Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast
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The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE in the Alpine and Treeline today. Human triggered wind slabs are likely in steep leeward terrain and natural avalanches are possible as wind-loading continues today. Careful route-finding is advised. Look for signs of instability and steer clear of cornices and glide cracks. Below Treeline there is the concern that a natural avalanche from above may run to lower elevations in channeled terrain.
*The National Weather Service Winter Weather Advisory will continue until 5pm today for snow and blowing snow along the Seward Highway.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
The region has picked up 6″ to a foot of new snow in the last 24 hrs. The winds were easterly and sustained 10-20 mph with gusts into the 40s. Today a few more inches of snow are forecast to fall. The winds have shifted to the west/northwest and look to be strong enough to transport snow until this evening. Expect wind slabs on steep leeward slopes and in gully features exposed to the wind to be easily triggered by the weight of a person. Because of the continued active loading there is also a chance of natural avalanches today. Be mindful of the terrain above you. The new snow covered a layer of surface hoar and there is another buried layer a few inches deeper. These both have the potential to be reactive especially as the slab above becomes more cohesive with wind effect. Choose terrain carefully and look for signs of instability. What happens when you are breaking trail or if you step off the skin track? Cracking? Whumpfing?
Loose Snow Avalanches and Storm Slabs: On protected steep slopes watch for sluffing and/or small storm slabs. Does the snow seem light and fluffy and move with you or does the recent snow seem slightly stiffer than the snow below and start cracking? How well is the new snow bonding to the snow below? Hand pits and riding very small test slopes are a good way to look for storm slabs.
Cornices: Active wind transport will also make cornices larger, increase the chance of natural cornice falls and the potential to trigger them if you get too close. The shifting wind direction may also make new cornices in the opposite direction and make ridgeline travel more complex. Pay attention to loading patterns.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
As glide cracks fill in with new snow and wind-loading they may easily be forgotten. It will be important to look for them in the terrain as you move through. They may open and become more obvious again as skies clear and temperatures cool overnight. Remember glide avalanches are very unpredictable and that it’s not a good idea to linger under glide cracks.
In areas where the snow pack is shallower like Summit Lake, the south end of Turnagain and in the Crow Pass terrain north of Girdwood we have been tracking a weak layer of snow sitting near the base of the snowpack in the Alpine. There has been a lingering concern a person could trigger a large avalanche if they hit the wrong thin spot. Overall this layer appears to be dormant. However, with the active weather forecast into next week we will be monitoring potential reactivity with further loading.
Yesterday: Skies were cloudy and snow fell throughout the day and into the evening. Winds were easterly 10-20 mph gusting into the 40s. Temperatures were in the teens to mid 20°Fs. Overnight winds shifted to the west and light snow continued.
Today: Cloudy skies and snow showers in the morning. Another 1-3″ of snow is forecast. Temperatures will be in the teens to mid 20°Fs today. As skies begin to clear in the late afternoon temperatures will start to drop into the low teens and then down to the single digits overnight. Winds will be westerly 10-20 mph with gusts into the 40s. These should ease off early tomorrow morning.
Tomorrow: Mostly sunny skies in the morning with clouds increasing in the afternoon. Temperatures in the teens. Winds will be light and westerly. Snow starts again overnight into Saturday as the next storm moves into the area. The area looks to be in an active weather pattern into the New Year.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | 24 | 8 | 0.6 | 37 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 22 | 1 | 0.1 | 11 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 24 | 6 | 0.49 | 27 |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
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Sunburst (3812′) | 16 | NE | 13 | 49 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | NA* | NA* | NA* | NA* |
*Rime has covered the wind sensor on Seattle Ridge.
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
01/31/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Johnson Pass area | Megan Guinn / W Wagner Forecaster |
01/29/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan Backdoor | AAS-Level 1 1/27-1/30 |
01/28/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Sunburst | Brooke Edwards |
01/28/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Seattle Ridge | W Wagner |
01/28/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan Common | Tony Naciuk |
01/27/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Sunburst | John Sykes |
01/27/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Lynx Creek | Megan Guinn / W Wagner |
01/25/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Cornbiscuit | John Sykes Forecaster |
01/22/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | Schauer/ Guinn |
01/21/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Seattle Ridge | Elias Holt |
Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us
Area | Status | Weather & Riding Conditions |
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Glacier District |
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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.