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A MODERATE avalanche danger exists above 1000′ and LOW danger below treeline. As winds transport snow today, it’s possible for a human to trigger wind slabs on steep leeward slopes and cross-loaded gullies. Give cornices and glide cracks a wide berth.
*The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory beginning at noon today for snow and blowing snow along the Seward Highway.
Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Santa only brought us a trace of snow, but we’re expecting 4″-8″ starting this afternoon! Winds as low as 10-15mph are capable of transporting loose snow to the lee of ridges and gullies. Models indicate that winds will pick up today and average from 20-30mph at ridgetops. Any new or windblown snow will likely sit atop one or two recently formed weak layers (Surface hoar from Christmas Eve and Solstice) within the top 1′ of snow. If the blowing snow is bonding together, windslabs could be triggered.
Signs that windslabs could be forming:
Cornices: As always – give cornices a wide berth. As winds transport snow, cornices will continue to grow and may be easily triggered.
Cornice over Hippy Bowl on Tincan Ridge. Credit Troy Tempel.
Storm slabs: In steeper areas of treeline, and areas out of the wind, shallow soft slabs sitting atop a weak layer may be triggered.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
There are two glide cracks in the Tincan trees that we know of and many in the Corn Biscuit and Magnum area. Glide cracks are likely obscured and difficult to see with poor visibility and light snow covering cracks. As always, avoid or limit time under glide cracks as they are unpredictable.
In the high Alpine, above 3,000′, we have been tracking a weak layer of snow sitting near the base of the snowpack. This weak layer is buried anywhere from 1-6+ feet deep due to the variable wind loading during the December storm cycles. There has been a lingering concern a person could trigger a large avalanche if they hit the wrong spot. Data is pointing to this layer being dormant as this point. However, we will keep it on the radar especially in areas where the overall snowpack is shallower – towards the southern end of Turnagain Pass, in Summit Lake and in the Crow Pass terrain north of Girdwood.
Yesterday: Partly cloudy skies were over the region with a few snow flurries here and there. Only a trace to 2″ of snow is being reported at the snow stations. Ridgetop winds have been light from the east with gusts to 20mph. Temperatures remained in the upper teens along ridgetops and in the twenties at 1,000′.
Today: Cloudy skies are forecast with snowfall expected to begin around noon today. Between 2-4″ of new low density snow is expected today (.2-.4″ of water equivalent) at sea level and 4-8″ the high elevations and areas closer to Portage Valley and Turnagain Arm. Ridgetop winds will increase to the 20-30mph range from the East. Temperatures are on a decline and should sit near 20F at 1,000′ and near 10F along ridgetops.
Tomorrow: Cloudy skies with intermittent snow and easterly ridgetop winds 15-30mph are expected. Periods of snow showers will be over Southcentral for the remainder of the week. A chance for a larger snowfall event is taking shape for this weekend.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | 22 | trace | trace | 30 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 18 | trace | trace | 8 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 22 | 2 | 0.1 | 20 |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | 17 | E | 7 | 22 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | N/A* | N/A* | N/A* | N/A* |
*Rime has covered the wind sensor on Seattle Ridge.
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
10/27/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan | Michael Kerst |
10/21/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Road Observation | Trevor Clayton |
10/19/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan – Below Todds Run | Andy Moderow |
10/18/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Taylor Pass | Eli Neuffer |
10/15/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan Common | John Sykes Forecaster |
10/14/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | CNFAC Staff |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South | H Thamm |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side | Amy Holman |
05/12/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Warm up Bowl | Tony Naciuk |
05/07/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs | A S |
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