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The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE today and likely to rise to HIGH danger tomorrow. Human triggered large avalanches remain likely in the mid and upper elevations on all aspects. Avalanches can be triggered by people on a slope or remotely, from the side or below. They could be up to 4′ deep and fail near the ground, taking the entire snowpack down the mountain. Several of these were triggered on Sunday with one person narrowly escaping.
Wednesday: A High Wind Watch and Special Weather Statement has been issued for the Turnagain Arm region.
*Very dangerous avalanche conditions exist and extreme caution in warranted. Careful terrain selection in critical to avoid being on or under slopes 30 degrees or steeper.
Motorized use: The Forest Service will be assessing snow cover conditions today in anticipation of opening certain areas to motorized use this week. See the ‘Riding Areas’ tab below for the most up to date information.
Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
Skies cleared on Sunday allowing for many people to venture into the higher terrain at Turnagain Pass. This was the first test of the snowpack since 16-24″ of snow fell on Friday night through Saturday. It didn’t take long for several large avalanches to be triggered by people. All but one was remotely triggered from either the side or top. Here is a rundown:
A big THANK YOU to the 10 people who passed along their information from these events. See all those reports HERE.
Tincan’s Hippy Bowl. Avalanche was triggered remotely by a skier on the low angle terrain on the looker’s left side. Skier was well out of the way and no one was caught. 11.22.20. Photo: Henry Munter
Sunburst, SW face, large avalanche that was triggered by skier on the slope. This avalanche also broke near the ground in facets. 11.22.20
Eddies avalanche in mid elevation rolling terrain, up to 1,000′ wide. This was remotely triggered from the side/top and no one was caught. Avalanche broke in buried surface hoar at the new/old snow interface and stepped down to the basal facets in places. 11.22.20. Photo: Andy Moderow
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
The proof is undeniable – we have a bad setup for human triggered large avalanches. Add to that, a lot of people, including myself, are stoked to start the winter and get into the backcountry. Several bullets were dodged on Sunday and the same conditions will persist through the Thanksgiving holiday.
It’s a HEADS UP situation. Several feet of recent storm snow sits on a very weak base of sugary faceted snow. This is keeping all the new snow from sticking well to the slopes and why people are able to trigger these large avalanches. Furthermore, a layer of buried surface hoar sits under last weekend’s storm snow and is likely to still be reactive. Hence slabs releasing around 2 feet deep are likely along with a slab that releases 3-4′ deep and near the ground.
Not only is watching out for RED FLAGS a wise decision, but simply letting the mountains do their thing and adjust to these new loads of snow. We all want to return back to the parking lots with high fives. Sticking to low angle slopes, and out from under larger slopes, is a great way to enjoy the new snow.
As a reminder, here are the Red Flags to look for:
– Recent avalanches
– Whumpfing (collapsing) of the snowpack
– Shooting cracks
Below is a look at the snowpack from Tincan on Sunday. Note the few inches of weak snow at the bottom of the snowpack.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Roughly a foot of new snow fell yesterday, Monday, and another 6-10″ of snow is expected tomorrow, Wednesday. This has been, and will be, accompanied by strong easterly winds. That said, storm snow avalanches will be likely, especially tomorrow.
With temperatures rising during tomorrow’s snowfall, making for an ‘upside down’ storm, expect shallow storm slabs to form. This is due to denser snow falling onto lighter snow. Additionally, wind slabs will be forming tomorrow as well. If they begin to release naturally, could step down and trigger a much larger natural avalanche. More reason to avoid avalanche terrain for the time being.
Yesterday: Light snow fell through the day above 1,000 adding another 2″ or so to the 10″ that fell Sunday night. Winds cranked from the east in the 40’s mph with gusts to 81 Sunday night before decreasing through the day (teens with gusts in the 20’s mph) yesterday.
Today: Mostly clear skis are forecast with light to moderate westerly winds (10-20mph). Temperatures should remain in the 20’sF above 1,000′.
Tomorrow: Another system arrives tonight and by tomorrow night 8-12″ of snow is expected. This is a warmer system and the rain/snow line should rise to 1,000′ by midday Wednesday before cooling back down. Winds are slated to be strong – 40-50mph with gusts in the 80’s or more from the east.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | 28 | 2 | 0.4 | 38 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 25 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 28 | 1 | 0.1 | 40 |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | 20 | E | 19 | 69 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 24 | *N/A | *N/A | *N/A |
*Seattle Ridge wind sensor is rimed over and not able to spin and record wind data.
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
10/27/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan | Michael Kerst |
10/21/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Road Observation | Trevor Clayton |
10/19/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan – Below Todds Run | Andy Moderow |
10/18/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Taylor Pass | Eli Neuffer |
10/15/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan Common | John Sykes Forecaster |
10/14/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | CNFAC Staff |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South | H Thamm |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side | Amy Holman |
05/12/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Warm up Bowl | Tony Naciuk |
05/07/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs | A S |
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