Thu, December 20, 2018 Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast

Thu, December 20th, 2018

Alpine
Above 2,500'

High (4)

Treeline
1,000'-2,500'

High (4)

Below Treeline
Below 1,000'

High (4)

Alpine Above 2,500'		High (4)
Treeline 1,000'-2,500'		High (4)
Below Treeline Below 1,000'		High (4)

Danger Scale:

No Rating (0)

Low (1)

Moderate (2)

Considerable (3)

High (4)

Extreme (5)

Avalanche Problem 1

Storm Slabs
Almost Certain

Very Likely

Likely

Possible

Unlikely

Likelihood
Historic

Very Large

Large

Small

Size

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Likelihood of Avalanches

Terms such as "unlikely", "likely", and "certain" are used to define the scale, with the chance of triggering or observing avalanches increasing as we move up the scale. For our purposes, "Unlikely" means that few avalanches could be triggered in avalanche terrain and natural avalanches are not expected. "Certain" means that humans will be able to trigger avalanches on many slopes, and natural avalanches are expected.

Size of Avalanches

Avalanche size is defined by the largest potential avalanche, or expected range of sizes related to the problem in question. Assigned size is a qualitative estimate based on the destructive classification system and requires specialists to estimate the harm avalanches may cause to hypothetical objects located in the avalanche track (AAA 2016, CAA 2014). Under this schema, "Small" avalanches are not large enough to bury humans and are relatively harmless unless they carry people over cliffs or through trees or rocks. Moving up the scale, avalanches become "Large" enough to bury, injure, or kill people. "Very Large" avalanches may bury or destroy vehicles or houses, and "Historic" avalanches are massive events capable of altering the landscape.

Signal Word	Size (D scale)	Simple Descriptor
Small	1	Unlikely to bury a person
Large	2	Can bury a person
Very Large	3	Can destroy a house
Historic	4 & 5	Can destroy part or all of a village

More info at Avalanche.org

Today we recommend avoiding the backcountry due to HIGH avalanche danger. Heavy snow has been falling over the last 24 hours and is expected to continue through early afternoon. The estimated snowfall for Turnagain Pass is 4-5’ and more snow is expected through early afternoon. Snowfall rates have been in the 6”/hour (0.2 – 0.3” SWE/hr) overnight at the Turnagain Pass SNOTEL and 1-2”/hour in Portage and Girdwood. This is an unprecedented amount of snow in a very short period of time and natural avalanches could run far distances and very fast. Avoid all avalanche terrain including slopes steeper than 30 degrees and stay far away from any runout zones. In Portage Valley where channeled terrain runs to sea level avoid any trails with steep slopes above, like Byron Glacier trail. As an alternative to the backcountry, consider going to Alyeska!!! Santa’s ski for free today.

24-hour Precip:

Turnagain Pass SNOTEL: estimated 4-5 feet (3.4” SWE)
Portage Valley: 22” (1.03” SWE)
Girdwood – Alyeska Midway: 20” (1.04” SWE)
Summit Lake: 10” (0.4” SWE)

The snow stake at Turnagain Pass DOT lot shows ~ 3-4 feet of new snow in the last 24 hours.

Crowns from natural storm snow avalanches were seen yesterday in the Girdwood Valley at around 2500′. In this zone there was 13″ new snow mid-afternoon.

Avalanche Problem 2

Persistent Slabs
Almost Certain

Very Likely

Likely

Possible

Unlikely

Likelihood
Historic

Very Large

Large

Small

Size

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Likelihood of Avalanches

Size of Avalanches

Signal Word	Size (D scale)	Simple Descriptor
Small	1	Unlikely to bury a person
Large	2	Can bury a person
Very Large	3	Can destroy a house
Historic	4 & 5	Can destroy part or all of a village

More info at Avalanche.org

In thinner snowpack zones such as Summit Lake we are tracking buried layers of facets, crusts and buried surface hoar that sit 2-3′ under the snow surface. 10” of snow has fallen over night in Summit Lake and 6-12” is possible today. This new snow and moderate ridgetop winds may be adding more stress to an already weak snowpack. Triggering a slab near the ground is likely in avalanche terrain. The Lynx Creek and Johnson Pass zone have little to no snowpack data and often have a similar snowpack to Summit Lake. These zones are now open to snowmachining and this area likely received 2-3’ of snow in the last 24 hours. Today is not the day to push into Johnson and Lynx. HIGH avalanche danger is expected in this zone similar to Turnagain Pass.

Weather

Thu, December 20th, 2018

Yesterday: Heavy snowfall started around 8am and has continued through this morning. An estimated 4-5′ has fallen at Turnagain Pass (3.4 € SWE.) The Portage Rail Road Weather station is reporting 22 € at sea level (1.03 € SWE) and Alyeska midway is similar. Temperatures have remained in the mid to low 20F’s in the lower elevations and in the teens F at ridgetops. Ridgetop winds have been from the East 15- 30mph with some higher gust.

Today: A band of moisture and low pressure continue to pump snow through the Eastern Turnagain Arm region (North of Moose Pass to Girdwood.) The weather service has issued a winter storm warning with an additional 6-16″ is possible through early afternoon. Temperatures are expected to remain in the low 20F’s to low teens (F). Ridgetop winds will be light to moderate.

Tomorrow: An active weather pattern will continue tomorrow into the weekend with more snow showers in the forecast. Temperatures are expected to be in the 20F’s with light to moderate winds.

*Seattle Ridge weather station is rimed over and not recording any data.

PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

	Temp Avg (F)	Snow (in)	Water (in)	Snow Depth (in)
Center Ridge (1880′)	20	46″	3.4	85
Summit Lake (1400′)	16	10″	0.4	23
Alyeska Mid (1700′)	20	20″	1.04	40

RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)

	Temp Avg (F)	Wind Dir	Wind Avg (mph)	Wind Gust (mph)
Sunburst (3812′)	13	ENE	14	37
Seattle Ridge (2400′)	*N/A	*N/A	*N/A	*N/A

Observations

Recent Observations for Turnagain Pass

Date	Region	Location	Observer
01/20/21	Turnagain	Observation: Sunburst	Johnston-Bloom / Roberts Forecaster
01/19/21	Turnagain	Avalanche: Cornbiscuit	Schauer/ Johnston-Bloom Forecaster
01/19/21	Turnagain	Avalanche: Sunburst and Tincan	CNFAIC Staff
01/19/21	Turnagain	Avalanche: Seattle Ridge	CNFAIC Staff
01/19/21	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan 2900′ SW aspect below Hippy Bowl.	Kris Marshall
01/18/21	Turnagain	Observation: Turnagain Pass Road Obs.	A Schauer Forecaster
01/16/21	Turnagain	Avalanche: Tincan Trees	A Schauer Forecaster
01/15/21	Turnagain	Observation: Sunburst	Schauer/ Wunnicke Forecaster
01/13/21	Turnagain	Observation: Tincan	Johnston-Bloom / Moderow Forecaster
01/13/21	Turnagain	Observation: Center Ridge Meadows	Alaska Avalanche School Rec Level 1 Roberts

Riding Areas

Updated Tue, January 12th, 2021

Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us

Area	Status	Weather & Riding Conditions
Glacier District
Johnson Pass	Open	No parking in turnaround at end of the road near the outhouse.
Placer River	Open	Early season conditions exist, including thin ice on rivers, swamps and lakes. Please do not ride along Railroad tracks. Cross tracks at 90 degree angle and clear the right of way.
Skookum Drainage	Open	Early season conditions exist, including thin ice on rivers, swamps and lakes. Please do not ride along Railroad tracks. Cross tracks at 90 degree angle and clear the right of way.
Turnagain Pass	Open
Twentymile	Closed
Seward District
Carter Lake	Open
Lost Lake Trail	Open
Primrose Trail	Open
Resurrection Pass Trail	Closed	Closed for the 2020/21 winter season.
Snug Harbor	Open
South Fork Snow River Corridor	Open
Summit Lake	Open