Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast
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The Bottom Line
The avalanche danger is MODERATE today above treeline where it will be possible to trigger wind slabs 1-2′ thick on steep leeward slopes. Avoid travel on or under cornices and steer clear of glide cracks. Watch for changing conditions as the next storm impacts the region.
| Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
| Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
| Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
| Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
| Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Cornices throughout the advisory area are very large and have the potential to be quite hazardous. A skier yesterday reported being caught off guard when one broke farther back than expected. Cornice fall can trigger avalanches on the slopes below or take you for a high consequence ride if you happen to go down with one in a bad spot. Give them a wide berth on ridgelines and limit time spent below.
Wind slabs: It will be possible to trigger old wind slabs on steep leeward slopes today. As the storm moves in with additional snow and wind, this may create new tender wind slab and add weight to already wind-loaded areas. Look for cracking, listen for hollow sounds and avoid stiff, pillowed snow.
Skier triggered cornice fall in Warm-up Bowl (-1 Bowl) yesterday. Photo: Wendy Wagner
| Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
| Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
| Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
| Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
| Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
We’ve still have literally hundreds of glide cracks littering the mid-elevations in and around Turnagain Pass. Many of these may not release at all, but we continue to see large and destructive glide cracks avalanching in or adjacent to popular ski terrain. Glide cracks are also widespread in high use snowmachine terrain and may release there just as easily! The bottom line is that they are completely unpredictable. It is best to minimize your exposure to this avalanche problem by avoiding time spent below glide cracks.
Glide cracks in Main Bowl (1st Bowl). Photo: Wendy Wagner
We are still not ready to say goodbye to the possibility of triggering a persistent slab in the periphery of our core advisory are. Observations Monday from the Lynx Creek drainage (South of Turnagain Pass) found a layer of buried surface hoar (BSH). Likely deposited during the high-pressure weekend of Jan.30/31, it’s now buried by a 2-3’ slab. This one data point Monday showed the BSH to be unreactive. That is good news, but given the nature of persistent weak layers, we are not comfortable saying this is not going to be a problem. We just don’t have enough information and this is a low probability, potentially high consequence set-up. There is still a chance of triggering an avalanche similar to the one in Groundhog Creek on January 30th, which luckily did not catch anyone. Ride slopes one at a time, park and regroup in safe areas and look for cracking and collapsing while traveling.
Yesterday started off partly cloudy and progressed to clear skies and lots of sunshine by the afternoon. Winds were light from the NE. Temperatures were in the mid-20Fs to mid-30Fs. There was a distinct warming period in the afternoon.
Today will be mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers increasing throughout the day. 1-2″ of snow is forecasted. The rain/snowline is expected to be around 1100′. Temperatures will be in high 20Fs to mid 30Fs. Winds will be Easterly, 10-20 mph with the potential for higher gusts.
Precipitation will increase overnight and the temperatures and rain/snowline will rise as the next warm, moist series of low pressure systems dictate the weather pattern.
| Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
| Center Ridge (1880′) | 30 | 0 | 0 | 107 |
| Summit Lake (1400′) | 30 | 0 | 0 | 31 |
| Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 30 | 0 | 0 | 92 |
| Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
| Sunburst (3812′) | 25 | NE | 10 | 31 |
| Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 27 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Date | Region | Location | Observer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/20/21 | Turnagain | Observation: Sunburst | Johnston-Bloom / Roberts Forecaster |
| 01/19/21 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Cornbiscuit | Schauer/ Johnston-Bloom Forecaster |
| 01/19/21 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Sunburst and Tincan | CNFAIC Staff |
| 01/19/21 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Seattle Ridge | CNFAIC Staff |
| 01/19/21 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan 2900′ SW aspect below Hippy Bowl. | Kris Marshall |
| 01/18/21 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Road Obs. | A Schauer Forecaster |
| 01/16/21 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan Trees | A Schauer Forecaster |
| 01/15/21 | Turnagain | Observation: Sunburst | Schauer/ Wunnicke Forecaster |
| 01/13/21 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan | Johnston-Bloom / Moderow Forecaster |
| 01/13/21 | Turnagain | Observation: Center Ridge Meadows | Alaska Avalanche School Rec Level 1 Roberts |
Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us
| Area | Status | Weather & Riding Conditions |
|---|---|---|
| Glacier District | ||
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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.
