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The avalanche danger is MODERATE above 1000′. Triggering a large, destructive slab avalanche 2-4+ feet thick is possible on all aspects and may be remotely triggered. Watch for wind slabs along ridgelines and avoid cornices. Pay attention to afternoon warming. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully.
Below 1000′ avalanche danger is LOW where a stout surface crust has formed.
Heads up in the Eagle River area and North to Hatcher Pass where strong winds this week have triggered many large and destructive natural avalanches. Check out our observations page HERE for information about avalanche activity over the past week region-wide.
Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Triggering an deep slab avalanche 2-4+ feet thick remains a scary possibility. Strong Northwest winds that ended Thursday morning loaded a variety of aspects and scoured many ridge lines. Shaded aspects (North to Northeast) may be more loaded with this unusual wind direction. All aspects are suspect due to well preserved and widespread buried surface hoar and facets under a thick, connected slab 2-4+ feet thick. A thin sun crust on solar aspects may soften in the afternoon with the sun and remember daily warming in the mid 30F’s can make it easier to trigger a slab. Our current hard-pack snow conditions are deceiving and may give the appearance of ‘stable snow’. Knowing where in the terrain a large and destructive avalanche could be triggered is a difficult question. It may be the 10th person onto the slope that finds a thin part of the snowpack (a trigger point) or it could be a person triggering a slab remotely on an adjacent slope or below. This was the case on Tuesday in Girdwood when a helicopter remotely triggered an avalanche from 1/4 mile away. There is a lot of uncertainty around this avalanche problem and just how stubborn it will be to trigger now that winds have mellowed out.
With a deep slab problem it is important to remember no signs of instability may be present before a slope releases. Thin spots near rocks and along ridgelines are likely trigger points. Take a moment to visualize the consequences if the slope does slide. How far would a very large avalanche run in this terrain? Are there terrain traps below?
Natural avalanche on a NE aspect of Raggedtop was first noticed Tuesday morning and is a good example of the size and distance a very large avalanche could run.
An avalanche triggered Tuesday in Girdwood near Notch Mountain at 2500′. This slab was 3-6′ deep and failed on facets on top of a slick crust, bed surface.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Wind Slabs: Wind slabs have formed on a variety of aspects due to unusual loading patterns and cross loading from strong Northwest winds this week. Smooth supportable surfaces where the snow is hollow sounding are suspect, especially if the slope is unsupported. Look for cracking and identify terrain features with a pillow-shaped look where triggering a wind slab could break above you. Warming from the sun can make triggering easier in the afternoon, and a wind slab could step down to older snow and create a much deeper and more dangerous avalanche.
Cornices: Cornices are large and looming and the sun and above freezing temperatures can make them more unstable. Give cornices lots of space and limit exposure underneath them.
Northern aspect of Magnum with recent wind loading from several days of strong NW winds. In Turnagain Pass this wind direction can funnel through some terrain from the South and load Northern aspects.
Yesterday skis were clear and Northwest winds were to 5-15mph. Day time high temperatures near sea level were in the mid 30F’s and overnight dipped into the teens F. Upper elevation temperatures became slightly inverted – with temperatures increasing from low teens (F) yesterday morning to mid 20F’s overnight. No precipitation was recorded.
Today expect skies to remain clear and sunny. Winds will be light and variable. Daytime temperatures may reach the mid 30F’s in the upper elevations and low 40F’s at sea level. Overnight temperatures will drop back into the teens F at all elevations.
Saturday will be partly cloudy with light winds similar daily temperatures (15F – 35F.) Sunday will be overcast as Low pressure moves into our region with the first chance for precip Sunday evening into Monday. At this point precipitation type and amounts are uncertain.
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
Center Ridge (1880′) | 21 | 0 | 0 | 80 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 14 | 0 | 0 | 32 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 20 | 0 | 0 | 75 |
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
Sunburst (3812′) | ||||
Seattle Ridge (2400′) |
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
10/27/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan | Michael Kerst |
10/21/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Road Observation | Trevor Clayton |
10/19/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan – Below Todds Run | Andy Moderow |
10/18/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Taylor Pass | Eli Neuffer |
10/15/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan Common | John Sykes Forecaster |
10/14/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | CNFAC Staff |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South | H Thamm |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side | Amy Holman |
05/12/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Warm up Bowl | Tony Naciuk |
05/07/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs | A S |
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