Turnagain Pass
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Today the avalanche danger is LOW this morning and could increase to CONSIDERABLE in the afternoon with sun effect and warm air temperatures. Pay attention to changing surface conditions. In the heat of the day natural moist loose snow avalanches are possible and human triggered sluffs will be likely. On steep slopes protected from the sun and wind, expect dry loose snow to be triggered easily. There is also a chance, with the warming and direct sun, of triggering a slab 1-2′ deep on buried surface hoar on solar aspects. As always give cornices and glide cracks a wide berth.
SUMMIT LAKE to SEWARD: In addition to watching for warming and solar effect, extra caution is advised. In much of the terrain the overall snowpack is thinner and triggering a large slab avalanche is possible due to a weaker snowpack. This area was also highly impacted by strong outflow winds last week.
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Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
Yesterday after warm overnight temperatures in the Alpine, sunshine, calm wind and then temperatures going above freezing in the the Alpine there were natural avalanches observed in the late afternoon. These were observed on southerly aspects below steep rocky areas. Most were loose snow avalanches but a few were slabs triggered by the loose snow.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
Yesterday there were natural loose snow avalanches observed in the heat of the day, large enough to bury a person. This could happen again today. Springtime avalanche conditions can be described as tricky because of so many subtle weather factors determining surface warming or straightforward depending on how you approach it. Will it get as warm and sunny as yesterday? That remains to seen. It may stay just cool enough to keep the surface snow locked up and crusty on sunny slopes and keep the hazard LOW all day or not… The question is, are you traveling in terrain that is getting impacted by direct sun or not? Playing the aspects is an easy way to avoid avalanche hazard on a day like today. If the surface of the snow is warming, you start to see small roller balls and/or small loose snow avalanches it’s time to switch to a shadier slope.
Moist/wet sluffs are notorious for being ‘heavier’ and larger than expected and can easily knock someone off their feet or machine and plow down to the valley bottom. They can also trigger a slab avalanche on the slope below resulting in an even larger avalanche.
Cornices: Avoid travel on cornices and don’t linger below.
Glide cracks: They are back… avoid travel below.
Dry loose snow avalanches: In shaded areas that were protected from the wind, the snowpack is faceting significantly and dry sluffs are becoming larger.
Signal Word | Size (D scale) | Simple Descriptor |
Small | 1 | Unlikely to bury a person |
Large | 2 | Can bury a person |
Very Large | 3 | Can destroy a house |
Historic | 4 & 5 | Can destroy part or all of a village |
As the days go by, we continue to assess a weak layer of snow that sits just 1-2 feet below the surface. This is composed of buried surface hoar and/or small facets. A lack of avalanche activity on this layer for the past several days and unremarkable pit results all point to this layer becoming more stubborn to trigger. However, it can’t be written off, especially with warming temperatures and direct sun in the Alpine. There was at least one natural slab avalanche reported yesterday that was triggered by a loose snow avalanche. The chance of triggering a slab is another good reason to switch to shaded aspects at the heat of the day.
As folks travel to more remote or peripheral areas of the forecast region, on traverses or big rides, remember the snowpack could be quite different. Paying attention to signs of recent avalanches, cracking/whumpfing, wind effect, and sun effect are all key. Also, keep in mind areas with a shallow snowpack are more likely places to find a slab that fails in the weak layer described above or other old weak snow buried in the pack. This includes the south end of Turnagain Pass, such as Twin Peaks and Silvertip to Summit Lake and over toward Palmer Creek and the Crow Pass area near Girdwood.
Yesterday: Mostly sunny skies with some thin high clouds and light winds. With an inversion in place temperatures were in the mid 20°Fs to high 30°Fs in the Alpine and teens to mid 20°Fs in the mid elevations. The low elevations had the biggest diurnal swing from below 0°F and single digits into the mid 20°Fs to low 30°Fs. Overnight skies were partly cloudy and winds were light. Temperatures dropped at all elevations but less at lower elevations and a little more in the Alpine than the night before with less of an inversion.
Today: Partly cloudy this morning becoming mostly clear during the day. Temperatures will be in the 20°Fs to mid 30°Fs. Winds will be westerly 5-10 mph with gusts into the teens. Clouds will increase overnight. Winds will be mostly light and easterly. Temperatures will be in the mid 20°Fs to mid 30°Fs.
Tomorrow: Cloudy skies and a chance of snow showers. East winds 5-10 mph and temperatures in the mid 20°Fs to low 30°s. Snow showers continue overnight into Wednesday morning. Winds remain easterly overnight and temperatures remain in the mid 20°Fs to low 30°s. Skies look to clear up later Wednesday morning with a window of clearing into Thursday.
PRECIPITATION 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Snow (in) | Water (in) | Snow Depth (in) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Center Ridge (1880′) | 22 | 0 | 0 | 66 |
Summit Lake (1400′) | 19 | 0 | 0 | 30 |
Alyeska Mid (1700′) | 21 | 0 | 0 | 77 |
RIDGETOP 24-hour data (6am – 6am)
Temp Avg (F) | Wind Dir | Wind Avg (mph) | Wind Gust (mph) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sunburst (3812′) | 29 | W | 3 | 14 |
Seattle Ridge (2400′) | 23 | S | 1 | 6 |
Date | Region | Location | Observer |
---|---|---|---|
10/27/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan | Michael Kerst |
10/21/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Road Observation | Trevor Clayton |
10/19/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan – Below Todds Run | Andy Moderow |
10/18/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Taylor Pass | Eli Neuffer |
10/15/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Tincan Common | John Sykes Forecaster |
10/14/24 | Turnagain | Avalanche: Tincan | CNFAC Staff |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Eddie’s, Sunburst, Seattle, Cornbiscuit, Pete’s South | H Thamm |
05/13/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass non-motorized side | Amy Holman |
05/12/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Warm up Bowl | Tony Naciuk |
05/07/24 | Turnagain | Observation: Turnagain Pass Wet Slabs | A S |
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