moving up the scale, avalanches become "Large" enough to bury, injure, or kill people. "Very Large" avalanches may bury or destroy vehicles or houses, and "Historic" avalanches are massive events capable of altering the landscape.

Signal Word Size (D scale) Simple Descriptor
Small 1 Unlikely to bury a person
Large 2 Can bury a person
Very Large 3 Can destroy a house
Historic 4 & 5 Can destroy part or all of a village
More info at Avalanche.org

We have been monitoring a facet/crust issue mid-pack between 2000-3000’. Prior to this storm this layer was not showing reactivity and so far there has been no known natural activity on this layer in Turnagain Pass. However, with the addition of 4′ of new snow, uncertainty remains. This is an additional reason to let the snowpack settle out and to give these layers more time to adjust. 

In the Summit Lake zone there is much more potential for triggering a slab on facets near the ground. Several natural avalanches were seen yesterday on the far Northern end of Summit Pass that may have stepped down into older layers of the snow pack. We have a lot of observations over the last week that demonstrate propagation potential within older weak layers (facet/crust mid-pack and near the ground.) New snow in Summit Lake will be adding stress to these layers and human triggered avalanches are a concern. Look out for whumpfing, cracking, and recent avalanches. Please keep in mind that there is no snowpack info from Johnson Pass and Lynx Creek, which often have a similar snowpack structure as Summit Lake.

SE aspect where storm slabs stepped down to an older deep layer in the zone between Summit and Johnson Pass near the Hope Wye. 

 

If you head to Lost Lake be aware of triggering a slab 2-3′ in an older weak layer of the snowpack. This picture was taken yesterday and the timing of this avalanche is unknown and may be a natural avalanche from a different day. Photo and observation courtesy of Iron (iii) Oxide.

Additional Concern
  • Glide Avalanches
    Glide Avalanches
Glide Avalanches
Glide Avalanches are the release of the entire snow cover as a result of gliding over the ground. Glide avalanches can be composed of wet, moist, or almost entirely dry snow. They typically occur in very specific paths, where the slope is steep enough and the ground surface is relatively smooth. They are often proceeded by full depth cracks (glide cracks), though the time between the appearance of a crack and an avalanche can vary between seconds and months. Glide avalanches are unlikely to be triggered by a person, are nearly impossible to forecast, and thus pose a hazard that is extremely difficult to manage.
More info at Avalanche.org

Glide cracks we know about are on Sunburst’s SW face under the weather station, SW face of Tincan Proper, Gold Pan area (behind Cornbiscuit/Magnum) and Moose Mt in Summit Lake and crack that did release in the Johnson Pass area. These cracks can release at any moment. They are not associated with human triggers and the best way to manage the hazard is to avoid being on or beneath slopes with cracks. 

Weather
Fri, December 21st, 2018

Yesterday: Skies were broken to overcast. Snow showers were intermitent with a few inches to trace of new snow across the region. Ridgetop winds were light from the East. Temperatures were in the single digits to teens near ridgetops and low 20F’s near sea level.

Today: Expect snow showers throughout the day with 4-8 inches of snow possible. Ridgetop winds are expected to be 10-20 mph with gusts in the mid 20’s mph. Temperatures will increase from the teens to mid 20F’s in the mid and upper elevations.  

Tomorrow: Temperatures may reach low 30F’s tomorrow morning near sea level. More winter weather is expected as another low tracks into our region. Snow showers will continue tomorrow and into Sunday.

*Seattle Ridge weather station is rimed over and not recording any data.  

PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

  Temp Avg (F) Snow (in) Water (in) Snow Depth (in)
Center Ridge (1880′) 16    0.2 2   72  
Summit Lake (1400′) 8    0.1 1   18  
Alyeska Mid (1700′) 18   0.1   2   37  

RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

  Temp Avg (F) Wind Dir Wind Avg (mph) Wind Gust (mph)
Sunburst (3812′) 11   NE   8   31  
Seattle Ridge (2400′) *NA   *NA     *NA     *NA    
Observations
Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass
Date Region Location
10/27/24 Turnagain Observation: Tincan
10/21/24 Turnagain Observation: Turnagain Pass Road Observation
10/19/24 Turnagain Observation: Tincan – Below Todds Run
10/18/24 Turnagain Observation: Taylor Pass
10/15/24 Turnagain Observation: Tincan Common
10/14/24 Turnagain Avalanche: Tincan
05/13/24 Turnagain Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South
05/13/24 Turnagain Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side
05/12/24 Turnagain Observation: Warm up Bowl
05/07/24 Turnagain Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs
Riding Areas

The riding areas page has moved. Please click here & update your bookmarks.


Subscribe to Turnagain Pass
Avalanche Forecast by Email

This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.