Turnagain Pass Avalanche Forecast
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The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE above 2,500′ where strong northwest winds are impacting the high terrain. Fresh wind slabs, up to a foot thick, are likely to form on leeward slopes. Any new wind slab will be likely to trigger and may release naturally in areas seeing the brunt of the winds. Below 2,500′ and on any slope not seeing wind effect, the danger is MODERATE. Triggering a slab breaking in old buried weak layers in the top few feet of the pack is still a concern. Pay attention to changing conditions and active wind loading.
SUMMIT LAKE/SNUG/LOST LAKE/SEWARD: Strong northwest winds are impacting these regions as well. Natural wind slab avalanches are possible and human triggered wind slabs are likely. Wind slab avalanches will have the potential to step down into deeper weak layers, producing a larger avalanche.
Hatcher Pass- HIGH avalanche danger: Dangerous avalanche conditions remain in this area. Large avalanches have been occurring with one covering the road yesterday. Please keep tabs on the Hatcher Pass Avalanche Center’s website and Facebook page.
Chugach State Park: A large natural avalanche was reported in the South Fork of Eagle River yesterday while strong southerly winds were impacting the area. We have also received additional information regarding the near miss on the north side of Gordon Lyon from April 1st. That has been compiled into one report HERE, including a striking video.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
The northwest winds are at it again. They are averaging this morning in the 20-25mph range and forecast to peak around midday near 30mph with stronger gusts. Despite the clear skies, these winds are bringing in single digit air and temperatures should stay quite chilly in the upper elevations. Lower, and even some mid elevations out of wind, could see enough daytime warming to melt the surface crusts, we’ll see.
The snow surface is quite variable and could sport a good amount of surface curst today in all but the mid and upper elevation shaded aspects. Yesterday’s warm snowfall event added 7-8″ of new moist snow in upper Girdwood Valley, 1-2″ at Turnagain Pass and 2-3″ in Summit Lake. Very warm afternoon temperatures melted southerly aspects (possibly to ridgetops) and likely some northerly aspects below 1,500′. How much soft dry surface snow is available for today’s winds to transport is the question.
Wind Slabs: Watching for active wind loading will be key today, and fairly obvious. Wind slabs could form on a variety of aspects, including on top of slick sun crusts or other old hard layers making them even easier to trigger. They are likely to be in the foot thick category and relegated to the higher terrain. These winds can funnel through Turnagain’s non-motorized side from the south, if so, they may not find much snow to transport, limiting wind slab development here, but again something to watch for if headed out. Other than active wind loading, watch for cracks that shoot out from you and hollow feeling snow where stiff snow sits over softer snow.
Loose snow avalanches (sluffs): If lower elevations warm enough this afternoon/evening, watch for wet sluffs on steep terrain features. Additionally, watch for dry sluffs on any shaded aspect with soft surface snow.
Seattle Ridge’s SE face, the road side, and the common motorized up-track. This slope is called Repeat Offender and the sun shining off the snow surface is a tell-tale sign a surface crust exists on this aspect. 4.3.21. Troy Tempel.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
As anyone who has been reading the forecast for a while now, we are still talking about a few layers of facets and buried surface hoar in the top three feet of the snowpack. It seems that the one or two layers in the top two feet or less are the ones that have been the most reactive, but these are getting harder to trigger. The most recent avalanches in these layers was a week ago in Summit Lake and over a week ago in Girdwood Valley. Shaded aspects, the ones that are most inviting with soft dry snow, are the most suspect place to trigger these now as southerly slopes have various sun crusts.
Knowing these layers are there, listening/feeling for whumpfing and watching for any other signs of instability are good things to keep in mind. As always, use good travel protocol, and consider the consequences if an avalanche does occur. Watch your partners, expose only one person at a time and know your save zones.
Snow pit from Notch Mtn area in upper Girdwood Valley two days ago, Saturday 4/3. Yesterday’s snow added 6-8″ on this surface. Two distinct layers of facets were found in the mid-elevations in the top two feet. These layers showed no signs of propagating, a good sign, but this is not the case everywhere.
Yesterday: Snowfall was heavy for a brief period yesterday morning in Girdwood (~6″ fell in just over 4 hours, total in Girdwood 7-8″ by the afternoon). Turnagain Pass saw around 1-2″ and Summit Lake 2-3″. Rain/snow line rose to near 500′ in the afternoon when precipitation was tailing off. Ridgetop winds were strong from a south and westerly direction 15-25mph with gusts to 50mph on Sunburst. Temperatures rose to near 40F in the evening as skies cleared at sea level and 25F along ridgelines.
Today: Clear, cold and windy. Skies cleared overnight and west to northwest winds picked up bringing in cold arctic air. We can expect ridgetops to see 25-35mph averages with stronger gusts. Temperatures should hit the single digits in the high elevations through the day while the lower elevations should remain in the 20’s-30’s with daytime warming.
Tomorrow: Clear skies should remain through Wednesday. The northwest winds look to slowly decrease starting Tuesday and even more so on Wednesday. Temperatures should begin to warm back up as the winds let up.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | N/A | 1-2 | 0.1 | 110 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | N/A | 2-3 | .2 | 48 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 29 | 7 | 0.5 | 121 |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | 20 | W | 17 | 50 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 25 | S | 10 | 19 |
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
05/22/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | Nick D'Alessio |
05/12/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan, Sunburst, Magnum, Cornbiscuit | Heather Thamm |
05/07/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan – Bear Tracks | CNFAIC Staff |
05/05/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Seattle Ridge | AS/ WW Forecaster |
05/02/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Cornbiscuit | Schauer/ Sturgess Forecaster |
05/02/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Seward Hwy Turnagain Pass | Joel Curtis |
04/30/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Magnum | Ayla, Kit Crosby, Barton |
04/29/23 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan | John Sykes |
04/28/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Taylor Pass/Pastoral | Schauer/ Creighton Forecaster |
04/28/23 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | Andy Moderow |
Status of riding areas across the Chugach NF is managed by the Glacier and Seward Ranger Districts, not avalanche center staff. Riding area information is posted as a public service to our users and updated based on snow depth and snow density to prevent resource damage at trailhead locations. Riding area questions contact: mailroom_r10_chugach@fs.fed.us
Area | Status | Weather & Riding Conditions |
---|---|---|
Glacier District |
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This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.