Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast
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The avalanche danger remains MODERATE above 1,000′. Human triggered wind slab avalanches are possible on slopes over 30 degrees with wind deposited snow. These are likely to be 4-12″ thick and could be more touchy than expected. Additionally, very shallow soft storm slabs (4-8″ thick) may be found in areas out of the wind and later in the day as a few inches of snow accumulates. As always, watch your sluff and avoid being under glide cracks.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Another round of snow is expected today, Christmas Eve- and this time, should hit most of Southcentral. Light snowfall should begin late morning in the Girdwood/Turnagain Pass area. Between 2-4″ is forecast to accumulate by the evening with 3-6″ falling in the higher terrain. Easterly ridgetop winds are slated to pick up into the teens and possibly up to 25mph. These are perfect wind slab development speeds in areas the winds are transporting snow.
Image from our all-star weather forecasters at the National Weather Service!
The primary avalanche concern will be wind slab avalanches. These are expected to be touchy as they are not likely to bond well to the surface underneath. Remember the clear weather last weekend? This old snow surface, blanked in surface hoar and pictured below, is now buried under Sunday’s snow and will become buried a bit more with today’s snow. What to watch for if headed out:
These are all signs the new snow is unstable and could avalanche on slopes steep enough to slide. Due to the smaller amounts of new snow, slabs should be on the smaller side- 4-12″ thick. The size of a potential avalanche is completely dependent upon the new snow amounts and size of the terrain, or slope in question. Quick hand pits are also good ways to test if the recent layer of snow is bonding to the old surface.
Storm slabs: In the treeline band and areas out of the wind with over 6″ of new snow since the weekend, shallow soft slabs may be found.
Sluffs: With the new low density snow, triggering sluffs on steep slopes should be fairly easy.
Solstice Surface Hoar photos: Left, Allen Dahl and right, Troy Tempel.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Glide cracks are likely obscured and difficult to see with the poor visibility and light snow covering cracks. They are still there however, hanging out under rocky cliffs and rolling slopes. There are two in the Tincan Trees we know of and many in the Corn Biscuit and Magnum area. As always, limit/avoid time under these as they can release spontaneously at any time.
Glide cracks in the Gold Pan region of Turnagain Pass. This area is in the upper north zone of Bertha Creek, behind the Corn Biscuit/Magnum ridges. Thank you to Eric Parsons for the photo!
In the high Alpine, above 3,000′, we have been tracking a weak layer of snow sitting near the base of the snowpack. This weak layer is buried anywhere from 1-6+ feet deep due to the variable wind loading during the December storm cycles. There has been a lingering concern a person could trigger a large avalanche if they hit the wrong spot. Data is pointing to this layer being dormant as this point. However, we will keep it on the radar especially in areas where the overall snowpack is shallower – towards the southern end of Turnagain Pass, in Summit Lake and in the Crow Pass terrain north of Girdwood.
Yesterday: Partly cloudy skies were over the region with a few snow flurries here and there. Only a trace of snow is being reported at the snow stations. Ridgetop winds have been light from the east, blowing in the 5-10mph range. Temperatures remained in the upper teens along ridgetops and low teens at 1,000′.
Today: Cloudy skies are forecast with snowfall beginning in the late morning. Between 2-4″ of new low density snow is expected, to sea level (.2-.3″ of water equivalent). Double these amounts are possible at the high elevations and areas closer to Portage Valley and Turnagain Arm. Ridgetop winds should start rising mid-day to the 15-20mph range from the East. Temperatures should stay cool, low 20’sF at 1,000′ and near 20F along ridgetops.
Tomorrow: Another front moves over the region Christmas Day and should bring another chance for a few inches of snow, warming temperatures (yet still snow to sea level) and easterly ridgetop winds. An unsettled weather pattern bringing periods of snow showers will be over Southcentral for the remainder of the week.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | 21 | trace | trace | 30 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 12 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 19 | trace | trace | 18 |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | 18 | E | 5 | 14 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | N/A* | N/A* | N/A* | N/A* |
*Rime has covered the wind sensor on Seattle Ridge once again.
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
05/22/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | Nick D'Alessio |
05/12/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan, Sunburst, Magnum, Cornbiscuit | Heather Thamm |
05/07/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan – Bear Tracks | CNFAIC Staff |
05/05/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Seattle Ridge | AS/ WW Forecaster |
05/02/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Cornbiscuit | Schauer/ Sturgess Forecaster |
05/02/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Seward Hwy Turnagain Pass | Joel Curtis |
04/30/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Magnum | Ayla, Kit Crosby, Barton |
04/29/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan | John Sykes |
04/28/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Taylor Pass/Pastoral | Schauer/ Creighton Forecaster |
04/28/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | Andy Moderow |
Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us
Area | Status | Weather & Riding Conditions |
---|---|---|
Glacier District |
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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.